The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Yandereprime101189]

Just now, CoolEric258 said:

lmao it's going to theaters no matter what

 

I figure that lol, but it might not get the marketing push this one got. We may never get the "We Will Rock You" trailer.

[MrGamer]

2 minutes ago, Yandereprime101189 said:

You know, on the off chance KOTM fails, what's going to happen with Kong vs Godzilla.

 

They're gonna have to release that, right? Or will they sell it to Netflix/Put on its own streaming service?

Throw all of the footage in the desert with the ET Atari games.

[Porthos]

Alright, first the elephant in the room.  I'm stopping tracking from 60 to 90 minutes sooner than some comps.  This is especially notable on the JW:FK comp where I am losing nearly two hours of sales.  

 

On the other hand, I have 4pm comps for Pika Pika and Aladdin, and... they're still not looking that great.  

 

I also happen to have Wick 3's 4pm number (2931 tickets sold), and KotM is currently .9812x of Wick 3, which would be about 5.8m.

 

The Venom number is closest in time, and that points to 5.9m.  If I did a pure comp off of JW:FK, I'd get 6.4m. 

 

But then there are those pesky matinees. 

 

Aladdin also over-performed locally so I shouldn't do a pure comp off its 4pm number locally.  And Pikachu had far fewer PLFs.

 

Finally, I get the sense that Sacramento might be under-preforming relative to Fandango.

 

I think looking at everything in total, I'll give a range of 6m to 6.5m.  

 

I kinda want to say under 6m if only because of Pikachu... But I don't think I can go there.  I just really don't have enough good 4pm-ish data to make a great call here.

 

====

 

If folks want to look for something, KotM is actually pacing around 50% of JW:FK's local day over the last three, three and a half hours.  No guarantee it'd keep up that pace.  But if you want to look at a sign for something closer to 6.5m or higher, there it is.

 

I almost kinda want to give a max range of 6.75m.  But the 4pm comps against Wick 3, Pikachu, AND Aladdin all point against it, so I won't.

 

Here's hoping Sacramento is just underestimating it, I suppose.

[keysersoze123]

with a 4PM opening, even best case scenario does not guarantee 60m OW. Worst case Aladdin wins the weekend.

[Porthos]

15 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

So sticking with 5.75-6.75?

I don't like giving Deadline Ranges™. I'm breaking out in hives enough as it is giving a .5m range.

 

===

 

I'll say this.  Neither of those two numbers would surprise me.

Edited May 30, 2019 by Porthos

[Minnale101]

Who knows maybe California  is watching game 1 of nba finals with golden state and east coast, Midwest and south will be tracking better for previews tonight 

[Porthos]

KotM has passed Aladdin on the rolling 24 hour tracker:

 

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-05-29 18:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1       25.288% 17660   Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019) [combined]
2	24.747%	16104	Aladdin (2019) [combined]
3	14.211%	9924	Rocketman
4	07.211%	5036	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
5	06.576%	4592	Ma (2019)
6	04.846%	3384	Avengers Endgame (2019)
7	03.186%	2225	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
8	02.930%	2046	Booksmart
9	01.992%	1391	Brightburn
10	01.603%	1110	Toy Story 4 [combined]

[keysersoze123]

Actually its playing really strong in all Alamo Drafthouse shows at peak hours. Most of them seem sold out across Austin, Dallas, SF etc. I think it still has some room to surprise for its Previews. I would go over the range from @Porthos and predict 7m due to higher average ticket prices.

 

but Porthos is way more reliable.

Edited May 30, 2019 by keysersoze123

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Actually its playing really strong in all Alamo Drafthouse shows at peak hours. Most of them seem sold out across Austin, Dallas, SF etc. I think it still has some room to surprise for its Previews. I would go over the range from @Porthos and predict 7m due to higher average ticket prices.

 

but Porthos is way more reliable.

The only thing stopping me from thinking 6m to 7m is the relative performance of three separate May movies here locally.  If even one of them pointed to north of 6m, I'd feel a lot better about centering my projection around 6.5m instead of choosing 6.25m as my center point.

 

And, hey, 7m could easily happen.  It'd only be .5m off the top of my range which isn't much.  I just have too many indicators pointing sub 6m for me to get too comfy in thinking 7m is the target.

 

And when it comes to reliability, I have far too little 4pm data to really be that confident in anything here. Hence why I said 6.75m wouldn't surprise me in the least.  Thanks for the compliment nonetheless.

[keysersoze123]

Just now, Porthos said:

The only thing stopping me from thinking 6m to 7m is the relative performance of three separate May movies here locally.  If even one of them pointed to north of 6m, I'd feel a lot better about centering my projection around 6.5m instead of choosing 6.25m as my center point.

