The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Stewart]

2 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Forgot to post this before, but it's not very wise to compare movies that are two years apart. Online ticket sales have been growing year after year, so outside of maybe last year, it's usually unwise to look at 2017 data and say, "oh yeah, this 2019 movie's gonna be big". Of course doing better than Incredibles 2 is very very good

I know  

 

But despite being 2.5 years apart, even being at the same level given the other factors I mentioned makes it at least worthwhile. Especially given we have actual figures from MTC for BATB, hence why I tagged Wang.

 

Always good to mention though as I probably should have in my post, especially for those new to BO tracking.

[ThomasNicole]

Even Variety being much more cautious, they are talking about $ 150M... yeah this is gonna be huge and laugh of everybody thinking it will sink.

[Tinalera]

Rocketman looks like might sellout 7pm showing tonight at Silvercity London.

Its recliner seating 111 seats. 

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Even Variety being much more cautious, they are talking about $ 150M... yeah this is gonna be huge and laugh of everybody thinking it will sink.

Live footage from Hades' apartment right now:

 

[charlie Jatinder]

Tracking should have it at $130-150mn, just like Incredibles 2. No issue.

[cdsacken]

That club is definitely dead. Murdered at the end but it was a bold fantastic one. I loved it

[Biggestgeekever]

Saw the Deadline article, and while it's probably a ted presumptuous at this point, if TS4 did open to $200M and got a great reception then I'd have to think $700M total was on the menu. Incredibles 2 got a 3.3 multiplier when it had to face Jurassic World 2 in its second weekend, Far From Home's impact will be less severe due to the Fourth of July holiday, and The Lion King is from the same studio so won't hurt it too severely plus it's almost a month away.

[keysersoze123]

8 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

Saw the Deadline article, and while it's probably a ted presumptuous at this point, if TS4 did open to $200M and got a great reception then I'd have to think $700M total was on the menu. Incredibles 2 got a 3.3 multiplier when it had to face Jurassic World 2 in its second weekend, Far From Home's impact will be less severe due to the Fourth of July holiday, and The Lion King is from the same studio so won't hurt it too severely plus it's almost a month away.

I agree its early to call for 200m. it would be awesome if they stick to that on the release week. But OW above Dory looks good to me.

[Taruseth]

1 hour ago, captainwondyful said:

I would like some receipts on this. Cause I am not following this logic. Toy Story 4 and TLK also open on non-Holiday weekends. So, why do you think Disney’s highest merchandise seller won’t open as high or higher than those IPs? 

Also true, just thought that Thanksgiving might draw a bit of the OWend gross towards Thanksgiving and I kinda think that Frozen 2 overall will be the leggiest of all releases.

[Taruseth]

42 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Disney gonna drop 50% in 2020 and Box office domestically will take hit of $2.25 Billion 

Just imagine losing half of the half box office and still having a solid shot at #1 for the year, Disney

[charlie Jatinder]

20 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

Just imagine losing half of the half box office and still having a solid shot at #1 for the year, Disney

Actually, I am expecting under $2Bn unless some miracle breakouts.

[keysersoze123]

Good news is Zilla is ahead of Aladdin on the Pulse Hourlies. it will still take till end of day for it take lead on 24 hour. I think Aladdin may take it back tomorrow again if nor on saturday. But Zilla vs Aladdin should be interesting. I think Zilla will win ( 60 to 45) but its not a done deal.

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Actually, I am expecting under $2Bn unless some miracle breakouts.

Disney 2020 at this point has
Black Widow
Eternals
Two Pixar originals (onward and other project totally under wraps).
One disney dragon animation movie
Mulan
Artemis Fowl
Jungle Cruise
Cruella?

 

Nothing screams uber breakouts and some of them could underperform big time. With disney having way fewer releases than other studios they are relying on uber breakouts.

 

I think WB will win 2020 for sure.

[Justin4125]

2 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Actually, I am expecting under $2Bn unless some miracle breakouts.

Yea, hard to recover from losing Avatar from the docket, they rely so heavily on their tentpoles and release so few films that their consistent reign over the past few years had to end eventually (though for Disney that means one year as merely a top 3 studio before likely taking back the #1 spot)

 

[XXR vs XXR]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Disney 2020 at this point has
Black Widow $250m
Eternals $300m
Two Pixar originals (onward and other project totally under wraps). $600m
One disney dragon animation movie $100m
Mulan $275m
Artemis Fowl $75m
Jungle Cruise $250m
Cruella $100m

 

Edited May 30, 2019 by VenomXXR

[YM!]

If Onward blows up tonight and TS4 opens I2 big ($175M-$180M OW), I can see it winning 2020 both domestic and worldwide not just for Disney but maybe the year, provided both WW1984 and Fast 9 see decreases.

Edited May 30, 2019 by YourMother the Edgelord

[filmlover]

I could see Cruella landing somewhere in the Mary Poppins Returns to Maleficent area depending on marketing. The hook is the same as the latter (big name Oscar-winning actress as a famous Disney villain).

[Porthos]

*clicks Next Post*

*sees I'm five/six pages behind despite being only three hours or so behind*

*thinks what the FUCK happened THIS TIME*

*sees SUPER EARLY Deadline Prediction Tracking Range Possible Target for TS4*

 

Ah.  That would do it.

 

Folks, c'mon.  This is STILL Deadline we're talking about here.  I get being excited. but you know... Deadline.

 

...

 

Just sayin', if this comes in at "only" 160-180 OW, no one better be disappointed. 

 

(That Fandago news is super good though, no two ways about it 👍)

 

[keysersoze123]

Despite what deadline is saying, I don’t see it beating I2 OW. That had 14  years of anticipation and play with adults better than Toy Story movie. But 150m would be crazy good as well. I Hope it goes higher.

 

Even Atom report is promising.

[YM!]

9 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I could see Cruella landing somewhere in the Mary Poppins Returns to Maleficent area depending on marketing. The hook is the same as the latter (big name Oscar-winning actress as a famous Disney villain).

On the contrary I don’t see Cruella going higher than Mary Poppins Returns. While Croods 2 may crawl towards $100M DOM, November is stacked with family competition, Lin Manuel Miranda/Sony musical Vivo, Paramount’s Clifford, and Disney’s own animated film not to mention it seems Fox’s Ron Gone Wrong is staying. Besides I don’t think kids care enough about 101 Dalmatians anyways or at least not as much as Dumbo or Christopher Robin.