The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[a2k]

3 hours ago, Porthos said:

Frozen 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-16 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	114	15242	16334	1092	6.69%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

191

 

Day Two Adjusted Comps

	%		Sold Day Two	Total Sold		Sellouts / Shows	Seats Left / Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
Aladdin	265.10		173	404		0/68	9001/9405	4.30%		18.56m
TS4	119.40		208	897		0/87	10674/11571	7.75%		14.33m
TLK	75.90		261	1411		0/138	15836/17247	8.18%		17.46m
Frozen 2 (adj)	n/a		184	1071		0/114	12935/14006	7.65%		n/a

PRE-SALES NOTE: Aladdin and The Lion King both had 25 days of pre-sales and Toy Story 4 had 24 days of pre-sales.  In comparison Frozen 2 had 18 days of pre-sales. 

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  Frozen 2 (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for all of the movies in that stat block.

TLK 8.35x the previews over OW

TS4 10x
Aladdin 13x

Frozen2 OW will be front-loaded no doubt. Not as much as TLK but TS4 10x is a nice benchmark. TS4 was in summer where previews are more inflated so Frozen2 has that in it's favour but the rush for Frozen2 might negate that factor.

 

15-17 previews, 9-10x multi gives 135-170 ow

[Felandria]

Looking at the showtimes this coming week, it looks like AMC is splitting the Dolbys between Doctor Sleep and Midway, except in theaters that also have an IMAX, in those cases Doctor Sleep talkers the IMAX and Midway shares the Dolby with Terminator.

 

Disney Springs is actually splitting both the Dolby and the giant 550+ auditorium between Sleep and Midway, alternating them in both cases.

 

Also Of note, they already cut Arctic Dogs down to two shows, but instead of giving those extra times to one of the new movies, they brought back Ad Astra instead.

[john2000]

42 minutes ago, a2k said:

TLK 8.35x the previews over OW

TS4 10x
Aladdin 13x

Frozen2 OW will be front-loaded no doubt. Not as much as TLK but TS4 10x is a nice benchmark. TS4 was in summer where previews are more inflated so Frozen2 has that in it's favour but the rush for Frozen2 might negate that factor.

 

15-17 previews, 9-10x multi gives 135-170 ow

thats 3 ?

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 hours ago, FlashMaster659 said:

Wow so Frozen 2's Saturday is basically beating TLK T-10 already

Not basically, it is, and by a decent margin. And Friday isn't too far off either.

 

Edited November 6, 2019 by Menor

[frozenheart1993]

3 hours ago, Menor said:

Not basically, it is, and by a decent margin. And Friday isn't too far off either.

 

Sorry to bother, I am from Japan, so I am very bad about the English grammar.You mean  Frozen 2's Saturday is  beating TLK T-10 right or not?Thank you 

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, frozenheart1993 said:

Sorry to bother, I am from Japan, so I am very bad about the English grammar.You mean  Frozen 2's Saturday is  beating TLK T-10 right or not?Thank you 

Yes, at Cinemark

[PKMLover]

10 minutes ago, frozenheart1993 said:

Sorry to bother, I am from Japan, so I am very bad about the English grammar.You mean  Frozen 2's Saturday is  beating TLK T-10 right or not?Thank you 

Can I ask you about the buzz for Frozen 2 in Japan currently? Are people there excited about it??

Edited November 6, 2019 by PKMLover

[keysersoze123]

8 hours ago, Porthos said:

Just another day in paradise for TROS.  Even better for its prospects, 10 showings were added at two of the busier theaters in town.  True, half of the showings are after 10pm, so they won't account for much for a while.  But four of the showings are smack in the middle of the 6pm to 8:30pm window. So it'll be interesting to see how quickly they fill out.

 

Frozen 2 had a strong day, but not quite as strong as the Day Two's of both TS4 and TLK.   The comp against TLK was more or less a wash (only very slightly under yesterday's pace), but TS4 was more robust locally.  Could just be local variation at play.  This is one of the reasons I like to comp starts of runs, so I can see the relative takeoffs.

 

(yes, yes, "crumbling" -  consider the jokes as read )

 

Still, wasn't too far off the pace.  And it did have a very strong day yesterday, so we'll see where it goes from here.  Even so, a very good day for it, IMO.

Do you have T-16 numbers comparisons as well.

