The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Cap]

Crawl - Stuber - Hobbs & Shaw

Thursday Previews

 

Hobbs & Shaw
	6.28	7.1	7.8	Total	Sold	Shows	SOs
Empire 25	--	--	275	2737	--	9	0
Lincoln Square	65	82	141	1318	59	4	0
SM Cinemagic	10	10	10	1423	0	9	0

 

Empire 25 Previews
Crawl	74	310	23.87%
Stuber	55	292	18.83%

 

Lincoln Square isn't doing previews for Crawl or Stuber, and Cinemagic doesn't have their schedule up for the week yet.

[Porthos]

Thought people might like to see what the growth of TLK has been like locally, both on per-day sales and on overall sales, when compared to recent family flicks.

 

First, the raw stats.  Starting with T-16 and going through T-3 (T-2 to T-0 is when movies spike tremendously, so they're left off for now).

 

	Pika   Aladdin	TS4 	TLK
T-16:	33	47	68	149
T-15:	13	43	62	138
T-14:	18	21	54	89
T-13:	36	70	48	107
T-12:	29	46	36	133
T-11:	38	38	87	185
T-10:	41	44	70	219
T-9:	76	78	84	
T-8:	132	54	91	
T-7:	75	98	158	
T-6:	82	86	191	
T-5:	113	66	188	
T-4:	110	128	287	
T-3:	238	173	460	

And in chart form.

 

                Tickets sold per-day

 

 

                           Overall Sales

 

TLK, locally at least, looks to be ramping up earlier than both TS4 and Aladdin.  Now there are issues of premieres and review drops.  For instance, it was very late in the day for Aladdin when it came to the review drop and the US red carpet. Meanwhile TLK is scheduled to have theirs later today (premiere) and Wed (review embargo).  So that will very likely further ramp up the slope.

 

Then again, this IS only one market.  @captainwondyful, for instance, isn't seeing the same out of the theaters she is tracking.  So TLK could be over-performing locally.  Then again I thought Aladdin and TS4 over-performed locally but it could just be that we come out hard for family films and I should have never indexed it against JW2 in any capacity (this also might be more kids tickets being sold).

 

Either way, thought it might be a fun visual to compare/contrast TLK's last few days versus similar movies.

[XXR & Friends]

On 7/6/2019 at 12:17 PM, VenomXXR said:

 

The Lion King -- AMC Willowbrook 24 -- 12 Days to Previews

 

Dolby Prime: 2 show times, 149 tickets sold out of 410 available (36.34%)

IMAX: 2 show times, 74 tickets sold out of 302 available (24.50%)

3D: 10 show times, 33 tickets sold out of 794 available (04.16%)

Digital: 22 show times, 87 tickets sold out of 1311 available (06.63%)

Fan Event: 1 show time, 85 tickets sold out of 125 available (68.0%)

 

Total: 37 show times, 428 tickets sold out of 2942 available (14.55%)

 

 

Comps

Toy Story 4 - 822 tickets sold by 330pm on previews night

Pikachu - 280 tickets sold by 730pm on Wednesday before previews night

Aladdin - 267 tickets sold by 730pm on Wednesday before previews night

 

 

Will do a detailed account tomorrow at 8pm, but I just did a scan and we’ve hit 500 tickets sold (501 to be exact).

 

This makes TLK the number 4 preseller of the year behind Endgame, Captain Marvel and Toy Story 4.

[FlashMaster659]

21 hours ago, FlashMaster659 said:

 

The Lion King – AMC Ontario Mills 30 (Thursday Night)

 

Fan Event

 

5:00 PM - 140/167

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:00 PM - 163/203

9:00 PM - 158/203

12:00 AM - 58/203

 

3D Dine-In

 

6:00 PM - 23/78

6:30 PM - 12/63

7:00 PM - 15/78

8:45 PM - 16/60

9:15 PM - 4/78

9:45 PM - 6/63

10:15 PM - 4/78

 

RealD 3D

 

6:15 PM - 4/55

6:45 PM - 0/44

7:30 PM - 2/167

8:00 PM - 4/114

8:30 PM - 0/114

9:00 PM - 2/79

9:30 PM - 0/55

10:00 PM - 0/44

10:30 PM - 3/167

11:15 PM - 0/114

11:45 PM - 0/114

 

