The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 minutes ago, cax16 said:

 

Would have been shocked if it didn't, but a good sign nevertheless.

51 minutes ago, frozenheart1993 said:

Sorry, I don't quite understand what you mean. Do you think F2 can hardly exceed 140M OW?

I definitely think it can beat 140. I meant that my general feel of the buzz seemed to imply it was headed in that direction, but that's a very subjective thing.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

Beating the Fandango 24 hour number holds a lot more weight than the Atom number, but TS4 beat I2’s 24 hour number and didn’t event hit 2/3rds of its OW. I see no reason to deviate from my $140-$160m OW prediction for Frozen 2. 

Edited November 5, 2019 by VenomXXR

[Nova]

31 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

FWIW (little) I'm a 23 yo single dude and Frozen might be my favorite "not a Disney SH" property of the decade. WDAS has a wide reach, even for entries with more of a skew one way or the other.

I mean I got tickets for it during Thanksgiving break the moment they went on sale 😎 I loved the first one. It’s in the top 3 of my favorite animation films and sometimes takes the cake depending on my mood. I’m really looking forward to the sequel. 

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, cax16 said:

 

 

6 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

Not exactly a surprise given the data we already had, but good to get confirmation.

 

Also, gonna presume it is under TLK’s first day sales, as they would have mentioned it if it was over it. 

 

Now the the real test of staying power begins.

[Darth Lehnsherr]

37 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

FWIW (little) I'm a 23 yo single dude and Frozen might be my favorite "not a Disney SH" property of the decade. WDAS has a wide reach, even for entries with more of a skew one way or the other.

And the marketing for Frozen 2 (at least the trailers) has been pretty clear to appeal to all demos too with playing up the action and adventure aspects. 

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1527

3153

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1578

3926

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
7404	34	22870	32.37%	9	182

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1527

3153

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1588

3926

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
7456	52	22870	32.60%	9	182

 

Over 98% of The Lion King's final total.

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Doctor Sleep Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

53

346

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

31

329

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
155	37	3496	4.43%	9	22

 

Adjusted Zombieland 2 comp: 1.52M

Adjusted Gemini Man comp: 1.56M

Terminator comp: 1.63M

IT 2 comp: 1.03M

Doctor Sleep Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

63

346

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

50

539

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
207	52	4987	4.15%	9	30

 

Showings added: 8

Seats added: 1491

 

Adjusted Zombieland 2 comp: 1.42M

Adjusted Gemini Man comp: 1.7M

IT 2 comp: 1.13M

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Frozen 2 Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

65

1030

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

110

1695

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 9 HOURS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
466	466	9539	4.89%	9	55

Frozen 2 Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

105

1030

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

139

1695

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
631	165	9539	6.61%	9	55

[keysersoze123]

7 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Frozen 2 Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

105

1030

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

139

1695

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
631	165	9539	6.61%	9	55

That is very good as we are just into day 2. Any comparisons. Did you track TLK?

[Inceptionzq]

18 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

That is very good as we are just into day 2. Any comparisons. Did you track TLK?

I did, but no comps until tomorrow. It’s gonna look really bad though. I tracked 6 theaters at that point for TLK, and it was at 1114 tickets sold. In the same theaters, Frozen is currently at 362. TLK has an extra week of sales at that point, which is largely why it’ll look so bad.

 

Another reason it’ll look bad is because Frozen has been doing horribly at theaters not named Century X or AMC Y. I have 3 theaters that aren’t from those chains, and they are barely selling more than 10% of the total. Normally, I would expect closer to 20% right now.
 

But this shouldn’t affect the Lion King comps as much as the week difference in time of presales. Mostly just something to think about when looking at the AMC and Cinemark/Century data.

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

I did, but no comps until tomorrow. It’s gonna look really bad though. I tracked 6 theaters at that point for TLK, and it was at 1114 tickets sold. In the same theaters, Frozen is currently at 362. TLK has an extra week of sales at that point, which is largely why it’ll look so bad.

 

Another reason it’ll look bad is because Frozen has been doing horribly at theaters not named Century X or AMC Y. I have 3 theaters that aren’t from those chains, and they are barely selling more than 10% of the total. Normally, I would expect closer to 20% right now.
 

But this shouldn’t affect the Lion King comps as much as the week difference in time of presales. Mostly just something to think about when looking at the AMC and Cinemark/Century data.

Thank you. It should have faster pace with fewer days of Presales. So if you can say its selling about 50% more for that day despite being 30% below overall number then it will ultimately catch up. But if it started late and also selling fewer tickets at the same point than it’s not good going.

[a2k]

Shrek1 Fri-Tue 50

Shrek2 Wed-Sun 129

 

Fri-Tue 5-day is not as strong as Wed-Sun 5-day as in the latter case the weekdays are the opening days and have heavy traffic while with the former the weekdays come in later when families are waiting for the 2nd weekend, but say Shrek1 had done 60 with Wed-Sun 5-day. That gives Shrek2 a 115% bump.

 

If Frozen2 gets such a bump then it's 5-day would be 209 but again as it's weekdays will be post FSS and not before we can reduce that amount by some just like we increased Shrek from 50 to 60. I think 185-190 5-day would be fair value in this comparison (Frozen behaving like Shrek) which gives 160+ FSS.

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Cin Prev -17514/379399 (2363 shows)
Cin OD - 25188/733754 (4328 shows)
Cin D2 - 30428/735045(4364 shows )
Cin D3 -  15701/73083(4316 shows).

