The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[XXR vs XXR]

5 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

Starting on Monday, EG had already sold more in presales than any other movie in MTC's history. So let's look at this a few different ways:

 

1) What the hell else is left to sell??  The best times and best seats are all most likely gone. 

 

2) Keep in mind that it's still selling above the pace of IW's final week daily numbers(which is usually when a large share, if not the largest share of tickets are sold) 

 

3)Now, think about how it had already sold double what IW sold by Monday and it's still outpacing it daily on the final approach.  

 

4)Then think again about number 1 above and how it's STILL outselling IW with non-prime showtimes!  

 

I know I mentioned it before, but we are in uncharted territory with presales.  Everyone else has been assuming this was going to get to 50m MTC, but I haven't been as confident, mostly because of reason #1.  We shall see.

 

Good data but he was talking about Pikachu  

[Thrylos 7]

19 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

Not doing the full update for my theater until 830pm CST to match with my final update for Infinity War, but I just did a preliminary check of a few of the latest show times and yeeaaaa....

 

Gonna be a big jump from my Saturday number.

I think it will do around 100 million in Saturday, crazy prediction I know.

[XXR vs XXR]

Endgame - Fandango Tracking - 14 Updates

 

April 23: 30014

April 24: 40466 (+34.8%)

[Cap]

25 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

oops.

The update was nice though! So thanks for going off!

[Tinalera]

330 opening weekend because why not. Thats my prediction. No big loss if im wrong.

 

But if im right.......😂

[Superdeluxe]

4 hours ago, Biggestgeekever said:

That theater is fucking crazy, it looks very likely to sell out every show this weekend. 

 

I've never actually been there, but I assume it's a pretty good AMC? (assuming you're also in the Seattle area).

I'm actually in a burb South of Seattle called Puyallup. AMC Lakewood is the closest theater to me with Recliner Seats.  Now these are smaller theaters (due to the Recliner style seats), but yeah.  It was pretty much all sold out 1-2 weeks ago, but they added another screen to the mix on Monday (There were showings on THursday and Friday prime time that only had 2-3 seats filled).

[Birdo Mandingo]

The local theater I have been tracking nearly doubled there showings for Thursday in the past 36 hours or so. Went from 13 to 21 showings. Of the original 13 all are virtual sellouts (I define as just handicapped and maybe 1 or 2 random seats left). Of the 8 new showings they are already 60-70 sold (so a lot of sales in the past 24-36 hours) and I suspect over the next 24h most will turn into virtual sellouts too. 

[rerga]

That's weird... No walk up showtimes for Endgame in Ontario... 

 

It's too late to add more showtimes correct? 

[XXR vs XXR]

Endgame has crossed 70%

 

2019-04-24 21:08:10.633644 UTC
1	70.6%	Avengers: Endgame
2	5.5%	The Curse of La Llorona
3	4%	Captain Marvel
4	3.4%	Shazam!
5	2.9%	Jersey (Telugu)

 

Edited April 24, 2019 by VenomXXR

[Legion Again]

7 minutes ago, rerga said:

It's too late to add more showtimes correct? 

Not too late to add Thurs showtimes until 2AM Friday or so 

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Not too late to add Thurs showtimes until 2AM Friday or so 

Any showtime that starts at 5:59am Fri or earlier counts toward the preview number. 

[VanillaSkies]

36 minutes ago, rerga said:

That's weird... No walk up showtimes for Endgame in Ontario... 

 

It's too late to add more showtimes correct? 

Generally Cineplex is very rigid with their showtimes. 

The fact that there is a 12:05am show at Scotiabank theater in Toronto shocks me. Cineplex rarely has shows past midnight.

As of right now, I can't see them posting any later shows (boring), but considering this is an unprecedented event, who knows maybe during the day tomorrow they will decide to do it instead of leaving cash on the table.  

[cax16]

1 hour ago, rerga said:

That's weird... No walk up showtimes for Endgame in Ontario... 

 

It's too late to add more showtimes correct? 

Edited April 24, 2019 by cax16

[Lordmandeep]

50 minutes ago, rerga said:

That's weird... No walk up showtimes for Endgame in Ontario... 

 

It's too late to add more showtimes correct? 

 

Cineplex added a ton of shows on Tuesday and for midnights they have mostly gotten full already.

