The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Tinalera]

Gotta love movie media websites kotm is tracking 50 mil opening:

 

Forbes : godzilla poised to smash box office at 50 million

 

Movieweb: Godzilla poised for disappointng godzooky opening.

 

 

So is 50 mil a smash or disappointment?😕

[Mulder]

Just now, Tinalera said:

Gotta love movie media websites kotm is tracking 50 mil opening:

 

Forbes : godzilla poised to smash box office at 50 million

 

Movieweb: Godzilla poised for disappointng godzooky opening.

 

 

So is 50 mil a smash or disappointment?😕

50 million would be an underperformance imo. 60-75 would be good/in line with expectations. Anything above 75 would be an overperformance/surprise. 

[Tinalera]

1 minute ago, Mulder said:

50 million would be an underperformance imo. 60-75 would be good/in line with expectations. Anything above 75 would be an overperformance/surprise. 

Thanks. I realize its part of the social media thing and sites do thisfor all movies just to get clicks. But as a consumer it sure sends some weird messages. This movie poised to smash no wait its disappointing no wait its huge not wait it isnt. 😆

[Mulder]

3 minutes ago, Mulder said:

50 million would be an underperformance imo. 60-75 would be good/in line with expectations. Anything above 75 would be an overperformance/surprise. 

Do want to clarify imo, this is doing 60-65 OW. Not passing 65 unless I see some insane shit start to happen. Presales are good but Fandango didn't rise like I expected it to.

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, Tinalera said:

Thanks. I realize its part of the social media thing and sites do thisfor all movies just to get clicks. But as a consumer it sure sends some weird messages. This movie poised to smash no wait its disappointing no wait its huge not wait it isnt. 😆

Afair MovieWeb is more clickbait then anything. THR, Variety, Forbes all made 50 million-

A. The floor

B. Worded it positively.

[keysersoze123]

50m for Zilla would be horrible considering 2014 one opened at 93m. Of course that movie had shitty WOM and crashed after OW. So its expected that this one will drop.

 

WB will start final marketing push. I hope this is not the snooze fest that 2014 movie was. Thankfully I do not see ATJ in this one. Plus it needs good reviews and we could hopefully see 80m OW.

[Mulder]

Just now, keysersoze123 said:

50m for Zilla would be horrible considering 2014 one opened at 93m. Of course that movie had shitty WOM and crashed after OW. So its expected that this one will drop.

 

WB will start final marketing push. I hope this is not the snooze fest that 2014 movie was. Thankfully I do not see ATJ in this one. Plus it needs good reviews and we could hopefully see 80m OW.

Please let's not have another Pikachu incident.

[Tinalera]

3 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Afair MovieWeb is more clickbait then anything. THR, Variety, Forbes all made 50 million-

A. The floor

B. Worded it positively.

Duly noted

 This forum has been an education for me. Thank you. 

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Please let's not have another Pikachu incident.

80m for a sequel to 93m opener is not outrageous. People do like the monsters. Even Kong did open good after tracking was soft. it also broke out in OS.

[el sid]

2 hours ago, Cookson said:

Hoping presales come in good but wasn’t Skull Island very walk up heavy? 

 

Loke i said before Godzilla could end up being in a perfect spot.. especially if Aladdin crashes. 

One thing I remember very well when it comes to Skull Island: The disappointing theater reports including the Wednesday, when almost everyone expected it to underperform. And then, on Thursday or Friday (depends on the continent) all of a sudden, it looked more and more promising.
So if this time the presales are also fine, even better. For what it's worth: It had already 18 sold tickets in 15 minutes very early in the morning today (5:50-6:04) and I was wondering why .

I counted Pulse rather briefly today and saw that Pika did really ok but I still hoped for more after the jumps yesterday .
Now I hope with that nice Friday number (20M) that it will behave more like a family film over the weekend. 

And I'm looking forward to John Wick next weekend.

Edited May 10, 2019 by el sid

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

80m for a sequel to 93m opener is not outrageous. People do like the monsters. Even Kong did open good after tracking was soft. it also broke out in OS.

G-2014 overperformed by 23 million. Kong did 61, if it beats/matches Kong it's fine.

[keysersoze123]

Just now, Mulder said:

G-2014 overperformed by 23 million. Kong did 61, if it beats/matches Kong it's fine.

Zilla >>> Kong.
Even 98’s Zilla had lots of hype. But meh reviews caused it to under perform. This is the toughest one as it follows 2014 movie. But WB is good at final marketing if the product is there. I don’t think they have anything else worthwhile to market the entire summer !!!

[andrewgr]

Variety's updated projections based on early Friday numbers: EG $68M, DP $55M

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

Zilla >>> Kong.
Even 98’s Zilla had lots of hype. But meh reviews caused it to under perform. This is the toughest one as it follows 2014 movie. But WB is good at final marketing if the product is there. I don’t think they have anything else worthwhile to market the entire summer !!!

We'll see what happens. Better to be surprised then disappointed.

[Tinalera]

10 minutes ago, andrewgr said:

Variety's updated projections based on early Friday numbers: EG $68M, DP $55M

Its early i know. I was expecting eg a bit higher but almost 70 mil 3rd wkend is still impressive

 

DP is an indicator seems to slowly solidify that 55-65 number. We shall see how weekend goes.

[Porthos]

27 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

50m for Zilla would be horrible considering 2014 one opened at 93m. Of course that movie had shitty WOM and crashed after OW. So its expected that this one will drop.

 

I'm looking at it as a continuation from Skull Island though.  And in that case mid-60s is right at expected value.

 

Should I be?  Well, I know one can make all the arguments one wants about the Big G being more of a draw than the Big K.  Fair enough.  Probably right.  But when it comes to expectations, I think looking at how Skull Island did is a reasonable enough start, and then adjust from there as buzz increases (or doesn't). 

Edited May 10, 2019 by Porthos

[Porthos]

Fandango Pulse right now:

 

[Mulder]

While Godzilla didn't rly increase on Fandango, I'd say it being consistently stable is a good sign that mine and Porthos' early predictions of 60-65 sounds about right.

[Porthos]

Just a bit of forewarning.  KotM could be a little depressed locally on Day 1, as it still hasn't shown up at the four local Cinema West locations.  Even if does finally pop up in the next hour or three, none of them will really show strong pre-sales.

 

Little odd that they haven't shown up there yet, as it's not like them to be trailing at this point in time.

 

They have around 20% market penetration when it comes to theaters locally.  Checking the screen count, they accounted for around 16% of Pikachu's screen count at final bell and 15% or so of Endgame's final screen count and 19% or so for Captain Marvel.  Not gonna go through my entire list, but about around 15 to 20 percent (on screen count NOT seat count) at final total sounds about right.

 

So consider this a heads up on that score.

 

 

[4815162342]

1 hour ago, Sam said:

Well, in my experience, the prayer circle for EG 357M worked.

 

But that’s like the only one so 

 

Sometimes the night is dark and full of terrors