2D Dine-In

 

7:30 PM - 35/63

8:00 PM - 37/61

8:30 PM - 42/63

10:45 PM - 25/63

11:15 PM - 28/61

11:45 PM - 11/63

 

2D

 

6:00 PM - 20/44

6:15 PM - 15/55

6:30 PM - 55/217

6:45 PM - 0/48

7:00 PM - 22/79

7:15 PM - 21/44

7:45 PM - 17/44

8:00 PM - 18/45

8:15 PM - 23/167

8:30 PM - 9/45

8:45 PM - 2/44

9:00 PM - 9/49

9:15 PM - 1/44

9:30 PM - 2/55

9:45 PM - 3/217

10:00 PM - 0/48

10:15 PM - 2/79

10:30 PM - 0/44

11:00 PM - 0/44

11:15 PM - 0/45

11:30 PM - 7/167

11:45 PM - 0/45

 

Total

 

1018(+41)/4384 (23.2%)

 

The Lion King – AMC Ontario Mills 30 (Thursday Night)

 

Fan Event

 

5:00 PM - 141/167

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:00 PM - 166/203

9:00 PM - 157/203

12:00 AM - 60/203

 

3D Dine-In

 

6:00 PM - 23/78

6:30 PM - 14/63

7:00 PM - 15/78

8:45 PM - 16/60

9:15 PM - 7/78

9:45 PM - 6/63

10:15 PM - 4/78

 

RealD 3D

 

6:15 PM - 4/55

6:45 PM - 0/44

7:30 PM - 2/167

8:00 PM - 4/114

8:30 PM - 0/114

9:00 PM - 2/79

9:30 PM - 0/55

10:00 PM - 0/44

10:30 PM - 3/167

11:15 PM - 0/114

11:45 PM - 0/114

 

2D Dine-In

 

7:30 PM - 37/63

8:00 PM - 37/61

8:30 PM - 42/63

10:45 PM - 25/63

11:15 PM - 28/61

11:45 PM - 11/63

 

2D

 

6:00 PM - 20/44

6:15 PM - 15/55

6:30 PM - 57/217

6:45 PM - 0/48

7:00 PM - 32/79

7:15 PM - 21/44

7:45 PM - 17/44

8:00 PM - 20/45

8:15 PM - 23/167

8:30 PM - 9/45

8:45 PM - 7/44

9:00 PM - 9/49

9:15 PM - 1/44

9:30 PM - 2/55

9:45 PM - 3/217

10:00 PM - 7/48

10:15 PM - 2/79

10:30 PM - 0/44

11:00 PM - 0/44

11:15 PM - 0/45

11:30 PM - 7/167

11:45 PM - 0/45

 

Total

 

1056(+38)/4384 (24.1%)

 

1.4005x as many seats sold as Toy Story 4 nine days before previews.

[jedijake]

Is TLK really still on track to make $200 million OW?

[XXR & Friends]

10 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Is TLK really still on track to make $200 million OW?

 

As of right now, yes. Everything is building towards that as expected. 

[YM!]

The Lion King (in glorious computer animation) (9 before previews, 10 before release)

North Shore Cinema 

Mequon, WI

7/19/19

 

6:00 - 116/301 - UltraScreen 

8:00 - 16/121 - 3D 

9:00 - 30/301 - UltraScreen 

11:00 - 0/121 - 3D 

12:00 - 2/301 - UltraScreen 

 

 

683% of Aladdin ($625.25M OW)

631% of Pokémon Detective Pikachu ($343.77M OW)

273% of Toy Story 4 ($330.46M OW)

208% of Incredibles 2 ($375.74M OW)

186% of Spider-Man: Homecoming ($218.04M OW)

 

I am going to be real with y’all, I just can’t see this with an OW under $200M OW at this point.

