The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

9 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Can you tell us how Regal is doing relative to Cinemark.

Now, see, here's a problem.  Two of the Regals, as I mentioned, are non-reserved seating.  I suspect one of them does well for itself as I occasionally see the rare sellout there.

 

The main problem is, though, two of them are in what I consider the third tier of theaters locally.  Historically they just don't sell very many tickets here.  However, two of them is solidly in the second tier, and the newest one in the region is in the solid A-tier.

 

Century, on the other hand, has a strong brand presence here, going back decades.  Even so, I'd say two of the Centurys are in the A tier, two of them at the top of the B-tier, one of them in the middle of the B-tier, and the last one solidly in the C tier.

 

=====

 

With all of that out of the way:

 

Overall Cinemark just sells more tickets here than Regal.  I'm not going to try to get some sort of master list from all the films I've tracked, but in regards to TROS:

 

Century:          5001 tickets sold out of 9185 (54.45%)

Regal:             2915 tickets sold out of 9398 (31.02%)

Cinema West:  2259 tickets sold out of 4065 (55.57%)

Esquire IMAX:    716 tickets sold out of  752 (95.21%)

SMG:                 490 tickets sold out of  600 (81.67%)

 

Cinemark is accounting for 43.94% of all sales in the region while Regal is 25.6%.

 

(NOTE:  The SMG number will go way up at final report, as they always lag in adding screen times until much closer to the end)

[Menor the Destroyer]

29 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

 

 

This is what I would expect from the Cinemark data, but not necessarily from the AMC data.

[Legion Again]

1 hour ago, Inceptionzq said:

 

 

What the absolute fuck!?!?!?!?   

 

Over TLK's first week!? It was only 5 months ago that that opened to 190M.

[Legion Again]

This just doesn't match with what we've been seeing for Thursday. Until I hear an argument otherwise I'm assuming that F2's fans just don't see a huge need to see it in the first couple hours possible, and it may turn in some (relatively) medium previews but with a very strong IM and days 4-10.

[keysersoze123]

There is some spin in that report. Only thing I can think off is most Cinemark sales are happening through Fandango. I believe you can still get points for theater membership and fandango points. Reality is its way behind TLK at major plexes I can see. AMC is twice as big as Cinemark and so impact of underperformance there will hit harder than over performance at Cinemark. But its still early days yet. I am definitely sure there will be ramp up at AMC.

 

Also Cinemark is excellent. Its targeting another 15K+ tickets for the day. I am thinking it will keep selling 60% of previous day for next couple of days and then settle down at around 2-3K per day until final push happens.

Mal 2 did 2.3m previews with 31733 at cinemark. F2 will need 4.5x that number to hit 10m previews(I am thinking even for previews there will be few more children tickets for F2 than Mal 2). It currently at 23315 but there is a long road ahead and its definitely possible to finish at 140K in cinemark by release day.

[Inceptionzq]

12 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

What the absolute fuck!?!?!?!?   

 

Over TLK's first week!? It was only 5 months ago that that opened to 190M.

It’s mind boggling. But I’m thinking that Toy Story 4 being out for only a couple days, and FFH right around the corner could’ve taken attention away from TLK. Frozen 2 has no obstacles that will draw attention away from it.

6 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

This just doesn't match with what we've been seeing for Thursday. Until I hear an argument otherwise I'm assuming that F2's fans just don't see a huge need to see it in the first couple hours possible, and it may turn in some (relatively) medium previews but with a very strong IM and days 4-10.

Yeah I think the IM will be very strong. I did a quick check of the Saturday fan events, and there’s 352 sold between 3 theaters. Over half of Thursday’s overall sales as of yesterday. Haven’t bothered to check how all of Friday and Saturday is doing, but I may do that to see if it’s blowing previews out of the water here too.

Edited November 6, 2019 by Inceptionzq

[Barnack]

12 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

What the absolute fuck!?!?!?!?   

 

Over TLK's first week!? It was only 5 months ago that that opened to 190M.

 

That should put a nail in the Female driven affair do not have big ticket pre-sale rush narrative.... (if the long list of previous case didn't)

[Nova]

7 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

This just doesn't match with what we've been seeing for Thursday. Until I hear an argument otherwise I'm assuming that F2's fans just don't see a huge need to see it in the first couple hours possible, and it may turn in some (relatively) medium previews but with a very strong IM and days 4-10.

Ticket sales aren’t just being bought for Thursday night because it’s a school night. Taking a look throughout the weekend and even Thanksgiving Weekend shows that it’s doing really solid business during those days. I’m telling you: it’s gonna have a soft Thursday preview, people will freak out but then it will stabilize throughout the weekend and during the Thanksgiving Weekend gain ground. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

12 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

This just doesn't match with what we've been seeing for Thursday. Until I hear an argument otherwise I'm assuming that F2's fans just don't see a huge need to see it in the first couple hours possible, and it may turn in some (relatively) medium previews but with a very strong IM and days 4-10.

