The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[That One Girl]

People take these movies way too seriously, not exactly hard-hitting news

[Nova]

6 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

 

Somebody literally tweeted @ the VP of Regal with our numbers!  Like WTF, who does that!

Yea. I remember that but didn't want to get too specific. A big fat fucking mess is what it was.

 

But I said it was a user who did it but in reality it could have been a lurker. I just assumed it was a user because of the influx we had seen and how toxic the forums had gotten. 

[Nova]

4 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

Fucking hell, that's ridiculous. I managed to just miss that happening, but I'm guessing it was fanboys being pissy about the presale numbers Wonder Woman was putting up?

The forums were so so so so bad around that time. Like that's why the mods are the way they are now. @Deep Wang had to stop posting for a while but then eventually started to give numbers to @grim22

@EmpireCity pretty sure was gonna leave too. 

 

You legit had fanboys arguing with insider people over numbers and what not. And then of course what happened with the tweeting at the VP of Regal hard data from a MTC. Fanboys are w-i-l-d 

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, Nova said:

The forums were so so so so bad around that time. Like that's why the mods are the way they are now. @Deep Wang had to stop posting for a while but then eventually started to give numbers to @grim22

@EmpireCity pretty sure was gonna leave too. 

 

You legit had fanboys arguing with insider people over numbers and what not. And then of course what happened with the tweeting at the VP of Regal hard data from a MTC. Fanboys are w-i-l-d 

That god I was on a siesta at the time.  I think I would have flipped out had I seen that happening in real time.

[JB33]

Just entering this conversation now? What "time" are you talking about @Nova? The Wonder Woman release right?

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Just entering this conversation now? What "time" are you talking about @Nova? The Wonder Woman release right?

Yep.  IIRC, 'fans' were accusing various insiders of lying about pre-sales and were trying to get the "real" story by "proving" they were all lying. Or at least trying to 'verify' the numbers.

 

That's what I've been able to piece together months after the fact, at least. Could be missing some nuance here or simplifying it too much.  That's the impression I got after the fact, at least.

 

Dark dark stuff.

Edited April 29, 2019 by Porthos

[Brainbug]

The dark ages of BOT. May they never return.

[Nova]

4 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Just entering this conversation now? What "time" are you talking about @Nova? The Wonder Woman release right?

Yes. 

[CJohn]

25 minutes ago, Nova said:

The forums were so so so so bad around that time. Like that's why the mods are the way they are now. @Deep Wang had to stop posting for a while but then eventually started to give numbers to @grim22

@EmpireCity pretty sure was gonna leave too. 

 

You legit had fanboys arguing with insider people over numbers and what not. And then of course what happened with the tweeting at the VP of Regal hard data from a MTC. Fanboys are w-i-l-d 

HOLY FUCKING SHIT WHAT THE HELL HAPENNED WHEN I WAS OUT 

[JB33]

Yeah that was indeed a rough time. Summer 2017 in general, wasn't it? BvS and the whole Marvel vs DC thing was still very fresh on people's minds.

[Brainbug]

Just now, CJohn said:

HOLY FUCKING SHIT WHAT THE HELL HAPENNED WHEN I WAS OUT 

 

A lot. @Tele Dondarrion came back because he found his new love for the MCU films and Infinity War especially. @WrathOfHan got a date with Hailee Steinfeld but a hurrican ruined his plans and future. @baumer rewatched The Babadook and loves it now to pieces, just ask him. @YourMother the Edgelord didnt shitpost for nearly 10 hours on June 8th, 2017. @Porthos tried to engage in 224 simultaneous Last Jedi-Debates.

[Porthos]

11 minutes ago, CJohn said:

HOLY FUCKING SHIT WHAT THE HELL HAPENNED WHEN I WAS OUT 

 

 

You got  to remember that these are just simple fans.... 

 

 

Edited April 29, 2019 by Porthos

[CJohn]

2 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

A lot. @Tele Dondarrion came back because he found his new love for the MCU films and Infinity War especially. @WrathOfHan got a date with Hailee Steinfeld but a hurrican ruined his plans and future. @baumer rewatched The Babadook and loves it now to pieces, just ask him. @YourMother the Edgelord didnt shitpost for nearly 10 hours on June 8th, 2017. @Porthos tried to engage in 224 simultaneous Last Jedi-Debates.