Edited July 9, 2019 by YourMother the Edgelord

[XXR & Friends]

4 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

The Lion King (in glorious computer animation) (9 before previews, 10 before release)

North Shore Cinema 

Mequon, WI

7/19/19

 

6:00 - 116/301 - UltraScreen 

8:00 - 16/121 - 3D 

9:00 - 30/301 - UltraScreen 

11:00 - 0/121 - 3D 

12:00 - 2/301 - UltraScreen 

 

 

The comps are coming but 

683% of Aladdin ($625.25M OW)

273% of Toy Story 4 ($330.46M OW)

208% of Incredibles 2 ($375.74M OW)

 

 

Wow. Your theater is way ahead of most of us. I imagine though that parity will be met a bit as we get closer to release, due to be limited amount of show times.

[YM!]

8 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

Wow. Your theater is way ahead of most of us. I imagine though that parity will be met a bit as we get closer to release, due to be limited amount of show times.

That’s the thing. The Lion King is also at a limited amount of showtimes here, on next Tuesday when I do my final update, I wouldn’t be surprised if it got 10 showtimes on Thursday.

[The GOAT]

3 hours ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

The Lion King (in glorious computer animation) (9 before previews, 10 before release)

North Shore Cinema 

Mequon, WI

7/19/19

 

6:00 - 116/301 - UltraScreen 

8:00 - 16/121 - 3D 

9:00 - 30/301 - UltraScreen 

11:00 - 0/121 - 3D 

12:00 - 2/301 - UltraScreen 

 

 

683% of Aladdin ($625.25M OW)

631% of Pokémon Detective Pikachu ($343.77M OW)

273% of Toy Story 4 ($330.46M OW)

208% of Incredibles 2 ($375.74M OW)

186% of Spider-Man: Homecoming ($218.04M OW)

 

I am going to be real with y’all, I just can’t see this with an OW under $200M OW at this point.

MOTHER OF GOD.

[SoSaysI]

4 hours ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

The Lion King (in glorious computer animation) (9 before previews, 10 before release)

North Shore Cinema 

Mequon, WI

7/19/19

 

6:00 - 116/301 - UltraScreen 

8:00 - 16/121 - 3D 

9:00 - 30/301 - UltraScreen 

11:00 - 0/121 - 3D 

12:00 - 2/301 - UltraScreen 

 

 

683% of Aladdin ($625.25M OW)

631% of Pokémon Detective Pikachu ($343.77M OW)

273% of Toy Story 4 ($330.46M OW)

208% of Incredibles 2 ($375.74M OW)

186% of Spider-Man: Homecoming ($218.04M OW)

 

I am going to be real with y’all, I just can’t see this with an OW under $200M OW at this point.

If the social media reactions and reviews this week are glowing it really feels like this is going to explode (and I doubt Disney would be dropping the embargo this week if they weren't incredibly confident).

[Porthos]

Wonder if there will be a tiny bump in H&S today with the FF9 casting news today.

 

(yes I realize it won't take much to boost it)

[Porthos]

35 minutes ago, SoSaysI said:

(and I doubt Disney would be dropping the embargo this week if they weren't incredibly confident).

Quote

 70%

TOMATOMETER

Total Count: 447

 

 

===

 

I get what you're saying and the buzz around TLK is such that this is probably right.  But I've been burned before on "releasing reviews early, they must be confident" and not just with the above movie.

Edited July 9, 2019 by Porthos

[ThomasNicole]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

===

 

I get what you're saying and the buzz around TLK is such that this is probably right.  But I've been burned before on "releasing reviews early, they must be confident" and not just with the above movie.

With Solo i think is not confidence, is more like desperate hoping for people too see the movie isn't trashed by critics and decided to go and see it.

 

Other studios usually release reviews early even when the movie is bad, but with Disney specifically, they're holding the reviews until close to release date when it's bad for some time. For the past years, i think the lowest rated movies they drop the embargo early is Solo and BATB, both which still have 70%.

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

With Solo i think is not confidence, is more like desperate hoping for people too see the movie isn't trashed by critics and decided to go and see it.

 

Other studios usually release reviews early even when the movie is bad, but with Disney specifically, they're holding the reviews until close to release date when it's bad for some time. For the past years, i think the lowest rated movies they drop the embargo early is Solo and BATB, both which still have 70%.