 

Good increase since the afternoon especially for OD and Day 2. Day 3 moved like Previews over past 6 hours. I will update in the morning which would be 24 hours.

 

But outside Cinemark I have only looked at anecdotal data that I posted above and even at Drafthouse where shows sellout easily, thursday sales are slow but Saturday shows are filling out. Checked out few Regal theaters also is very slow including RPX shows. Regal Hacienda in bay area has not listed Imax or ScreenX. Just 2 2D and 1 3D show. So minus Cinemark the plexes have not put in lots of shows. 

Frozen 2 (T-16)

Cin Prev - 21980/382140 2384 shows (+4466)
Cin OD - 32294/735671  4342 shows  (+7106)
Cin D2 - 38954/733103 $370860 4355 shows (+8526)
Cin D3 - 20033/730619 $185432 4312 shows (+4332)

Overall +24436

 

Awesome day indeed. It slowed down but selling almost 25k tickets for OW is great. Unfortunately AMC is still putting requests through a queue and so I would like to wait until I get those before making any prediction.

 

[The Wild Eric]

To let people know, I did track numbers tonight. But I have to get up super early tomorrow, so I'm going straight to bed and posting my stuff in the morning. It stinks, but this stuff happens.

[FlashMaster659]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Inland Empire Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-44 Days

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Seats Left	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	256	12135	53600	41465	22.64%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 37

[FlashMaster659]

Frozen II Inland Empire Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-16 Days

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Seats Left	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	104	1216	26666	25450	4.56%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 1

Total Seats Added Today: 236

Total Seats Sold Today: 244

 

===

 

Another great day for Frozen 2. It should be able to maintain a solid pace as pre-sales started a week later.

Edited November 6, 2019 by FlashMaster659

[FlashMaster659]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Frozen 2 (T-16)

Cin Prev - 21980/382140 2384 shows (+4466)
Cin OD - 32294/735671  4342 shows  (+7106)
Cin D2 - 38954/733103 $370860 4355 shows (+8526)
Cin D3 - 20033/730619 $185432 4312 shows (+4332)

Overall +24436

 

Awesome day indeed. It slowed down but selling almost 25k tickets for OW is great. Unfortunately AMC is still putting requests through a queue and so I would like to wait until I get those before making any prediction.

 

Wow so Frozen 2's Saturday is basically beating TLK T-10 already

[Porthos]

The Rise of Skywalker Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-44 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	204	12619	24000	11381	47.42%

 

Total Showings Added Today	10
Total Seats Added Today	752
Total Seats Sold Today	73

 

T-44 Adjusted Comp (EXTREMELY LOL - DON'T USE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING)

	%		Sold T-44	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
CM	429.55		57	2531		0/81	8083/10614	23.85%		88.92m
TROS (adj)	n/a		70	10872		2/204	11866/22738	47.81%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Captain Marvel.

---

Estimated TROS Gross So Far:

	%		Final Sold		TROS Sold		Comp
IW	64.07		15159		9713		24.99m
DP2	119.43		8133		9713		22.21m
Solo	167.78		5789		9713		23.66m
JW:FK	155.96		6228		9713		23.86m
AM&tW	210.92		4605		9713		24.26m
Venom	224.37		4493		10081		22.44m
CM	103.02		10553		10872		21.33m
EG	40.79		26655		10872		24.47m
TLK	99.04		10977		10872		22.78m
It 2	201.11		5659		11381		21.12m
AVG							23.11m

NOTE: FINAL SOLD is the amount of tickets sold at stop of tracking for the given movie and TROS SOLD is the amount of tickets sold so far at the same theaters I had tracking info for the movie in question.

Edited November 6, 2019 by Porthos

[Porthos]

Frozen 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-16 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	114	15242	16334	1092	6.69%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

191

 

Day Two Adjusted Comps

	%		Sold Day Two	Total Sold		Sellouts / Shows	Seats Left / Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
Aladdin	265.10		173	404		0/68	9001/9405	4.30%		18.56m
TS4	119.40		208	897		0/87	10674/11571	7.75%		14.33m
TLK	75.90		261	1411		0/138	15836/17247	8.18%		17.46m
Frozen 2 (adj)	n/a		184	1071		0/114	12935/14006	7.65%		n/a

PRE-SALES NOTE: Aladdin and The Lion King both had 25 days of pre-sales and Toy Story 4 had 24 days of pre-sales.  In comparison Frozen 2 had 18 days of pre-sales. 

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  Frozen 2 (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for all of the movies in that stat block.

[Porthos]

Just another day in paradise for TROS.  Even better for its prospects, 10 showings were added at two of the busier theaters in town.  True, half of the showings are after 10pm, so they won't account for much for a while.  But four of the showings are smack in the middle of the 6pm to 8:30pm window. So it'll be interesting to see how quickly they fill out.

 

Frozen 2 had a strong day, but not quite as strong as the Day Two's of both TS4 and TLK.   The comp against TLK was more or less a wash (only very slightly under yesterday's pace), but TS4 was more robust locally.  Could just be local variation at play.  This is one of the reasons I like to comp starts of runs, so I can see the relative takeoffs.

 

(yes, yes, "crumbling" -  consider the jokes as read )

 

Still, wasn't too far off the pace.  And it did have a very strong day yesterday, so we'll see where it goes from here.  Even so, a very good day for it, IMO.