Jump to content

grim22

The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

By grim22, in Numbers and Data

Recommended Posts

Recommended

Posted by Porthos,

Really depends on what you're looking for, but usually the most important takeaway for just a casual glance is the comp.  More on that in a bit.   But even that is highly dependent on a movie being either in a similar genre or having a similar pre-sale pattern as folks will buy tickets at different times during a pre-sale window thanks to a very long list of factors.   Add in that movies will have different promotional schedules during their pre-sales (review embargoes, TV ca
Recommended by Cap
  • Like

7 reactions

Go to this post
Recommended

Posted by Cap,

MODERATION:   Hi, everyone. It’s 6 o’clock in the morning. I have not gone to bed yet. And I am tired. And I know it’s going to be a very long weekend. Here is the new rule.   This thread is for numbers and data. Please post your theater updates. Please post your comparable data. And please talk about that comparable data here.    If you wish to do a deep dive on why you think that data might or might not suck, then take it to the respective thread of the movie in ques
Recommended by Cap
  • Thanks
  • Like

14 reactions

Go to this post




cdsacken Summer Tentpole

cdsacken

Posted
Posted

Post is deleted on main Avengers End Game thread from page 573. However several viewed (I missed it by 5 seconds). Be advised if you are truly concerned about spoilers I'm not sure any thread is safe from trolls so be careful.

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Legion Again Global Phenomenon

Legion Again

Posted
Posted (edited)

First MT update today is insane. AEG up to 90 (what’s the highest MT we’ve ever seen? Must have been TFA, right?)   And CM is second with 150% of third place. Soon we may see a less than 1% in top 5.  

 

A6-F0-D234-A652-4600-B52-D-ED8-CB694-B1-

Edited by Thanos Legion
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites


nguyenkhoi282 Sleeper Hit

nguyenkhoi282

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

First MT update today is insane. AEG up to 90 (what’s the highest MT we’ve ever seen? Must have been TFA, right?)   And CM is second with 140% of third place. Soon we may see a less than 1% in top 5.  

 

A6-F0-D234-A652-4600-B52-D-ED8-CB694-B1-

What was the highest for Infinity War?

Link to comment
Share on other sites


XXR vs XXR Global Phenomenon

XXR vs XXR

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

First MT update today is insane. AEG up to 90 (what’s the highest MT we’ve ever seen? Must have been TFA, right?)   And CM is second with 140% of third place. Soon we may see a less than 1% in top 5.  

 

A6-F0-D234-A652-4600-B52-D-ED8-CB694-B1-

 

TFA got to around 94% as I recall. Much weaker compeition though. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites




stfletch Straight-to-DVD

stfletch

Posted
Posted

Last update before we start to get actual numbers!

 

AIW Date Days to Open AIW Tickets AEG Date AEG Tickets AEG/AIW Notes
2018-03-16 41 29,410        
2018-03-17 40 16,237        
2018-03-18 39 10,631        
2018-03-19 38 14,574        
2018-03-20 37 9,366        
2018-03-21 36 8,281        
2018-03-22 35 6,101        
2018-03-23 34 3,753        
2018-03-24 33 2,426        
2018-03-25 32 3,655        
2018-03-26 31 5,191        
2018-03-27 30 4,647        
2018-03-28 29 4,241        
2018-03-29 28 3,060        
2018-03-30 27 2,134        
2018-03-31 26 2,471        
2018-04-01 25 3,662        
2018-04-02 24 7,257        
2018-04-03 23 6,866 2019-04-02 330,000   Pulse down entire day
2018-04-04 22 7,917 2019-04-03 40,000   Pulse down until around 7pm CST
2018-04-05 21 5,692 2019-04-04 30,292 5.3  
2018-04-06 20 3,618 2019-04-05 17,428 4.8  
2018-04-07 19 3,383 2019-04-06 11,697 3.5  
2018-04-08 18 6,363 2019-04-07 16,137 2.5  
2018-04-09 17 10,828 2019-04-08 28,219 2.6  
2018-04-10 16 8,670 2019-04-09 24,701 2.8  
2018-04-11 15 13,960 2019-04-10 25,617 1.8  
2018-04-12 14 13,332 2019-04-11 23,680 1.8  
2018-04-13 13 7,614 2019-04-12 15,554 2.0  
2018-04-14 12 5,602 2019-04-13 11,720 2.1  
2018-04-15 11 9,314 2019-04-14 17,436 1.9  
2018-04-16 10 18,403 2019-04-15 26,081 1.4  
2018-04-17 9 19,431 2019-04-16 28,287 1.5  
2018-04-18 8 23,790 2019-04-17 34,783 1.5  
2018-04-19 7 18,788 2019-04-18 28,851 1.5  
2018-04-20 6 14,281 2019-04-19 23,629 1.7  
2018-04-21 5 12,368 2019-04-20 20,956 1.7  
2018-04-22 4 27,180 2019-04-21 36,215 1.3  
2018-04-23 3 48,861 2019-04-22 55,387 1.1  
2018-04-24 2 55,376 2019-04-23 59,396 1.1  
2018-04-25 1 68,137 2019-04-24 75,592 1.1  
2018-04-26 0 76,734        
* Estimate based on using Fandango Comment that AEG outsold AIW 5:1 in first week  
**Estimate based on the fact we had about 1/4th of the days data
  • Like 4
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites




