The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

Cruella Southern Tier Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days and COUNTING

 

Theater

Movie

Showtimes

Seats Sold

Seats Available

%

Total Overall

Cruella

9

10

312

3.21%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: -3

 

Not great to say the least. I think yesterday was an error on my part though, due to not understanding where the DBOX seats were in the Cinemark theater I track. Still best case scenario it sold 0 seats over the past day.

Edited May 25, 2021 by Jayhawk the Hutt

[titanic2187]

7 hours ago, Borobudur said:

The tracking thus far, including yours, even if we filter out some overindex element locally, suggest that 4m-4.5m is the range for Thursday preview. If AQP2 managed to generate 11x (POTC5's IM), this would put 3 days weekend number rivaling the 1st AQP's opening. Is that worth a club? 

Actually I have it at 50m 3days including preview. I mean, there are too many improvements since GvK that I cannot ignore such as higher capacity , higher theater count, higher vaccination rate, lower cases and death. And not to mention AQP2 is an theater exclusive with more positive review than GvK,

 

And before pandemic shutdown, AQP2 was tracking 55m-70m. Those were not blind forecast months before the debut. They were based on buzz created by real marketing push and pre-sale. So this is the goal that people should aim for. Although no way 55m-70m is attainable given current circumstances,, it is still crucial to see how close we can up against the pre-covid tracking.          

[el sid]

The Conjuring 3, counted today at 11am EST:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 66 (4 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 26 (4 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 8 (4 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 4 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 12 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 20 (3 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 130 (3 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters till today for June 4: 266.
Up 10% from yesterday. AQP II had last Tuesday 402 sold tickets.
Not the number I hoped for but pretty irrelevant as long as it improves next week.

AQP II, previews on Thursday, counted today at 11am EST:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 182 (12 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 97 (11 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 26 (9 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): still no showtimes on that day
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 37 (5 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 201 (10 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 360 (22 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters till today for May 27: 903.

Up 21% since yesterday. AQP II is now at 35.5% of the number that It 2 had on Wednesday of its release week. So AQP II has 1 day left and with a jump till tomorrow of 15% (more is welcome) it would be at over 40% of It 2 (+ the 4-day-weekend). It 2 had a jump of 30% in 2 days (Mon-Wed).
The Invisible Man (28.2M OW) had also on Wednesday 625 sold tickets.
I still fear that the walk-ups won't be the same (and therefore I will be happy with 35M+ over 3days including previews) but from pre-sales it looks really ok now.

[titanic2187]

21 minutes ago, el sid said:

The Conjuring 3, counted today at 11am EST:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 66 (4 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 26 (4 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 8 (4 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 4 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 12 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 20 (3 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 130 (3 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters till today for June 4: 266.
Up 10% from yesterday. AQP II had last Tuesday 402 sold tickets.
Not the number I hoped for but pretty irrelevant as long as it improves next week.

AQP II, previews on Thursday, counted today at 11am EST:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 182 (12 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 97 (11 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 26 (9 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): still no showtimes on that day
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 37 (5 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 201 (10 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 360 (22 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters till today for May 27: 903.

Up 21% since yesterday. AQP II is now at 35.5% of the number that It 2 had on Wednesday of its release week. So AQP II has 1 day left and with a jump till tomorrow of 15% (more is welcome) it would be at over 40% of It 2 (+ the 4-day-weekend). It 2 had a jump of 30% in 2 days (Mon-Wed).
The Invisible Man (28.2M OW) had also on Wednesday 625 sold tickets.
I still fear that the walk-ups won't be the same (and therefore I will be happy with 35M+ over 3days including previews) but from pre-sales it looks really ok now.

May I know why you are comparing presale today to IT2's wednesday? Shouldn't it be Tuesday to have number more comparable?  

[lorddemaxus]

1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

And before pandemic shutdown, AQP2 was tracking 55m-70m. Those were not blind forecast months before the debut. They were based on buzz created by real marketing push and pre-sale. So this is the goal that people should aim for. Although no way 55m-70m is attainable given current circumstances,, it is still crucial to see how close we can up against the pre-covid tracking.          