[Eric the IF]

Doctor Sleep Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	34	144	6,881	2.09%

 

 

Total Shows Added Today: 6

Total Seats Added Today: 1,900

Total Seats Sold Today: 45

 

Comp

1.469x of Crawl 2 days before release (1.47M)

0.157x of Once Upon (910K)

0.738x of Scary Stories (1.72M)

0.075x of It: Chapter Two (792K)

0.746x of Ad Astra (1.12M)

0.464x of Terminator (1.09M)

 

I mean it's...better, but none of these numbers instpire much confidence in anything over 25M. 20M might even be a stretch. But we'll see what happen.

[Eric the IF]

Last Christmas Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	20	51	2,907	1.75%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 2

Total Seats Added Today: 232

Total Seats Sold Today: 23

 

Comp

0.680x of Stuber 2 days before release (510K)

1.889x of Racing in Rain (850K)

2.217x of Bernadette (443K)

0.144x of Hustlers (361K)

0.111x of Downton Abbey (233K)

 

These comps are also better, and while not awful, it's still not that great. A Simple Favor got to 16M off 900K previews for comparison.

[Eric the IF]

Midway Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	26	54	4,503	1.20%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 6

Total Seats Added Today: 891

Total Seats Sold Today: 17

 

Comp

0.327x of Angel Has Fallen 2 days before release (490K)

0.319x of Rambo (414K)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.082x of Hobbs & Shaw (476K)

 

[Eric the IF]

Playing with Fire Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	35	33	4,752	0.69%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 5

Total Seats Added Today: 876

Total Seats Sold Today: 6

 

Comp

0.317x of Dora 2 days before release (397K)

0.550x of Abominable (358K)

0.190x of Addams Family (237K)

0.136x of Maleficent (312K)

[frozenheart1993]

38 minutes ago, PKMLover said:

Can I ask you about the buzz for Frozen 2 in Japan currently? Are people there excited about it??

Although I am Japanese, I have been living in China for the last six months. I don't know much about my hometown. In China, F2 looks better for other Hollywood animations ,such as HTTYD3 and TS4

[Eric the IF]

Frozen II Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-16 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	65	530	15,444	3.43%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 112

 

Comp

4.649x of Maleficent 16 days before release (10.69M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.277x of Lion King (6.38M)

 

Like I said, I expected both comps to see a strong increase, and I'd argue it did not disappoint. Again, stuff this early needs to be taken with a grain of salt, as things will equalize in the future. But I'd say it's still doing solid work.

[Eric the IF]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-44 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	164	8,121	28,932	28.07%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 25

 

Again, not much to report, but it is interesting to compare my data with @Porthos. Everybody else's data has been around my seats sold for the last couple days, but Sacramento is still consistently doing 70+, which is pretty interesting. I guess Sacto is overperforming?

[charlie Jatinder]

24 minutes ago, Eric Torrance said:

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-44 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	164	8,121	28,932	28.07%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 25

 

Again, not much to report, but it is interesting to compare my data with @Porthos. Everybody else's data has been around my seats sold for the last couple days, but Sacramento is still consistently doing 70+, which is pretty interesting. I guess Sacto is overperforming?

How many tickets you have brought @Porthos 

[keysersoze123]

I got data only for 335 out of 1491 preview shows at AMC and intial numbers are at 4235/68679. That is not good Having just under 1491 shows is really low. Joker had around 3500 preview shows. Let us see how things go over next week or so and I hope I can get data for all of them.

[charlie Jatinder]

I think, for non-Star Wars & non-MCU films, its all about final week in pre-sales.

[a2k]

39 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

How many tickets you have brought @Porthos 

@Porthos is selling tickets using advanced skills like point-to-point marketing

 

Spoiler

 

[Inceptionzq]

https://deadline.com/2019/11/doctor-sleep-weekend-box-office-opening-stephen-king-emilia-clarke-last-christmas-terminator-1202779022/

 

Quote

This weekend, Warner Bros. in a rare move for its genre product opens Mike Flanagan’s feature adaptation of Stephen King’s 2013 novel and sequel to his 1977 tome The Shining, Doctor Sleep, which is seeing a $25M-$30M start, enough to take the breath out of the James Cameron produced sequel, and No. 1 take.

 

Outside of Doctor Sleep, which is counterprogramming to the larger November marketplace, is more counterprogramming with Universal’s Paul Feig romantic comedy Last Christmas starring Emilia Clarke, Henry Golding and Emma Thompson inspired by the George Michael holiday song which is looking to do mid to high teens at 3,300 theaters, beating Lionsgate/AGC’s $100M Roland Emmerich directed WWII movie Midway which will crash with $15M.