stfletch Straight-to-DVD

stfletch

Posted
Posted

 

So Final Estimate for Thursday Preview based on my existing Methodology is $58MM. However, see my next post!

AIW:

  MON TUE WED THU
THU 135,699 150,926 170,797 204,244
FRI 119,025 136,046 156,701 177,694
SAT 95,621 108,364 123,769 136,023
SUN 51,258 58,847 67,711 74,892
TOTAL 401,603 454,183 518,978 592,853

 

AEG:

  MON TUE WED
THU 222,280 236,062 254,791
FRI 188,824 206,303 228,051
SAT 175,121 188,747 205,892
SUN 120,786 129,471 140,640
TOTAL 707,010 760,582 829,373

 

Factor:

  MON TUE WED
THU 1.64 1.56 1.49
FRI 1.59 1.52 1.46
SAT 1.83 1.74 1.66
SUN 2.36 2.20 2.08

 

Estimate:

  AIW   Factor   AEG Est.
THU $39,000,000 x 1.49 = $58,179,219
FRI $67,334,939 x 1.46 = $97,994,295
SAT $82,131,612 x 1.66 = $136,627,193
SUN $69,231,632 x 2.08 = $143,798,235
TOTAL $257,698,183       $436,598,942

 

 

Spoiler

OK, so now the fun starts... this link from AKValley has now started showing Avenger Endgame http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/fandango_daily.txt

 

From this we can see how many Fandango Pulse "tickets" (I will use units from now on, as we know it's not actual individual tickets that are tracked) have been sold for each day of the first weekend, by which day they were sold. In this calculation I have included an estimate of the number of units sold during the first couple of days when Pulse was down. Based on the comment from Fandango that AEG outsold AIW 5:1 in first week, I believe this to be around 360,000 units. I used the split of THU:FRI:SAT:SUN from the few days after Pulse was back to portion out the tickets to each of the days (in all likelihood the first day probably saw more sales weighted towards Thursday but I have no way of estimating by how much). In total this gives us as of Monday 4/22/2019, 9pm CST.

 

THU 220,543
FRI 186,674
SAT 173,416
SUN 119,706
TOTAL 700,338

 

We can compare this with how many units were sold for Infinity War as at the end of the Monday of opening week (using the historical data in the google docs on AKValleys FML website: https://fantasymovieleague.com/chatter/board/fml-main-chatter/topic/462064)

 

THU 135,699
FRI 119,025
SAT 95,621
SUN 51,258
TOTAL 401,603


And using the factor between the two and multiplying by AIW's actual box office totals during the weekend we can get the following estimate.