That's because it's selling like crazy on Friday, Saturday, and presumably beyond. By T-10 Saturday will likely be 30-40% ahead of TLK at Cinemark.

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, Nova said:

I don’t see any of the openers hitting those supposed tracking numbers tbh 

I think Midway could get the $15M...if only for the cheap tickets and the Vet's Day holiday drawing to a military movie...

[Legion Again]

21 minutes ago, Nova said:

Ticket sales aren’t just being bought for Thursday night because it’s a school night. Taking a look throughout the weekend and even Thanksgiving Weekend shows that it’s doing really solid business during those days. I’m telling you: it’s gonna have a soft Thursday preview, people will freak out but then it will stabilize throughout the weekend and during the Thanksgiving Weekend gain ground.

It's a great point that I somehow hadn't noticed before that this will actually be a schoolnight thursday, vs I2, TS4, and TLK which were not. It's super great to have people doing detailed efforts on previews, but for this movie in particular I think I'll be paying a lot of attention to Fri and Sat from the scrapers.

[Eric the IF]

I don't know if this was said, but one thing that Frozen II has as an advantage when it comes to presales is that Thanksgiving weekend is the following weekend, so there's probably a good amount of people buying tickets a week or so out. Obviously Thanksgiving and Christmas are very different, but TFA had Christmas as the second or third-biggest day when it came to presales IIRC.

 

It's definitely more than something like Toy Story and Lion King which didn't really have a super promient holiday on its second weekend (yes I know TS4 was like a week or two before 4th of July)

[frozenheart1993]

 

Is this news source high in authenticity?

[keysersoze123]

Quote

Doctor Sleep
AMC - 9025/142333( 769 shows) 128251.35  
Cin - 3871/149939(891 shows)  $44816

Midway
AMC - 4411/75219(539 shows) 63565.24
Cin - 3094/95287(732 shows) $37141  

Last Christmas
AMC - 2957/62734(494 shows) $38930  
Cin - 2113/72027(579 shows) $23299

I just consolidated preview numbers for all 3 openers as none of them look like breaking out. Sleep wont even do half of what Zombieland did few weeks ago and Midway and Last Christmas numbers are just margin of error !!!!

 

SInce sleep had previews last week and if I am not wrong it sold well, I am expecting 1.8-2m previews including that early access numbers. Other 2 movies wont even hit 1m.

[filmlover]

Another flop incoming for Roland Emmerich, unsurprisingly. Honestly still surprises me he was able to lure in such a good cast for this considering it's been a decade since he last made a movie anyone cared about. At least the checks were nice I hope.

[Menor the Destroyer]

30 minutes ago, Eric Torrance said:

I don't know if this was said, but one thing that Frozen II has as an advantage when it comes to presales is that Thanksgiving weekend is the following weekend, so there's probably a good amount of people buying tickets a week or so out. Obviously Thanksgiving and Christmas are very different, but TFA had Christmas as the second or third-biggest day when it came to presales IIRC.

 

It's definitely more than something like Toy Story and Lion King which didn't really have a super promient holiday on its second weekend (yes I know TS4 was like a week or two before 4th of July)

Yeah I'm running this rn. It's nowhere near as extreme as second biggest day or anything like that but Thanksgiving and Black Friday are doing strong business.

[TalismanRing]

NYC Local - so little movement inThur Previews all week

 

Midway	20/512	(4pm)	23/512	(4pm)	22/512	(4:30pm)
Dr Sleep	23/510	(4pm)	28/510	(4pm)	28/510	(4:30pm)
Last Christmas	12/496	(4pm)	12/496	(4pm)	12/496	(4:30pm)
Playing With Fire	15/654	(4pm)	15/654	(4pm)	15/654	(4:30pm)

 

FUTURE comps

 

For next Thur - Charlies Angels has sold 18 (3 showings). FvF has sold 41 and the 60th Anniversary for The Twilight Zone - 68 (one showing)

 

FRIDAY showings

 

DS: 68 (4 RPX + 3 2D showings)
LC: 68 (5 2D)
Midway: 40 (4 2D)
PWF: 37  (5 2D)
 

[narniadis]

As always thanks to the Data miners!! Will be grateful to see this play out and be big - long term instead of frontloaded. 

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1527

3153

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1588

3926

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
7456	52	22870	32.60%	9	182

 

Over 98% of The Lion King's final total.

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1529

3153

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1590

3926

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
7512	56	22870	32.85%	9	182

 

99% of The Lion King's final total

 

(Thanks for buying half of these tickets last night, @Porthos 😉)

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1529

3153

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1590

3926

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
7512	56	22870	32.85%	9	182

 

99% of The Lion King's final total

 

(Thanks for buying half of these tickets last night, @Porthos 😉)