The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[XXR vs XXR]

32 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

MT

 

2019-03-05 15:00:25.729558 UTC
1	44.6%	Captain Marvel
2	11.6%	Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral
3	11.5%	How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
4	3%	The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part
5	3%	Green Book

Do you have BP at the same time?

[FlashMaster659]

4 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

Do you have BP at the same time?

2018-02-13 15:00:59.611502 UTC
1	42.8%	Black Panther
2	22.5%	Fifty Shades Freed
3	6.3%	Peter Rabbit
4	4.8%	15:17 to Paris, The
5	2.5%	Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

[dxmatrixdt]

what is the Over/Under looking like for Thursday #?

O/U $20, O/U $14??

[Eric Lasagna]

8 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

I can appreciate a desire for caution, and ultimately no past movie can provide a perfect proportional prediction for CM. Even when we have Thursday presale numbers, there will still be a huge range of possible openings based on more fundamental uncertainties. But I’m starting to get a vibe of people seeking out reasons not to believe the numbers because the numbers seem unbelievable, and I think that often detracts from accuracy more than adds.

I just don't want to set myself (and others) up for disappointment.

 

I don't wanna deal with meltdowns if this ends up hitting a measly $150M

[XXR vs XXR]

1 minute ago, Slave Animal Rights said:

what is the Over/Under looking like for Thursday #?

O/U $20, O/U $14??

$20m is a good one. It’ll do at least $18m and maybe upwards of $23-24m. 

[dxmatrixdt]

Just now, VenomXXR said:

$20m is a good one. It’ll do at least $18m and maybe upwards of $23-24m. 

is pre-sales data closely matching $20, though?  they can always lie about it in the end, upwards or downwards.

 

what about Mockingjay #s, were those shaved down??  were major cities lower in anticipation data than Catching Fire?

 

BATB did like 16....

[ThomasNicole]

6 minutes ago, Slave Animal Rights said:

is pre-sales data closely matching $20, though?  they can always lie about it in the end, upwards or downwards.

 

what about Mockingjay #s, were those shaved down??  were major cities lower in anticipation data than Catching Fire?

 

BATB did like 16....

This is beating everything except IW / BP.

 

$ 20M is a good bet... i’m Expecting $ 21M

[FlashMaster659]

Does the raw 24-hr ticket number on the Fandango tracker typically experience any drops on Tuesday? Because if it doesn't, CM is already looking very impressive once again today.

[Eric Lasagna]

5 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

Does the raw 24-hr ticket number on the Fandango tracker typically experience any drops on Tuesday? Because if it doesn't, CM is already looking very impressive once again today.

Yes and no. For upcoming movies (aka stuff coming out a week later), there's usually a decrease in ticket sales, due to cheap Tuesday. But for movies on their release week, there is almost always an increase. Though it's typically never anything huge.

[FlashMaster659]

5 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Yes and no. For upcoming movies (aka stuff coming out a week later), there's usually a decrease in ticket sales, due to cheap Tuesday. But for movies on their release week, there is almost always an increase. Though it's typically never anything huge.

Should've been more clear in what I meant. What I was asking was is the current number of tickets that CM is at right now (looks like around 39.7k right now) expected to go up or down by later tonight?

[HouseOfTheSun]

I’m going to split the difference between Catching Fire and BATB and say 167m

Edited March 5, 2019 by HouseOfTheSun

[Eric Lasagna]

5 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

Should've been more clear in what I meant. What I was asking was is the current number of tickets that CM is at right now (looks like around 39.7k right now) expected to go up or down by later tonight?

Maybe? It really depends on just how well presales do over the next few hours.

[el sid]

Normally Pulse is boring on Monday and Tuesday but not this time .
Pulse yesterday 8:35-8:49 EST:
Captain Marvel: 220/15 – unfortunately I was too lazy to count for Venom and Aquaman so I can only compare it to other highly anticipated big movies like e.g. Fantastic Beasts 2 which had 68/15 minutes same day and time of the day before the release, Glass had 16/15, Bohemian Rhapsody 57/15, Halloween 71/15.

Pulse yesterday 10:35-10:49 EST:
Captain Marvel: 478/15 – e.g. that's ca. 12x of what Glass had at that time on Monday, Bohemian Rhapsody had 82/15 at that time on Monday.

Pulse today 8:35-8:49 EST:

CM: 351/15 minutes – yesterday it were 220/15, up 60%; Halloween had 112/15 and Glass 31/15 both same day and time of the day, Bohemian Rhapsody 142/15 same time of the day but on Wednesday (for the next days my comparisons will be less incomplete).

And Pulse today 10:50-11:04 EST:

CM: 635/15 minutes – yesterday 478/15, up 33%; Fantastic Beasts 2 (62.2M OW) had 593/15 minutes same time of the day but on Thursday, Bohemian Rhapsody had 201/15 same time of the day but on Wednesday.
All depends on the multiplier CM will have in the following days but just from these comparisons yesterday and today it looks indeed like CM will perform closer to 200M than 150M. But CM will probably be more frontloaded than the comparison-movies (except FB 2) so to be on the safe side I also go with 150M+ at the moment.

 

[john2000]

10 minutes ago, el sid said:

Normally Pulse is boring on Monday and Tuesday but not this time .
Pulse yesterday 8:35-8:49 EST:
Captain Marvel: 220/15 – unfortunately I was too lazy to count for Venom and Aquaman so I can only compare it to other highly anticipated big movies like e.g. Fantastic Beasts 2 which had 68/15 minutes same day and time of the day before the release, Glass had 16/15, Bohemian Rhapsody 57/15, Halloween 71/15.