My point was, I heard the refrain of "Disney must be incredibly confident" back then and I think much like "reviews are being held to the last moment; it must be terrible" we collectively place too much emphasis on it.  BatB itself you note was released early and still got decent but not glowing reviews.

 

Not that 70| 6.4/10 is bad (Solo's RT score).  Just that I am a little weary of over-interpreting review embargo lifts

[Inceptionzq]

On 7/8/2019 at 1:48 PM, Inceptionzq said:

 

The Lion King Thursday Night Showings Denver Metro

 

AMC Westminster Promenade 24:

IMAX: 

7 PM – 35/411(+1)

10 PM – 11/411(+2)

 

Real D 3D:

6:30 PM – 0/48

7:10 PM – 5/48

9:25 PM – 0/48

10:05 PM – 0/48

 

Prime 3D:

7:30 PM – 64/187(+5)

10:30 PM – 3/187

 

Dolby:

6 PM- 138/217(+7)

9 PM – 65/217(+6)

11:50 PM – 5/217

 

2D: 

6 PM – 42/158

6 PM – 4/56

6:10 PM – 5/48(+5)

6:20 PM – 4/44

6:40 PM – 0/94

6:50 PM – 11/92

7:20 PM – 11/44

7:40 PM – 2/56

7:50 PM – 0/44

8 PM – 5/40

8:10 PM – 2/36

8:20 PM – 5/48

8:30 PM – 4/94

8:40 PM – 0/92

8:50 PM – 0/44

9:05 PM – 4/158

9:10 PM – 0/56

9:15 PM – 0/48

9:20 PM – 0/44

9:30 PM – 3/94

9:45 PM – 0/92

10:15 PM – 0/44

10:40 PM – 2/56

10:50 PM – 0/44

11 PM – 0/40

11:10 PM – 0/36

11:20 PM – 0/48

11:30 PM – 0/94

11:40 PM – 0/92

11:50 PM – 0/44

11:55 PM – 0/56

12:00 AM – 1/158(+1)

 

AMC Highlands Ranch 24:

IMAX: 

7 PM – 67/384(+6)

10 PM – 6/384

 

Real D 3D: 

6:30 PM – 5/85(+2)

7:30 PM – 0/52

9:30 PM – 0/85

10:30 PM – 0/52

 

Dolby: 

6 PM – 88/210(+11)

9 PM – 52/210(+2)

 

2D:

6 PM – 35/159(+8)

6:10 PM – 0/52

6:15 PM – 0/52

6:20 PM – 0/41

6:40 PM – 21/85(+6)

6:50 PM – 4/39

7:10 PM – 7/45

7:15 PM – 4/85

7:20 PM – 0/45

7:40 PM – 0/52

7:50 PM – 0/39

8 PM – 8/159

8:10 PM – 0/45

8:20 PM – 0/41

8:30 PM – 14/85

9:10 PM – 0/52

9:15 PM – 2/52

9:20 PM – 0/41

9:30 PM – 0/159

9:40 PM – 0/85

9:50 PM – 0/39

10:10 PM – 0/45

10:15 PM – 0/85

10:20 PM – 0/45

10:40 PM – 0/52

10:50 PM – 0/39

11 PM – 2/159

 

Total from 7 theaters: 1654(+98)/18205 (9.1%)

An overall better day than yesterday for the two theaters I show. The other 5 theaters… not so hot.

 

 

The Lion King Thursday Night Showings Denver Metro

AMC Westminster Promenade 24:

IMAX:

7 PM – 39/411(+4)

10 PM – 11/411

 

Real D 3D:

6:30 PM – 1/48(+1)

7:10 PM – 5/48

9:25 PM – 0/48

10:05 PM – 0/48

 

Prime 3D:

7:30 PM – 65/187(+1)

10:30 PM – 3/187

 

Dolby:

6 PM- 142/217(+4)

9 PM – 66/217(+1)

11:50 PM – 6/217(+1)

 

2D:

6 PM – 42/158

6 PM – 4/56

6:10 PM – 5/48

6:20 PM – 8/44(+4)

6:40 PM – 2/94(+2)