 

  AIW   Factor   AEG Est.
THU $39,000,000 x 1.63 = $63,384,138
FRI $67,334,939 x 1.57 = $105,605,430
SAT $82,131,612 x 1.81 = $148,951,640
SUN $69,231,632 x 2.34 = $161,680,661
TOTAL $257,698,183       $479,621,869

 

Now obviously Fri through Sun are increasingly absurd. This is because the % walk-ups vs presales for AIW on those days would be much higher than what we are likely to get for AEG. But if we assume Thursday was almost entirely presales for both AIW and AEG (or at least that the % of presales to walk-ups won't be all THAT different), this could be a good estimate, or at least a good top estimate. One caveat is that there are still a couple of hours to go of Monday, so this estimate will actually increase until we get the final end-of-Monday total for AEG. I can also refine this estimate over the next few days using EOD presales from Tuesday and Wednesday.

 

TL;DR - Endgames has sold a fuck load of tickets already, and I believe the preview record is toast!

 

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites


stfletch Straight-to-DVD

stfletch

Posted
Posted

My previous methodology based the Thu-Sun split of the approx. 360,000 tickets that occured while Pulse was down on the first day after Pulse was back up. However, I think that first day probably would have had a much higher proportion of sales for the Thursday showing. So, as an alternative I used the split based on the first couple of days of pre-sales for Infinity War and this is what we get!

 

AIW:

  MON TUE WED THU
THU 135,699 150,926 170,797 204,244
FRI 119,025 136,046 156,701 177,694
SAT 95,621 108,364 123,769 136,023
SUN 51,258 58,847 67,711 74,892
TOTAL 401,603 454,183 518,978 592,853

 

AEG:

THU 277,621 291,403 310,132
FRI 221,351 238,830 260,578
SAT 184,166 197,792 214,937
SUN 101,281 109,966 121,135
TOTAL 784,420 837,992 906,783

 

Factor:

  MON TUE WED
THU 2.05 1.93 1.82
FRI 1.86 1.76 1.66
SAT 1.93 1.83 1.74
SUN 1.98 1.87 1.79

 

Estimate:

  AIW   Factor   AEG Est.
THU $39,000,000 x 1.82 = $70,816,036
FRI $67,334,939 x 1.66 = $111,971,392
SAT $82,131,612 x 1.74 = $142,629,596
SUN $69,231,632 x 1.79 = $123,855,559
TOTAL $257,698,183       $449,272,584

 

So conclusive proof that previews will be between $58M and $71M!

 

Lol, or not.... But I still think they will come in around $60-65M.

 

 

  • Like 4
  • Astonished 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites


MadmenEndgame Cult Classic

MadmenEndgame

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, stfletch said:

My previous methodology based the Thu-Sun split of the approx. 360,000 tickets that occured while Pulse was down on the first day after Pulse was back up. However, I think that first day probably would have had a much higher proportion of sales for the Thursday showing. So, as an alternative I used the split based on the first couple of days of pre-sales for Infinity War and this is what we get!

 

AIW:

  MON TUE WED THU
THU 135,699 150,926 170,797 204,244
FRI 119,025 136,046 156,701 177,694
SAT 95,621 108,364 123,769 136,023
SUN 51,258 58,847 67,711 74,892
TOTAL 401,603 454,183 518,978 592,853

 

AEG:

THU 277,621 291,403 310,132
FRI 221,351 238,830 260,578
SAT 184,166 197,792 214,937
SUN 101,281 109,966 121,135
TOTAL 784,420 837,992 906,783

 

Factor:

  MON TUE WED
THU 2.05 1.93 1.82
FRI 1.86 1.76 1.66
SAT 1.93 1.83 1.74
SUN 1.98 1.87 1.79

 

Estimate:

  AIW   Factor   AEG Est.
THU $39,000,000 x 1.82 = $70,816,036
FRI $67,334,939 x 1.66 = $111,971,392
SAT $82,131,612 x 1.74 = $142,629,596
SUN $69,231,632 x 1.79 = $123,855,559
TOTAL $257,698,183       $449,272,584

 

So conclusive proof that previews will be between $58M and $71M!

 

Lol, or not.... But I still think they will come in around $60-65M.

 

 

The alkavely data you are using doesn't contain total tickets sold on pulse. As per your link, there is no data for first 2 days.. 

 

So could be very higher. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites








Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.


×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.

  I accept