Online buzz doesn't really match up with actual boxoffice numbers. Whatever it makes right now I feel is about what it would've made pre-pandemic.

[WrathOfHan]

Update for Tallahassee (last update was Friday):

 

A Quiet Place Part II:

5:00: 14/107 (+9)

5:30 IMAX: 2/372 (+2)

7:00 Dolby: 57/236 (+21)

8:00: 17/107 (+14)

9:00 IMAX: 16/372 (+12)

Total: 106/1,194 (+120%)

 

Cruella:

6:00: 9/107 (+7)

7:15: 4/107 (-)

9:15: 8/107 (+4)

Total: 21/321 (+133%)

 

Both films are starting to pick up sales, especially A Quiet Place. Cruella is still looking a bit iffy for an older skewing Disney film.

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

@Menor shit I forget you. Can you look into AQP2 and Cruella MTC2.

Not before they open. My script still has issues. 

[el sid]

1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

May I know why you are comparing presale today to IT2's wednesday? Shouldn't it be Tuesday to have number more comparable?  

Of course that's true. I just have no Tuesday number because I was too lazy to count on that day .
For both movies I counted the presales (= the sold tickets of the Thursday shows) and because of the lack of the Tuesday number for It2 I took its Wednesday number instead = the number of sold tickets for Thursday that It2 had on Wednesday.  
Another reason is that before Covid the cheap Tuesday made the advanced sales slower and the jumps came after Tuesday, so I often counted on Monday and then again on Wednesday.

[Porthos]

10 hours ago, Porthos said:

Placer County, which I partially track, will almost certainly shift soon. If Placer County gets the clear tomorrow/later today, as I think is likely, then sure, the actual OW will likely get a boost for those theaters. Whether theaters would be allowed to shift in time for Thursday previews, I'm less certain about.  

Placer County did indeed get the go-ahead for orange tier status ("moderate") and as such can have 50% seating/200 seats caps.  It will absolutely be in effect for the actual OW and I'll keep an eye out to see if theaters flip the switch in time for Thr Previews.

 

It'll only affect three of the theaters I track (it would be four, but Regal decided to push back one of their theater's re-opening to June), but every little bit helps.

 

Sacto, meanwhile, got its first week of credit for moving to a lower tier and should move next week.  And, of course, Cali is planning on nuking tiers entirely on June 15th.

[Inceptionzq]

On 5/24/2021 at 3:05 PM, Inceptionzq said:

A Quiet Place 2 Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

187

1594

11.73%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

133

1415

9.40%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
785	186	15080	5.21%	15	86
$150 PWPs:	5
$200 PWPs:	1
$250 PWPs:	1
$300 PWPs:	2
Total	9

 

Showings added: 7

Seats added: 475

 

GvK comp: 2.7M

Invisible Man comp: 9.94M

IT 2 comp: 4.55M

 

Invisible Man probably isn't gonna be a good comp until the day of 😂 But really good acceleration these past few days. Hopefully it can continue to ramp up more and more these last few days.

A Quiet Place 2 Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

215

1594

13.49%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

149

2046

7.28%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
942	176	15243	6.18%	15	104
$150 PWPs:	6
$200 PWPs:	1
$250 PWPs:	1
$300 PWPs:	2
Total	10

 

Showings removed: 2

Sold seats removed: 19

Seats removed: 857

Showings added: 18

Net Seats added: 163

 

GvK comp: 2.69M

Invisible Man comp: 9.59M

IT 2 comp: 4.42M

Edited May 25, 2021 by Inceptionzq

[Inceptionzq]

On 5/24/2021 at 3:21 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Cruella Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

33

654

5.05%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

67

664

10.09%

 

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
224	33	7141	3.14%	15	54
$150 PWPs:	5
$200 PWPs:	1
$250 PWPs:	1
$300 PWPs:	2
Total	9

 

Showings added: 6

Seats added: 291

 

Maleficent comp: 1.46M

Cruella Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

39

654

5.96%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

72

1178

6.11%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
245	21	8174	3.00%	15	69
$150 PWPs:	6
$200 PWPs:	1
$250 PWPs:	1
$300 PWPs:	2
Total	10

