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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

By grim22, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by Porthos,

Really depends on what you're looking for, but usually the most important takeaway for just a casual glance is the comp.  More on that in a bit.   But even that is highly dependent on a movie being either in a similar genre or having a similar pre-sale pattern as folks will buy tickets at different times during a pre-sale window thanks to a very long list of factors.   Add in that movies will have different promotional schedules during their pre-sales (review embargoes, TV ca
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Posted by Cap,

MODERATION:   Hi, everyone. It’s 6 o’clock in the morning. I have not gone to bed yet. And I am tired. And I know it’s going to be a very long weekend. Here is the new rule.   This thread is for numbers and data. Please post your theater updates. Please post your comparable data. And please talk about that comparable data here.    If you wish to do a deep dive on why you think that data might or might not suck, then take it to the respective thread of the movie in ques
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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Doctor Sleep Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total 63 346

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 50 539

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS  SHOWINGS
207 52 4987 4.15% 9 30

 

Showings added: 8

Seats added: 1491

 

Adjusted Zombieland 2 comp: 1.42M

Adjusted Gemini Man comp: 1.7M

IT 2 comp: 1.13M

Doctor Sleep Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total 83 780

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 73 539

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS  SHOWINGS
283 76 5421 5.22% 9 32

 

Showings added: 2

Seats added: 434

 

Zombieland 2 comp: 1.76M

Gemini Man comp: 2.46M

Terminator comp: 2M

Adjusted IT 2 comp: 1.14M

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cdsacken Summer Tentpole

cdsacken

Posted
Posted

 

 

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

There is some spin in that report. Only thing I can think off is most Cinemark sales are happening through Fandango. I believe you can still get points for theater membership and fandango points. Reality is its way behind TLK at major plexes I can see. AMC is twice as big as Cinemark and so impact of underperformance there will hit harder than over performance at Cinemark. But its still early days yet. I am definitely sure there will be ramp up at AMC.

 

Also Cinemark is excellent. Its targeting another 15K+ tickets for the day. I am thinking it will keep selling 60% of previous day for next couple of days and then settle down at around 2-3K per day until final push happens.


Mal 2 did 2.3m previews with 31733 at cinemark. F2 will need 4.5x that number to hit 10m previews(I am thinking even for previews there will be few more children tickets for F2 than Mal 2). It currently at 23315 but there is a long road ahead and its definitely possible to finish at 140K in cinemark by release day.

AMC is an absolute lock to dominate. 1 million alist users and most see the movie with 1+ guests.

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cdsacken Summer Tentpole

cdsacken

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Nova said:

Ticket sales aren’t just being bought for Thursday night because it’s a school night. Taking a look throughout the weekend and even Thanksgiving Weekend shows that it’s doing really solid business during those days. I’m telling you: it’s gonna have a soft Thursday preview, people will freak out but then it will stabilize throughout the weekend and during the Thanksgiving Weekend gain ground. 

200+ OW train all aboard.

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cdsacken Summer Tentpole

cdsacken

Posted
Posted (edited)

I agree I'm calling it early. I think AMC is an absolute lock personally. Lion King crushed it and was average at best. If this movie is as good as I think it is.....wowza gonna be crazy.

Edited by cdsacken
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TLK Blockbuster

TLK

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

I just consolidated preview numbers for all 3 openers as none of them look like breaking out. Sleep wont even do half of what Zombieland did few weeks ago and Midway and Last Christmas numbers are just margin of error !!!!

 

SInce sleep had previews last week and if I am not wrong it sold well, I am expecting 1.8-2m previews including that early access numbers. Other 2 movies wont even hit 1m.

These preview numbers don't look good but I am pretty sure Doctor Sleep's numbers are taking a hit because of early access screening and Last Christmas tickets have been online for only 5 days or so. Both movies should over-perform these presales.

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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Frozen 2 Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total 105 1030

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 139 1695

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS  SHOWINGS
631 165 9539 6.61% 9 55

Frozen 2 Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total 152 1030

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 161 1695

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS  SHOWINGS
782 151 9539 8.20% 9 55

 

Adjusted Lion King comp: 9.87M

 

Barely decreased from yesterday, so the comp turned out better than I thought it would. Nowhere to go but up from here

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Menor the Destroyer Summer Tentpole

Menor the Destroyer

Posted
Posted (edited)

For Black Friday at Cinemark F2 is at 8018/409851 which is quite strong, in just 218 theaters too.

 

For Thanksgiving it's at 8985/524946 again really strong in 259 theaters. But combined these two plus other days are probably only adding  maybe 20% to the total, so I don't think it fully explains the Fandango report.

Edited by Menor
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PKMLover Box Office Gold

PKMLover

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Menor said:

For Black Friday at Cinemark F2 is at 8018/409851 which is quite strong, in just 218 theaters too.

 

For Thanksgiving it's at 8985/524946 again really strong in 259 theaters. But combined these two are probably only adding 

What does this mean?

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Alex SciChannel Box Office Gold

Alex SciChannel

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Doctor Sleep Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total 83 780

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 73 539

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS  SHOWINGS
283 76 5421 5.22% 9 32

 

Showings added: 2

Seats added: 434

 

Zombieland 2 comp: 1.76M

Gemini Man comp: 2.46M

Terminator comp: 2M

Adjusted IT 2 comp: 1.14M

The comps are getting better at least.

Does this include fandango screenings?

Edited by Alex SciChannel
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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted (edited)
33 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

The comps are getting better at least.

Does this include fandango screenings?

I should add, the IT 2 comp was the day when my most popular theater was down. So I had to adjust for that, and with smaller movies, like Doctor Sleep, that theater has a larger share of overall tickets. So, I wouldn’t be surprised if in reality that comp is at least 1.3M.

 

This doesn’t include the Fandango screenings. I posted a few days ago detailing about how I think the range for those is 800K-1M. Probably at the lower end though. But it’s really hard to predict those with the limited data, so take it with an extra grain of salt.

Edited by Inceptionzq
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Old Spice Sleeper Hit

Old Spice

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Variety:

 

Doctor Sleep: $25-30M

Last Christmas: $12-15M

Midway: $13M

Playing with Fire: $7-10M

 

https://variety.com/2019/film/news/box-office-doctor-sleep-last-christmas-opening-weekend-1203395084/

The top three are all languishing in Salt Lake, but they look like EG compared to Playing With Fire which hasn't sold a single ticket yet for tomorrow night's previews. 

 

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filmlover Cinematic Universe

filmlover

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, A Star is Orm said:

The top three are all languishing in Salt Lake, but they look like EG compared to Playing With Fire which hasn't sold a single ticket yet for tomorrow night's previews. 

 

It looks like something that stepped out of the mid-2000s when Cheaper by the Dozen/The Pacifier types of movies were actual multiplex attractions. Why it's a major studio release and not being dumped on Netflix is beyond me.

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Old Spice Sleeper Hit

Old Spice

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, filmlover said:

It looks like something that stepped out of the mid-2000s when Cheaper by the Dozen/The Pacifier types of movies were actual multiplex attractions. Why it's a major studio release and not being dumped on Netflix is beyond me.

Yep.

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Eric Furiosa Global Phenomenon

Eric Furiosa

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, A Star is Orm said:

The top three are all languishing in Salt Lake, but they look like EG compared to Playing With Fire which hasn't sold a single ticket yet for tomorrow night's previews. 

 

Makes sense. That's a movie that parents will probably use to punish their kids rather than enjoy as a family

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