Pulse yesterday 10:35-10:49 EST:
Captain Marvel: 478/15 – e.g. that's ca. 12x of what Glass had at that time on Monday, Bohemian Rhapsody had 82/15 at that time on Monday.

Pulse today 8:35-8:49 EST:

CM: 351/15 minutes – yesterday it were 220/15, up 60%; Halloween had 112/15 and Glass 31/15 both same day and time of the day, Bohemian Rhapsody 142/15 same time of the day but on Wednesday (for the next days my comparisons will be less incomplete).

And Pulse today 10:50-11:04 EST:

CM: 635/15 minutes – yesterday 478/15, up 33%; Fantastic Beasts 2 (62.2M OW) had 593/15 minutes same time of the day but on Thursday, Bohemian Rhapsody had 201/15 same time of the day but on Wednesday.
All depends on the multiplier CM will have in the following days but just from these comparisons yesterday and today it looks indeed like CM will perform closer to 200M than 150M. But CM will probably be more frontloaded than the comparison-movies (except FB 2) so to be on the safe side I also go with 150M+ at the moment.

 

so in theory could it hit 170 + ?

[Rebeccas]

Marketplace is a bit starved right now honestly.

[andersonhoran]

2 hours ago, FlashMaster659 said:

2018-02-13 15:00:59.611502 UTC
1	42.8%	Black Panther
2	22.5%	Fifty Shades Freed
3	6.3%	Peter Rabbit
4	4.8%	15:17 to Paris, The
5	2.5%	Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

How much do you think it will open?

[FlashMaster659]

1 minute ago, andersonhoran said:

How much do you think it will open?

Betting $155M-$165M

[TalismanRing]

Fandango Pulse (eye count) Average Per Minute charts for comparison (Sorry for the formatting. I wish excel cut and pasted here like it used to)

 

 

	Monday	Tues	Wed	Thursday
Wonder Woman	15 avg (11am) 20 (3pm)	25 (10pm)	39 avg (12:30pm) 42 avg (3pm) , 54.2 (4pm)	49avg (9am), 110 (12pm), 138( 1pm) 174 (3:50pm), 216 (5:20pm)
Spider-Man	3.6 (6:30pm)		8 avg (10am)	8 avg (12pm)
IT	20 avg (9pm)		90 (10:30pm)	25 (8:20am) 41(9am) 102 (12:20pm) 140 (1pm) 186 (4:50pm)
Thor	13.5 (12pm)	25 (10am), 32 (10:30pm)	35 (9:55am), 49 (3:40), 47 (4:10pm)	103 (12:15) 112 (1:15pm), 145 (4pm) 175 (4:50)
Justice League	11.4 (10:10am), 13.2 (11am), 19.8 (3pm)	16 (9am), 19.2 (10am), 20.4 (11.30am), 22.2 (4:45)	26.5 (9:10), 27 (10:10am), 37.2 (12:25), 36.6 (4:10pm), 47 (5:30)	45.2 (10.am), 78 (12pm), 92 (1:30pm), 103 (3:30pm), 124 (4:15pm), 145 (5:30pm), 156 (7:45)
Star Wars: TLJ		80 (4pm)	175 (6:30pm)	275 (10:45am)
Black Panther	65-70 (3:30pm)	82.33 (3:45pm)	107 (2:45pm)	244 (2:30)
Avengers: Infinity War	88.33 (1pm)		85 (8:55am), 91 (9:10am) 157 (3pm), 200 (6:30)	240 (11:15am), 305 (3pm)
Deadpool 2			60 (6pm)	55 (9:30 am), 60 (10am), 98.75 (12pm), 165.5 (3:20pm), 204 (5:20pm)
Solo		22 (2:15pm), 32 (6:45pm)	51 (11:40am), 41.75  (4:30pm)	45 (10:10am), 57 (10.30am), 73 (12:30pm), 89 (3:30pm), 92.6 (4pm), 134 (5:45pm)
Jurassic World: FK			74.67 (8:30pm)	120 (2pm), 121 (3:30pm), 120 (3:45pm), 156.7 (5:30pm)
Ant-Man & The Wasp		15.5 (1pm), 16.333 (3pm)		135 (5:15pm)
Captain Marvel	14.67 (8:45am)	23.4 (8:45am), 42.33 (11am)

Edited March 5, 2019 by TalismanRing

[MattW]

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/captain-marvel-eyes-125m-us-bow-at-box-office-1192178

Marvel's first female-fronted superhero pic, starring Brie Larson, is tracking to open this weekend to a mighty $125 million to $145 million at the North American box office, where revenue year to date is down 26 percent over 2018 following a dismal February, which hit a 17-year low. Some even think the movie could hit $150 million through Sunday.

Either way, Captain Marvel is poised to score the second-biggest opening for a Marvel Studios title introducing a new character behind last year's Black Panther, which debuted domestically to $202 million in February 2018. The Marvel and Disney tentpole also looks to come in ahead of DC's Wonder Woman ($103 million).

Overseas, Captain Marvel is tracking to open to $150 million or more. It touches down in every major market this week timed to its U.S. launch save for Japan.

 

 

 

My own guess is right around 140m.  Presales have been incredible, and I'm thinking that there's some hunger games type demand, which was presale heavy compared to other franchises at the time.

Edited March 5, 2019 by MattW

[MrGlass2]

7 minutes ago, MattW said:

 

My own guess is right around 140m.  Presales have been incredible, and I'm thinking that there's some hunger games type demand, which was presale heavy compared to other franchises at the time.

Why would it be so much more so than for Black Panther?