The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Legion Again]

13 minutes ago, MattW said:

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/captain-marvel-eyes-125m-us-bow-at-box-office-1192178

Marvel's first female-fronted superhero pic, starring Brie Larson, is tracking to open this weekend to a mighty $125 million to $145 million at the North American box office, where revenue year to date is down 26 percent over 2018 following a dismal February, which hit a 17-year low. Some even think the movie could hit $150 million through Sunday.

Either way, Captain Marvel is poised to score the second-biggest opening for a Marvel Studios title introducing a new character behind last year's Black Panther, which debuted domestically to $202 million in February 2018. The Marvel and Disney tentpole also looks to come in ahead of DC's Wonder Woman ($103 million).

Overseas, Captain Marvel is tracking to open to $150 million or more. It touches down in every major market this week timed to its U.S. launch save for Japan.

 

 

 

My own guess is right around 140m.  Presales have been incredible, and I'm thinking that there's some hunger games type demand, which was presale heavy compared to other franchises at the time.

That overseas estimate is a joke of a lowball, I guess they’re just clueless about foreign presales.

[raulbalarezo]

17 minutes ago, MattW said:

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/captain-marvel-eyes-125m-us-bow-at-box-office-1192178

Overseas, Captain Marvel is tracking to open to $150 million or more. It touches down in every major market this week timed to its U.S. launch save for Japan.

It will make $150M Just in Asia, so zero from Europe, Latin America and the rest of the world 

 

Edited March 5, 2019 by raulbalarezo

[TalismanRing]

10 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

That overseas estimate is a joke of a lowball, I guess they’re just clueless about foreign presales.

Yeah, they're not seeing China at all

Edited March 5, 2019 by TalismanRing

[TwoMisfits]

5 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

Why would it be so much more so than for Black Panther?

I'll try to answer some of the hesitation...

1. If you think this movie will pull a disproportionate % of women aged 25+ vs normal supers, these buyers both pre-buy and wait.  So, they don't walk up - they either have a ticket before getting to the theater or wait til later, so your normal walk ups will skew lower...

2. There is no Moviepass.  Last year at this time, 2 million+ US users had the advantage of getting almost free tickets, BUT they could only walk up to movies...so EVERY SEAT was sat in...and walk ups were buffed by these users, who could see the movie EVERY DAY of the weekend...and there were certain users who did just that...The new largest subscription services DO allow prebuys, so all of those folks have their tickets.

3. The differing demographic and weekend set up.  Black Panther had a demo which was more likely to walk up vs prebuy and more likely to show on every day of the weekend, not just Friday/Saturday...

 

So, preselling like BP is GREAT...but it doesn't guarantee final weekend results like BP.... 

[Rebeccas]

6 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

That overseas estimate is a joke of a lowball, I guess they’re just clueless about foreign presales.

I find it shocking these trades don't have a correspondent in China to report on this stuff given how big that market is and how important it is to the industry. I guess journalism can't afford anyone these days.

Edited March 5, 2019 by Rebeccas

[Deep Wang]

As of 9am...

 

9.3m

[TalismanRing]

9 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

Why would it be so much more so than for Black Panther?

It's most likely going to tilt more female to male which should tilt the pre-sales a bit since on avg women tend to buy earlier.

 

BP had a huge % of the black audience compared to other MCU movies - 37% on o/w compared to the usual 10-15% and films targeted to black audiences tend to have lower pre-sales

[FlashMaster659]

4 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

As of 9am...

 

9.3m

BP at the same point in time?

[SirPetras]

Guess it's safe to say $150M is a lock?

[Legion Again]

7 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

As of 9am...

 

9.3m

Don’t think we have a lot of same day comps, but it’s already above the final day presales of everything that’s not Star Wars, Avengers, or BP IIRC. And basically 2.5 days to increase more.

[fabiopazzo2]

8 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

As of 9am...

 

9.3m

Oh... much better than Batb

[TalismanRing]

1 minute ago, SirPetras said:

Guess it's safe to say $150M is a lock?

Nothing is a lock but considering 9.3m are the cumulative pre-sales from only one of the two major chains with 2 1/2 more days to go - my guess would be very very likely

[Stewart]

10 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

As of 9am...

 

9.3m

Definitely won't be forgetting you anytime soon  

[Eric Burnett]

7 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

As of 9am...

 

9.3m

Stealing the chart Wang generated in early January 

 

Spoiler

 

I'm keeping this a spoiler out of respect for Wang's wishes.

 

But if you notice in the chart, this is doing exceptional business. Ragnarok is more than tripled by CM's business, and it's above what BatB (likely) got by Thursday. And there's still a couple more days to go. At this point, I'm no longer O/U Hunger Games. I'm O/U BvS, maybe even BatB.

[Biggestgeekever]

14 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

As of 9am...

 

9.3m

This is what you said after having Captain Marvel at $5.4M on the last update

On 2/28/2019 at 5:32 PM, Deep Wang said:

Since this is from Wednesday morning, that give 5 full days until Monday. 

 

I’d like to see it between 6.5-7m on Monday.  That’s just about 200k/day. 

 

So it's more than doubled the pace you were looking for. 😃

[HouseOfTheSun]

Hmm. Maybe BATB should be the number then. Marvel and Disney, I’m sure, would be quite ecstatic if Captain Marvel and Black Panther become the two highest opening weekend for solo films...in just their first installments. 

[Legion Again]

3 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

This is what you said after having Captain Marvel at $5.4M on the last update

 

So it's more than doubled the pace you were looking for. 😃

7m Monday morning would have been .32m/day. 9.3m Tues morning is .65m/day instead.     

 

Seems to me like final should be at least 11 — 11 would be fairly linear growth, but I assume that in actuality it ramps up and could even be 13+ in the optimistic case.

Edited March 5, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[Porthos]

 

25 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Nothing is a lock but considering 9.3m are the cumulative pre-sales from only one of the two major chains with 2 1/2 more days to go - my guess would be very very likely

Three major chains. 

 

Spoiler

2006 me would be so disappointed in 2019 me for sticking up for said company, even obliquely.  Oh well.

Edited March 5, 2019 by Porthos

[Legion Again]

Roughly what % of the market was Wang’s MTC again? Something like 20%? It doesn’t matter when comparing to other presales from the same source of course, but I’m curious what $$$ of tickets we think has already been sold nationally.

[Biggestgeekever]

https://deadline.com/2019/03/captain-marvel-box-office-opening-record-preview-1202569811/

 

Quote

The domestic comp to last year has been off by as much as 26% and that’s largely because we’re comparing this year to a Black Panther-fueled winter a year ago. Well, business is about to get better for 2019 as Disney’s Captain Marvel, the first Marvel movie since July’s Ant-Man and the Wasp is hoping to rocket-charge to a $150M start in U.S./Canada and a $350M worldwide opening

Quote

Industry sources are pegging the offshore opening at anywhere from $180M-$200M with some seeing it at $210M+; a lot of that depends on China.