6:50 PM – 11/92

7:20 PM – 15/44(+4)

7:40 PM – 4/56(+2)

7:50 PM – 0/44

8 PM – 7/40(+2)

8:10 PM – 2/36

8:20 PM – 5/48

8:30 PM – 4/94

8:40 PM – 0/92

8:50 PM – 0/44

9:05 PM – 4/158

9:10 PM – 0/56

9:15 PM – 0/48

9:20 PM – 0/44

9:30 PM – 3/94

9:45 PM – 0/92

10:15 PM – 0/44

10:40 PM – 2/56

10:50 PM – 0/44

11 PM – 0/40

11:10 PM – 0/36

11:20 PM – 0/48

11:30 PM – 0/94

11:40 PM – 0/92

11:50 PM – 0/44

11:55 PM – 0/56

12:00 AM – 1/158

 

AMC Highlands Ranch 24:

IMAX:

7 PM – 71/384(+4)

10 PM – 9/384(+3)

 

Real D 3D:

6:30 PM – 7/85(+2)

7:30 PM – 0/52

9:30 PM – 0/85

10:30 PM – 0/52

 

Dolby:

6 PM – 98/210(+10)

9 PM – 57/210(+5)

 

2D:

6 PM – 35/159

6:10 PM – 0/52

6:15 PM – 2/52(+2)

6:20 PM – 0/41

6:40 PM – 21/85

6:50 PM – 4/39

7:10 PM – 7/45

7:15 PM – 4/85

7:20 PM – 0/45

7:40 PM – 0/52

7:50 PM – 0/39

8 PM – 8/159

8:10 PM – 0/45

8:20 PM – 0/41

8:30 PM – 14/85

9:10 PM – 0/52

9:15 PM – 2/52

9:20 PM – 0/41

9:30 PM – 0/159

9:40 PM – 0/85

9:50 PM – 0/39

10:10 PM – 0/45

10:15 PM – 0/85

10:20 PM – 0/45

10:40 PM – 0/52

10:50 PM – 0/39

11 PM – 2/159

 

Total from 7 theaters: 1760(+106)/18042(-163) (9.8%)

One showing was taken off, but it had only sold 5 tickets. So, 111 tickets were sold.

[Menor the Destroyer]

Hobbs and Shaw:

Thursday: 

Theaters: 228

Showings: 578

Tickets Sold: 2174 (5% of TLK yesterday, a terrible comp but I don't have a lot of them yet)

Tickets Available: 79133

Estimated ATP: 12.29

Estimated Total Sales: $26714 

Estimated Nationwide Sales: $240k (5% of TLK yesterday)

 

I have full weekend data but it's similarly terrible/not particularly interesting. One interesting thing is that it seems to have a significantly lower 3D/premium format penetration than TLK.

 

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, Menor said:

One interesting thing is that it seems to have a significantly lower 3D/premium format penetration than TLK.

 

Not surprised given all Cinemark 3D showings disappeared yesterday/today locally.  

 

One interesting note.  That showing at one of the local Century Theaters that inexplicably shifted to 2D to 3D late last night?  Gone now.  Which is bad for H&S as that showing had the second most tickets in the sold in the region (16).

 

Gotta be a glitch.  If not some FF fans might be a bit irked first that their showing got changed to 3D, then disappeared entirely.

Edited July 9, 2019 by Porthos

[Menor the Destroyer]

10 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Not surprised given all Cinemark 3D showings disappeared yesterday/today locally.  

 

One interesting note.  That showing at one of the local Century Theaters that inexplicably shifted to 2D to 3D late last night?  Gone now.  Which is bad for H&S as that showing had the second most tickets in the sold in the region (16).

 

Gotta be a glitch.  If not some FF fans might be a bit irked first that their showing got changed to 3D, then disappeared entirely.

Seems to be a nationwide thing. Only 404 seats available for 3D showings (out of 79133 total seats available). Meanwhile TLK has 67k out of 402k. And FSS only has 186 tickets available each day for 3D showings!!

Edited July 9, 2019 by Menor

[FlashMaster659]

deleted

Edited July 9, 2019 by FlashMaster659