 

You may see more small theaters added but Cineplex likely is thinking

 

"where else are you gonna see this movie, see it Friday or Saturday"

 

This is a historic wide release by Cineplex here in Canada, I never seen such a wide release for a film. TFA was close but this is much wider.

 

 

 

Edited April 24, 2019 by Lordmandeep

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 hours ago, Deep Wang said:

 

Starting on Monday, EG had already sold more in presales than any other movie in MTC's history. So let's look at this a few different ways:

 

1) What the hell else is left to sell??  The best times and best seats are all most likely gone. 

 

2) Keep in mind that it's still selling above the pace of IW's final week daily numbers(which is usually when a large share, if not the largest share of tickets are sold) 

 

3)Now, think about how it had already sold double what IW sold by Monday and it's still outpacing it daily on the final approach.  

 

4)Then think again about number 1 above and how it's STILL outselling IW with non-prime showtimes!  

 

I know I mentioned it before, but we are in uncharted territory with presales.  Everyone else has been assuming this was going to get to 50m MTC, but I haven't been as confident, mostly because of reason #1.  We shall see.

As @VenomXXR said the guy was talking about Pikachu. And the reason I was (and still) am pretty confident in 50m is that it's still outpacing IW on Fandango, and there's normally an approximate correlation between Pulse sales and your data that would get it past 50m.

Edited April 24, 2019 by Menor

[VanillaSkies]

15 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

 

You may see more small theaters added but Cineplex likely is thinking

 

"where else are you gonna see this movie, see it Friday or Saturday"

 

Agreed.

Cineplex has such a stranglehold on movie-going in Ontario, they know that anyone who can't see it Thursday night will most likely just go to a Cineplex show on the weekend since rival multiplexes are few and far between, and most pale in comparison in terms of quality. 

Here in Ottawa, we have 6 large Cineplex theaters in the area with just two rival multiplexes, Landmark with two locations and Cinestarz with one location. 
The other ones are speciality theaters or second run theaters. So yeah, lack of competition means they know they will end up with most the business anyways, so why stay open late if they don't have to. 

As you allude to through, I still haven't seen this many shows at one time for most Cineplex theaters.

Edited April 24, 2019 by VanillaSkies

[Menor the Destroyer]

75.9% on MT

[Shawn Robbins]

4 hours ago, Barnack said:

Do you know if the formula that traduce the awareness, top 3, first choice, etc... use days before release has a variable ?

 

Or the result talked about in the trade are if release next weekend type ?

It's hard for me to comment on that since I don't what other trades and analysts specifically do in their modeling. But I personally always try to look at days before release for any movie when comping. Awareness and interest are also big factors, yes.

[Shawn Robbins]

4 hours ago, Nova said:

I took a screen shot of this comment because I honestly never knew that this is how tracking works.  Thank you so so much for explaining how it works. Should be bookmarked to the front page of this thread tbh 

 

Also, just so I am not spreading false info on the boards, BOP has access to that data you mentioned and that's how you guys make your predictions, correct? So you're technically using the same info that the trades are using but you actually have direct access to it? Did I understand that correctly? 

Not exactly... hard for me to go in super detail, but we have our own internal data we focus on as much as possible. When that's not enough, though, I factor in all information. I'm a believer that no one source or model is accurate enough to rely on all the time (until proven otherwise!), but there are outliers to that with certain kinds of movies. I'm also believer that there is such a thing as too much data, but that's a whole other subject.

 

Specifically, Boxoffice's parent company (Webedia) does have an audience survey tool called Trailer Impact that measures interest from real moviegoers in upcoming movies. Those surveys are done on site at various theaters around the world and we have access to it for inclusion in forecasts. That's in addition to our social media tracking, which is currently being transitioned to a (hopefully) more detailed methodology.

[XXR vs XXR]

1 minute ago, Shawn said:

Not exactly... hard for me to go in super detail, but we have our own internal data we focus on as much as possible. When that's not enough, though, I factor in all information. I'm a believer that no one source or model is accurate enough to rely on all the time (until proven otherwise!), but there are outliers to that with certain kinds of movies. I'm also believer that there is such a thing as too much data, but that's a whole other subject.

 

Specifically, Boxoffice's parent company (Webedia) does have an audience survey tool called Trailer Impact that measures interest from real moviegoers in upcoming movies. Those surveys are done on site at various theaters around the world and we have access to it for inclusion in forecasts.

Aaaaannnddd now you're on the $330m OW bandwagon, right Shawn?