 

And, hey, 7m could easily happen.  It'd only be .5m off the top of my range which isn't much.  I just have too many indicators pointing sub 6m for me to get too comfy in thinking 7m is the target.

  

And when it comes to reliability, I have far too little 4pm data to really be that confident in anything here. Hence why I said 6.75m wouldn't surprise me in the least.  Thanks for the compliment nonetheless.

Its not empty but well earned. I have been seeing you have been acing it week after week with strong logic. Your data though highly localized is at least not tiny like single theater. So its representative of a big city. occasionally something might veer way off but so does well researched political forecasting from 538.

[Porthos]

I'm taking a look @Menor's compilation of akvalley's daily tracker.

 

He had Aladdin at 22375 Thr sets at 5pm on its day of release.

 

KotM right now is at 22466 Thr sets at 5pm on its day of release.  

 

So if folks want a 7m in previews indicator, there it is. 

 

KotM was at 21853 coz like an ijjit I forgot to account for time zones.  

 

That'd be 6.8m.  Still over Sacramento, but not terribly so.

 

===

 

Like I said, Sacto could just be under-performing for KotM as much as it over-performed when it came to Aladdin.

Edited May 31, 2019 by Porthos
Derp Derp Derp

[Old Spice]

Just to flesh out my Salt Lake report a little more, I checked out the three IMAX screens in the suburbs of SLC to see if perhaps a disproportionate amount of sales were going to the large screens for preview night and this is what I got, all about 90 minutes before showtime:

 

Jordan Commons 191/426

The District 128/530

Legacy Crossing 113/616

Total 432/1572 27.5% (compared to 24.8% in my previous report.)

 

So a little better, but not much. To Minnale's point about the NBA finals though, Salt Lake is a rabid pro basketball town and that could be having a dampening effect, at least at the margins. The sports bars will all be doing bang up biz tonight. 

[TalismanRing]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I'm taking a look @Menor's compilation of akvalley's daily tracker.

 

He had Aladdin at 22375 Thr sets at 5pm on its day of release.

 

KotM right now is at 22466 Thr sets at 5pm on its day of release.  

 

So if folks want a 7m in previews indicator, there it is. 

 

===

 

Like I said, Sacto could just be under-performing for KotM as much as it over-performed when it came to Aladdin.

Except KoTM started shows at 4pm v Aladdin 6pm (with some scattered Fan Events at 5pm)

[Hokkaido MUTO]

KOTM has a 90% audience score, so I think that guarantees good word of mouth right? 

[TalismanRing]

1 minute ago, Hokkaido MUTO said:

KOTM has a 90% audience score, so I think that guarantees good word of mouth right? 

Still early

 

89% Verified with 156 votes

91% Unverified with 1,374 votes

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, Hokkaido MUTO said:

KOTM has a 90% audience score, so I think that guarantees good word of mouth right? 

Are you talking about fandango user reviews. I am seeing 89% but sample size is too small. Its < 200. I want to wait till tomorrow. But it's a good start for sure.

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Except KoTM started shows at 4pm v Aladdin 6pm (with some scattered Fan Events at 5pm)

Great point.  Probably best to wait till the final numbers come in late tonight (but before Deadline gives a range) to really be able to judge.

[Menor the Destroyer]

Pulse comps for Godzilla (its pacing slightly behind Aladdin so I'm assuming that's where it'll finish, at about 26k for the day).

 

PR2: 5.1

JW: FK: 8.63

Aladdin: 6.75

Pikachu: 6.18

Venom: 5.5 

Mission Impossible Fallout: 7.2

AMATW: 8.28

FB2: 5

Aquaman: 6.84

John Wick 3: 4.83

 

Since it seems to be doing well on IMAX, going with 6.

 

[WrathOfHan]

My theater:

 

All 3 of Ma's shows are doing great numbers in near-sellout territory.

Godzilla is doing decent but nothing spectacular. The 7:30 show was pretty full, as was the 4:00 Dolby. The 7:00 IMAX did decent

Rocketman's first Dolby show did gigantic, but the sole standard show did very little. The late Dolby show only has a few seats sold as well. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

15 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I'm taking a look @Menor's compilation of akvalley's daily tracker.

 

He had Aladdin at 22375 Thr sets at 5pm on its day of release.

 

KotM right now is at 22466 Thr sets at 5pm on its day of release.  

 

So if folks want a 7m in previews indicator, there it is. 

 

===

 

Like I said, Sacto could just be under-performing for KotM as much as it over-performed when it came to Aladdin.

Zilla was 21853 at 5pm, so a little under. My times are all in CT btw.