 

Showings added: 15

Seats added: 1033

 

Maleficent comp: 1.31M

[WrathOfHan]

Full showtimes are up for Thursday. AQP now has a showing every 15-30 minutes while Cruella got two extra shows (new showings in italics):

 

A Quiet Place Part II:

5:00: 14/107 (-)

5:15: 0/67

5:30 IMAX: 3/372 (+1)

5:45: 0/67

6:00: 0/77

6:30: 0/107

7:00 Dolby: 63/236 (+6)

7:15: 0/70

7:30: 0/77

8:00: 20/107 (+3)

8:15: 0/67

8:30: 0/70

8:45: 0/67

9:00 IMAX: 16/372 (-)

9:30: 0/107

10:00 Dolby: 0/236

Total: 116/2,206 (+10/+1,012) (9% increase in tickets from earlier)

 

Cruella:

6:00: 9/107 (-)

6:45: 0/54

7:15: 4/107 (-)

7:45: 0/50

9:15: 8/107 (-)

Total: 21/425 (-/+104)

[WrathOfHan]

On 5/21/2021 at 12:24 PM, WrathOfHan said:

Fatima, Together Together, Top Gun, and Scott Pilgrim vs the World are gone.

 

Dream Horse: 3 (Above Average)

Final Account: 3 (Average)

Scoob!: 2 (Smallest)

 

Spiral: From the Book of Saw: 11 (IMAX, Dolby, Largest, Average, and Smallest x0.5)

Private Rentals: 4 (Above Average and Below Average)

Demon Slayer The Movie: Mugen Train: 3 (2 Sub, 1 Dub; Largest)

Mortal Kombat: 3 (Smallest)

Profile: 3 (Below Average)

Raya and the Last Dragon: 3 (Average)

Those Who Wish Me Dead: 3 (Largest)

Wrath of Man: 3 (Largest and Smallest x0.5)

Finding You: 2 (Smallest)

Godzilla vs Kong: 2 (Average)

Here Today: 2 (Smallest)

The Water Man: 2 (Smallest x0.5)

Separation: 1 (Smallest x0.5)

 

Weekend hours are down to an earlier close at 9, but weekday hours are still 5-8. Given how AQP and Cruella are tracking, I don't see that changing next week; Memorial Day hours are currently even worse at 6-8.

 

Finding You, Here Today, Profile, Separation, and The Water Man are gone.

 

A Quiet Place Part II: 18 (IMAX, Dolby, Largest x2, and Average)

Cruella: 15 (Largest x2, Above Average x2, and Average)

 

Private Rentals: 5 (Below Average x2)

Demon Slayer The Movie: Mugen Train: 4 (2 Sub/2 Dub; Smallest)

Raya and the Last Dragon: 4 (Average)

Spiral: From the Book of Saw: 4 (Average)

Those Who Wish Me Dead: 4 (Smallest)

Dream Horse: 3 (Smallest x0.75)

Godzilla vs Kong: 3 (Smallest x0.75)

Mortal Kombat: 3 (Smallest)

Wrath of Man: 3 (Smallest)

Final Account: 1 (Smallest x0.25)

Scoob!: 1 (Smallest x0.25)

[Eric Quinn]

23 hours ago, Eric De Vil said:

A Quiet Place Part II Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting (Thu+Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	197	1694	18091	9.36%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 9

Total Seats Added Today: 436

Total Seats Sold Today: 416

 

Comp

0.785x of Godzilla vs. Kong Saturday Before Release (7.62M)

1.120x of Mortal Kombat Monday Before Release (10.18M)

 

So just to clarify, the "Monday Before Release" for both comps is just the T-4 comp from yesterday. I'm just course-correcting some stuff since these movies didn't have Thursday previews, and trying to shift everything back by a day is much more cumbersome when you have to account for 4+ days before release. Either way, still seems like a pretty good day that's boding well for a good opening, but anything could happen. Better to be a touch pessimistic even when things are going in a certain optimistic favor.

