The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Menor the Destroyer]

16 minutes ago, frozenheart1993 said:

Hello, bother, I want to ask 23k tickets for Saturday is a good or a bad situation?

After 12 days of ticket sales TLK was at 33k tickets for Saturday at the same chain. Take from that what you will.

Edited November 5, 2019 by Menor

[TLK]

Frozen was never going to match Avengers or SW9 on the first day of presale. I have it at around BATB OW numbers with a better multiplier and these very early presales are consistent with it.

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

There is a fan event at AMC but its for 10AM on Saturday. Has that happened before? Normally it happens around the time previews happen. I guess it makes sense for F2 considering the audience base will prefer Saturday Morning. I see 103 shows at AMC. None at Cinemark.

Yeah, I talked about this a couple of days ago (not going to bother pulling up the post).  As far as I know, it's something brand new.

 

What's damned odd about it is that, as far as I know, it's an AMC exclusive.  While AMC does have a pretty good national penetration it is by no means over the entire country.  Disney is potentially leaving some dollars on the table by doing this.

 

I hope it is a one-time thing and Dolby just gave them a great deal coz I won't be pleased to see the Opening Night Fan Events shift to AMC only, as I don't have one within 60 minutes of my home.

[filmlover]

While looking at Frozen's sales around here (they're great), I also looked at the sales for this weekend's openers and so far Midway is selling the best while Doctor Sleep is selling the worst. Could that actually see a smaller opening than Pet Sematary? Cause it's gonna need to post some really good walk ups.

[jedijake]

So Frozen 2 has a chance of beating TROS in both opening weekend and domestic total

[cdsacken]

6 minutes ago, jedijake said:

So Frozen 2 has a chance of beating TROS in both opening weekend and domestic total

Nah

[XXR vs XXR]

14 minutes ago, jedijake said:

So Frozen 2 has a chance of beating TROS in both opening weekend and domestic total

 

Both are highly unlikely.

[Eric the Ape]

It's been a few hours, and obviously they have different patterns, but Frozen 2 isn't anywhere close to TROS here in Philly, even for the first day of presales. Hell, it's considerably behind Lion King, although it could change when I check tonight

[John Marston]

23 minutes ago, jedijake said:

So Frozen 2 has a chance of beating TROS in both opening weekend and domestic total

Opening weekend no

 

total maybe. Could at least come close 

[Menor the Destroyer]

I'm not gonna argue with these takes just yet, but if we get another few days of good sales I will. I don't think beating TROS OW is necessarily as impossible as y'all think.

[Porthos]

Mostly depends on what one thinks the floor is for TROS's OW and what the ceiling is for Frozen 2.

 

Is the ceiling for Frozen 2 200m? Well, I'd say "ask me in a few days", but we still have the cautionary tale of TS4's first few days (once again, "thanks Deadline").

 

I will say I personally don't think it is impossible for F2 to approach 200m OW and it's not impossible for TROS to have a 190m OW.  But I personally think that's the ceiling/floor scenario I mentioned.  Everything going right and then some on the case of Frozen 2.  It'd have to have a major zeitgeist moment and by definition I think those are hard to forecast with very (or no) limited data.

 

How likely that is, I'll wait a few days before ruminating on further.  I especially want to see the number Sacto comes up with tonight, for instance.

 

Edited November 5, 2019 by Porthos

[Menor the Destroyer]

10 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Mostly depends on what one thinks the floor is for TROS's OW and what the ceiling is for Frozen 2.

 

Is the ceiling for Frozen 2 200m? Well, I'd say "ask me in a few days", but we still have the cautionary tale of TS4's first few days (once again, "thanks Deadline").

 

I will say I personally don't think it is impossible for F2 to approach 200m OW and it's not impossible for TROS to have a 190m OW.  But I personally think that's the ceiling/floor scenario I mentioned.  Everything going right and then some on the case of Frozen 2.  It'd have to have a major zeitgeist moment and by definition I think those are hard to forecast with very (or no) limited data.

 

How likely that is, I'll wait a few days before ruminating on further.  I especially want to see the number Sacto comes up with tonight, for instance.

 

Yep this is my view on it as well.

[Legion Again]

1 hour ago, jedijake said:

So Frozen 2 has a chance of beating TROS in both opening weekend and domestic total

Yes, but not what you'd call a good chance for OW. I'd say about 7% and 40% respectively atm, but that could change a lot in a week depending in what we see.

[XXR vs XXR]

At my theater, F2 isn’t anywhere near TLK. It’s not even at TS4 level. The caveat being most kids aren’t off on 11/21 like they were for either TLK or TS4 previews, but so far it’s nothing gangbusters on my end. I can definitely see a scenario with a sub-$15m preview but a 12x multi.

[Legion Again]

Basically on the same page as Menor and porthos here. It's not so crazy to imagine TLK ballpark numbers for TROS on the low end and F2 on the high end. The trick is that both would be needed, which is a much bigger ask than just 1.

[keysersoze123]

LOL. F2 is not in the same ballpark as SW9. SW9 sales is not just for previews. Its quite strong for friday/saturday and sunday is also starting to fill up. F2 is a kids flick. Its business will be spread out this thanksgiving weekend.

 

Plus looked at AMC which is 20% of BO and its not that great compared to TLK. Showcounts are very low. Metreon does not even have previews !!!!

 

I just dont see F2 beating SW9 opening weekend at all. Domestic total anything could happen. It could again become a phenomenon. But I am not on that train despite OD PS.

[PKMLover]

So how much is the presale for the whole opening weekend for Frozen 2 so far??? Can the OW has a chance at $140M??

Edited November 5, 2019 by PKMLover

[Old Spice]

Frozen 2, Salt Lake Cinemark Sugarhouse preview night, after 13 hours.

 

Total tix sold- 76

 

Only two comps

TROS- 423

Joker -32

[Menor the Destroyer]

10 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

LOL. F2 is not in the same ballpark as SW9. SW9 sales is not just for previews. Its quite strong for friday/saturday and sunday is also starting to fill up. F2 is a kids flick. Its business will be spread out this thanksgiving weekend.

 

Plus looked at AMC which is 20% of BO and its not that great compared to TLK. Showcounts are very low. Metreon does not even have previews !!!!

 

I just dont see F2 beating SW9 opening weekend at all. Domestic total anything could happen. It could again become a phenomenon. But I am not on that train despite OD PS.

Just saying TLK was not in the same universe as SW9 for first day either. But I don't think SW9 will be more than 50 million above it in the end. And while Thursday may be below TLK I have a feeling Friday and Saturday are running ahead.

[keysersoze123]

8 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

One theater I tracked closely for TLK till Joker was AMC Empire 25.

Initial number for Frozen
Dolby - 83/225(6PM), 49/225(845PM)
Imax - 54/303(630PM), 15/303(915PM)
2D - 5/377(7PM), 3/377(945PM)
Total: 209/1810 $4853

 

Joker sold over 1000 tickets on day 1. I am thinking Dolby 6PM will be near sellout and strong sales at Dolby 845PM and 630PM Imax. 2D will start slow. Surprising it did not get Prime or any 3D shows.

Update

AMC Empire 25(Frozen Previews)

Dolby - 105/225(6PM), 49/225(845PM)

Imax - 70/303(630PM), 20/303(915PM)

2D - 6/377(7PM), 3/377(945PM)

Overall - 253/1810

 

So +42 tickets in past 8 hours. It tapered off faster than what I thought. This is one of the busiest plexes in New York City.