The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[FlashMaster659]

6 minutes ago, BigMarkMan said:

How about the pre-sale of Frozen 2 and Toy Story 4……

Didn't track TS4 in the Inland Empire region

[fabiopazzo2]

1 hour ago, frozenheart1993 said:

I think 70~90m is more reasonable.

What?? 70M?? No way 

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, PKMLover said:

@Porthos so how much money can we expect for F2 in the OW? 

Guessing/projecting OW's really isn't my forte, I'm afraid, so I'll leave that to others.  And even if it were, probably want a few more pre-sale days to really have an idea.

 

Like, just based on its first couple of days, I would have been certain that TS4 would have cleared 150 OW at a minimum.  

 

That... Didn't happen, as one might remember.   So forecasting an OW off of one day is not something I would want to do even if I were good at it.  Which, as I said, I'm really not.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

Usually I wait a few days after a movie starts pre-sales before bringing it back in to the system.  Mostly because the day-to-day comparisons will be whack, as you imply.  I haven't settled on an exact day yet, but I'll probably bring it back in around T-18 or so.  Maybe T-20.  Depend on my mood at the time, mostly.

Naah, I was generally asking how will that look, Endgame, say 2 days of PS, vs TROS till now, until they both meet at common day.

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

@Menor Any way for you to access Pulse numbers of TS4 as you used to extrapolate and compare with Cinemark extrapolated data of F2. 

 

How is F2 looking anyways.

I tried but it's a bit difficult as Pulse was affected by so many factors like competition and day out the week. 

[jedijake]

5 hours ago, frozenheart1993 said:

I think 70~90m is more reasonable.

That sounds like what it could make through Saturday or halfway through Saturday. $50 million is probably ballpark for its first day alone.

[TwoMisfits]

I'm torn on Frozen 2 for the moment...very late presale start was an odd decision.  Very small theater sets (for a Disney blockbuster) at the presale open is also concerning, as is the overall movie market this month - there may be little room to expand the early sets enormously.  Opening on a weekend that is becoming known for movies underdelivering at open (although the movies on this weekend did leg out well).  And wondering if this breaks into all 4 quadrants more strongly, or if it plays like a heavily female-drawing princess movie.  

 

If asked, I'd probably peg the movie between TS4 and TLK's open, which is a huge range, so I might just pick a number and say $133M:).  If Deadline needs a number after they quote $200M this week.

 

 

Edited November 5, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[cdsacken]

TLK did amazing numbers OW despite being a mediocre film. If Frozen 2 is legit it will have a much a stronger multiplier and much better legs.

 

OW is so hard to factor in. Box office will have been crap for a long time until it comes out. Reviews and reception matter. I think it will have awesome legs.

 

Edited November 5, 2019 by cdsacken

[Menor the Destroyer]

It is unlikely to get TLK's previews. But if sales keep going strong I can see it beating TLK FSS.

[cdsacken]

6 minutes ago, Menor said:

It is unlikely to get TLK's previews. But if sales keep going strong I can see it beating TLK FSS.

Agreed and it could have way better legs.

[frozenheart1993]

6 minutes ago, Menor said:

It is unlikely to get TLK's previews. But if sales keep going strong I can see it beating TLK FSS.

sorry,What does TLK FSS mean?

[cdsacken]

5 hours ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

What?? 70M?? No way 

For opening day. Seems reasonable 😁

[Inceptionzq]

15 minutes ago, frozenheart1993 said:

sorry,What does TLK FSS mean?

The Lion King’s opening Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

[frozenheart1993]

2 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Lion King’s opening Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

thanks

[keysersoze123]

As I said earlier minus cinemark its not even at blockbuster level. So New York has not done well which is so weird for a blockbuster. Philidelphia behaves similar to New York.

 

So saying this will beat TLK is ridiculous at this point. Let us wait and watch. is only 16 days to release and so things have to move fast.

[Menor the Destroyer]

44 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

As I said earlier minus cinemark its not even at blockbuster level. So New York has not done well which is so weird for a blockbuster. Philidelphia behaves similar to New York.

 

So saying this will beat TLK is ridiculous at this point. Let us wait and watch. is only 16 days to release and so things have to move fast.

I looked through Cinemark data at the theater level. It varies hugely by region and even theater. Some places is 3x TLK while in others it's not even 1/5. 

[John Marston]

Why would Frozen 2 beat Lion King? There’s your problem right there. 

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Why would Frozen 2 beat Lion King? There’s your problem right there. 

thats the wrong question here, why wouldnt beat, there is no explanition, it could very well do it or not do it,

[narniadis]

32 minutes ago, john2000 said:

thats the wrong question here, why wouldnt beat, there is no explanition, it could very well do it or not do it,

No the expectation or even hope of it topping Lion King is only setting some of yall up for big disappointment. There is no reason to open as large as Lion King, especially when Incredibles 2 - which definitely skewed more male tha  Frozen will also didnt hit the 190m area. 

 

This is Toy Story 4 all over again where those of us asking yall to chill the big numbers are going to be ignored and then deal with the whining after it opens normally for the time frame and type of film. Anything over 150m is EXCEPTIONAL not just great. Will more than likely play more akin to Twilight on opening weekend and be closer to the 130-140 area. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

Frozen 2 Presales (T-17)

 

Thursday: 

Theaters: 271

Showings: 2388

Tickets Sold: 18392

Tickets Sold (adj): 17596 (41% of the Lion King at T-10 at the exact same theaters)

Estimated Sales: 235878

Estimated Nationwide Sales: 1.4 million

 

Friday: 

Theaters: 273

Showings: 4318

Tickets Sold: 26072

Tickets Sold (adj): 24878 (64% of the Lion King at T-10 at the exact same theaters)

Estimated Sales: 290714

Estimated Nationwide Sales: 1.7 million

 

Saturday:

Theaters: 273

Showings: 4349

Tickets Sold: 31649

Tickets Sold (adj): 30199 (90%!!! of the Lion King at T-10 at the exact same theaters)

Estimated Sales: 315997

Estimated Nationwide Sales: 1.9 million

 

Again, I'm not saying this will beat the Lion King. It's one day of sales, things could slow down, etc. But I don't understand what's wrong with at least considering the possibility after a day like this. I was one of the naysayers on TS4, because the numbers never supported anything close to 200 million, and if F2 slows down I'll become a naysayer again. But there is no way to describe this as anything but a fantastic start.

 

I am sympathetic to those who are calling to chill with the big predictions, just from the hype I've felt and seen I would find it hard to see it going over 140 million. But the numbers say what they say, and F2 is a movie targeted at a demographic that is pretty underrepresented on this site.

 

Edited November 5, 2019 by Menor