A Quiet Place Part II Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting (Thu+Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	306	2566	25368	10.12%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 109

Total Seats Added Today: 7,277

Total Seats Sold Today: 872

 

Comp

0.981x of Godzilla vs. Kong Sunday Before Release (9.52M)

1.395x of Mortal Kombat Tuesday Before Release (12.68M)

 

Bah gawd. That's all I gotta say

[charlie Jatinder]

Thursday alone @Eric De Vil for AQP 2. 🙏

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, Eric De Vil said:

A Quiet Place Part II Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting (Thu+Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	306	2566	25368	10.12%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 109

Total Seats Added Today: 7,277

Total Seats Sold Today: 872

 

Comp

0.981x of Godzilla vs. Kong Sunday Before Release (9.52M)

1.395x of Mortal Kombat Tuesday Before Release (12.68M)

 

Bah gawd. That's all I gotta say

 

(•_•)
<) )╯ TOMATO LAW
/ \
(•_•)
\( (> NEVER
/ \
(•_•)
<) )╯ FAILS
/ \

Edited May 26, 2021 by Porthos

[charlie Jatinder]

I assume 4-5M Thursday for AQP2 is likely. $45-55M 4 days 

 

AQP2 was supposed to be back loaded, and it did end up being so.

Edited May 26, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Eric Quinn]

23 hours ago, Eric De Vil said:

Cruella Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting (Thu+Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	141	505	12676	3.98%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 11

Total Seats Added Today: 471

Total Seats Sold Today: 101

 

Comp

4.008x of Raya T-3 Before Release (10.43M)

 

Comp (minus Cruella Sellouts)

3.000x of Raya T-3 Before Release (7.81M)

 

So...this is complicated. Raya underperformed hard around me (granted bc theater count was small and a few initial sellouts just...disappeared by the end of tracking), so that makes things really hard to do a fair comparison. This is doubly so, because Cruella seems like an overperformer. Even taking out the sellouts, it's still at about 378 tickets sold, which seems a lot better than what little other tracking this movie has. But of course, the other guys are just looking at Thursday by their own (I'm too tired to figure out and look at Thursday numbers are at this point), and hey, maybe Cruella is skewing more towards families than we might think. Think somebody here said the movie was doing really well on Saturday in the theaters around here.

 

The bottom line is that these comps seem generous towards the movie at this point, but with so little data to grasp, and what little there is seems a touch finnicky, it's a real "who knows?" kind of deal for me at this point. At the very least, it is nice to actually have a comp for once.

 

Cruella Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting (Thu+Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	211	542	17476	3.10%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 70

Total Seats Added Today: 4,800

Total Sellouts Removed Today: 1

Total Seats Sold Today: 37

 

Comp

1.667x of Raya T-2 Before Release (4.34M)

 

Yeah, so one of the sellouts just...disappeared. This has happened a couple times since I restarted reporting. Raya even went through it the last day of reporting. I don't know if it's a glitch or a confusion with private showings or something, but it's always a frustrating thing whenever this stuff happens. Either way, even when you ignore the sellout, there was still only 117 tickets sold today. Pretty bad today if you ask me, but there's still two more days of ticket selling to come, so who knows?

[Eric Quinn]

23 hours ago, Eric De Vil said:

The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-11 and Counting (Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	38	138	3837	3.60%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 36

 

After so little activity, the last two days have been surprisingly good. Part of it is just that horror ticket sales are more backloaded, but it is kind of interesting. Maybe it's horror fans getting tickets just after buying some for Quiet Place? Maybe the publicity for AQP and Cruella is making people more excited to buy tickets here in Philly? Or maybe it's all just coincidental with no real hook. Either way, it's nice to see.

The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-10 and Counting (Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	38	219	3837	5.71%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today: 2

Total Seats Sold Today: 81

 

Or at least, I hope these are genuine sellouts. WHO KNOWS

[Eric Quinn]

13 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Thursday alone @Eric De Vil for AQP 2. 🙏

I'm sorry, but I don't have the time to do this. Work has been super hard this past week, and I'm expected to be at work an hour early today. I'm only getting 4.5 hours of sleep tonight. I have to look over my data once again and check my sites again just to make sure I get Thursday alone.

 

You're getting enough data for Thursday only by other people. Please stop asking me, because it's just not possible for me at this point in time.