So proud of my boy

Edited April 29, 2019 by CJohn

[Menor the Destroyer]

At least at my theater, there are a lot more sales for Endgame today than there were for Captain Marvel's Sunday, because I was easily able to get good seats for that only a couple of hours before the movie but here there's nothing left but front row for any showtime. Today might be an absolutely massive number.

[JB33]

4 minutes ago, Menor said:

At least at my theater, there are a lot more sales for Endgame today than there were for Captain Marvel's Sunday, because I was easily able to get good seats for that only a couple of hours before the movie but here there's nothing left but front row for any showtime. Today might be an absolutely massive number.

My optimistic number is a pinch under $38M (58% drop).

[Menor the Destroyer]

17 minutes ago, JB33 said:

My optimistic number is a pinch under $38M (58% drop).

Hope so, that would be a great drop.

[Minnale101]

Man I reading the last 2 pages and being someone who is new to site

 

crazy to hear that kind of stuff happened 

 

I get being emotionally invested in their respective fandoms and franchises they like 

 

but they acting they profit or lose money out their own pockets with a movie box office result lol

 

its just for fun 

[Perfundle]

2 hours ago, Porthos said:

That I'd def have to check on the revision history as I only keep top level info on my daily tracker sheet.

 

Just from memory and impressions though, Pika Pika is underperforming at a couple of theaters that I'd expect it to do better at.

 

I mostly think though that this is a case of the bad/less useful side of the comp when it comes to both JW2 and FB2 as they can only go so far being different types of movies.

 

I can check it out though if you really want to know.

Nah, there's no need. You've got enough to track already, and thank you for all of it.

[Perfundle]

Anyway, I've been looking at the Friday/Saturday presales ratio to see if it can shed some light into what kind of movie it's going to play as (the good thing about using ratios is that they won't be affected by any tracking issues with Fandango). For non-summer non-holiday movies, family films have stronger Saturdays, both because kids have to go to school on Fridays and because Saturday morning is a great time to take kids to movies to get them out of the house, and the presales data bears this out. I chose to look at total presales numbers 10 days out, because as you near opening day Friday presales always pick up before Saturday ones. I also excluded movies that don't open on Fridays. So here are some ratios from akvalley's spread archive:

 

	Fri/Sat ratio
Halloween	2.31
A Quiet Place	1.62
Us	1.54
Venom	1.48
Solo	1.47
Fantastic Beasts 2	1.33
Deadpool 2	1.3
Glass	1.25
Pacific Rim 2	1.23
Infinity War	1.22
Spider-Verse	1.22
Black Panther	1.16
Endgame	1.13
Captain Marvel	1.08
Shazam	1.03
HTTYD 3	1.02
Wrinkle in Time	1
Nutcracker	0.96
Dumbo	0.94
The Grinch	0.92
LEGO Movie 2	0.71
Incredibles 2	1.26
Jurassic World 2	1.26
The Meg	1.24
Hotel Transylvania 3	1.22
Ant-Man 2	1.18
MI6	1.05

 

Apart from HTTYD 3's higher than expected ratio nothing here is too surprising, with horror movies being the most frontloaded and family films and animation being the least. I also listed six summer movies, which don't show any pattern because kids can see the movies on Thursdays and Fridays as well. I don't know if these numbers are available for upcoming movies, but for the ten theaters I'm tracking, Detective Pikachu's ratio is at 1.01 and John Wick is at 1.19. I'll hold off on Aladdin until tonight, since some parents on the West coast are still at work and haven't had a chance to purchase tickets yet, but I expect it to be in line with the other three Disney family films.

[Biggestgeekever]

MT's final update of the night put Endgame at 93.3%, up from the 89.9% it started with today. Infinity War had a similar increase (85.4% to 89.4%) on its first Monday, so a similar 64-65% drop from Sunday for Endgame is probably the ticket.