The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Borobudur]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Last I checked less than 550 PWP between 2 MTC. That to me is not enough to make any dent to BO. I expect majority to be for AQP but not all.

 

15m looks tough. Would need way stronger walk ups than what I saw today. Probably 12-13m true friday and small increase on saturday and then small drop on sunday/slightly bigger drop on Monday.  

If this is your thought, how can this make 60m 4 days then? 

[charlie Jatinder]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

15m looks tough. Would need way stronger walk ups than what I saw today. Probably 12-13m true friday and small increase on saturday and then small drop on sunday/slightly bigger drop on Monday.  

Yeah totally but Midnight PSm was 2.4x Approx. Fridays have better PSm easily. I wont be surprised with 13-14 tho.

[keysersoze123]

56 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

If this is your thought, how can this make 60m 4 days then? 

it was not exact number but a ballpark estimates. With 13m true friday, somewhere in high 50's is more likely. 5.5/13/15/14/10 kind of OW. Let us get data for previews and it would be easier to extrapolate. 

[Eric Prime]

On 5/27/2021 at 12:41 AM, Eric De Vil said:

A Quiet Place Part II Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting (Thu+Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	334	3522	26635	13.22%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 28

Total Seats Added Today: 1,267

Total Seats Sold Today: 956

 

Comp

1.211x of Godzilla vs. Kong Monday Before Release (11.75M)

1.500x of Mortal Kombat Wednesday Before Release (13.63M)

 

Bah gawd once again

A Quiet Place Part II Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count (Thu+Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	4	334	5179	26635	19.44%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today: 2

Total Seats Sold Today: 1,657

 

Comp

1.336x of Godzilla vs. Kong's Final Count (12.97M)

1.569x of Mortal Kombat's Final Count (14.27M)

 

So yeah, very good final day to close things off. And hey, this Total Friday # seems to match up with what people are saying. That's cool!

[Eric Prime]

On 5/27/2021 at 12:49 AM, Eric De Vil said:

Cruella Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting (Thu+Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	221	798	17953	4.44%

Total Shows Added Today: 10

Total Seats Added Today: 477

Total Seats Sold Today: 256

 

Comp

1.851x of Raya T-1 Before Release (4.82M)

 

This was pretty good stuff too, though it still has a bit of a ways to go. We'll see how tomorrow shapes up.

Cruella Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count (Thu+Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	221	1273	17953	7.09%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 475

 

Comp

2.129x of Raya's Final Count (5.54M)

 

I hoped this would at least double Raya, and it did. Ultimately it does seem like it's going for high teens for the 3-day though, so that's not especially great.

[Eric Prime]

On 5/27/2021 at 12:52 AM, Eric De Vil said:

The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-9 and Counting (Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	38	271	3837	7.06%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 52

 

I screwed up the sellout count yesterday. Sorry! Fixed accordingly.

The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-8 and Counting (Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	38	318	3837	8.29%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 47

[Eric Prime]

And just to end things off, here's what I have for solo Thursday.

 

AQP2: 1,967 tickets. 0.507x of GvK (4.92M), 0.596x of MK (5.42M)

 

Cruella: 409 tickets.

[WrathOfHan]

Friday morning update; AQP got two extra screens :

 

A Quiet Place Part II:

12:00 Dolby: 9/236 (+5)

12:15: 0/54

12:30: 3/107 (+3)

1:00 IMAX: 4/372 (-)

1:30: 0/50

2:00: 7/107 (+4)

2:30: 5/70 (+3)

3:00 Dolby: 28/236 (+4)

3:15: 0/54

3:30: 5/107 (+3)

4:00 IMAX: 7/372 (+3)

4:30: 0/50

5:00: 0/107 (-)

5:30: 7/70 (+2)

6:00 Dolby: 38/236 (+9)

6:30: 11/107 (+2)

6:45: 6/40 (+6)

7:00 IMAX: 25/372 (+17)

7:30: 7/50

8:00: 28/107 (+14)

8:30: 7/70 (+7)

8:45: 7/40 (+7)

9:00 Dolby: 66/236 (+13)

9:30: 6/107 (+6)

9:45: 2/40 (+2)

10:00 IMAX: 13/372 (+2)

Total: 291/3,769 (+119/258) (69% increase in sales)

 

Cruella:

12:15: 15/77 (+2)

12:45: 0/107 (-)

1:15: 3/40 (+2)

1:45: 0/77 (-)

2:15: 1/67 (+1)

2:45: 5/107 (+4)

3:45: 4/77 (-)

4:15: 10/107 (-)

5:15: 4/77 (+2)

5:45: 5/67 (+5)

6:15: 13/107 (+2)

6:45: 2/40 (-)

7:15: 5/77 (+3)

7:30: 22/107 (-)

8:45: 0/77 (-)

9:15: 0/67 (-)

9:45: 18/107 (+3)

Total: 107/1,385 (+24) (29% increase)

[Borobudur]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Friday morning update; AQP got two extra screens :

 

A Quiet Place Part II:

12:00 Dolby: 9/236 (+5)

12:15: 0/54

12:30: 3/107 (+3)

1:00 IMAX: 4/372 (-)

1:30: 0/50

2:00: 7/107 (+4)

2:30: 5/70 (+3)

3:00 Dolby: 28/236 (+4)

3:15: 0/54

3:30: 5/107 (+3)

4:00 IMAX: 7/372 (+3)

4:30: 0/50

5:00: 0/107 (-)

5:30: 7/70 (+2)

6:00 Dolby: 38/236 (+9)

6:30: 11/107 (+2)

6:45: 6/40 (+6)

7:00 IMAX: 25/372 (+17)

7:30: 7/50

8:00: 28/107 (+14)

8:30: 7/70 (+7)

8:45: 7/40 (+7)

9:00 Dolby: 66/236 (+13)

9:30: 6/107 (+6)

9:45: 2/40 (+2)

10:00 IMAX: 13/372 (+2)

Total: 291/3,769 (+119/258) (69% increase in sales)

 

Cruella:

12:15: 15/77 (+2)

12:45: 0/107 (-)

1:15: 3/40 (+2)

1:45: 0/77 (-)

2:15: 1/67 (+1)

2:45: 5/107 (+4)

3:45: 4/77 (-)

4:15: 10/107 (-)

5:15: 4/77 (+2)

5:45: 5/67 (+5)

6:15: 13/107 (+2)

6:45: 2/40 (-)

7:15: 5/77 (+3)

7:30: 22/107 (-)

8:45: 0/77 (-)

9:15: 0/67 (-)

9:45: 18/107 (+3)

Total: 107/1,385 (+24) (29% increase)

Was walk-up good last night? Or is this any good? Also, how we actually define walk-ups? Nowadays people buy ticket online most likely . 

[john2000]

https://deadline.com/2021/05/a-quiet-place-part-ii-cruella-memorial-day-weekend-box-office-1234766021/

 

 

‘A Quiet Place Part II’ Loud On Thursday Night With $4.8M Previews, ‘Cruella’ Sees $1.4M

[Cooper Legion]

15 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Cruella Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

76

1090

6.97%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

146

1178

12.39%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 27 HOURS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
678	375	9099	7.45%	15	86
$150 PWPs:	6
$200 PWPs:	1
$250 PWPs:	1
$300 PWPs:	3
Total	11

 

Showings added: 2

Seats added: 111

 

Maleficent comp: 1.67M

 

So as I expected, it didn't triple from yesterday. But it did do really well, it more than doubled. All things considered, it looks fine against Maleficent. I'll go with 1.45M.

 

15 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

It 2  on its final day sold 1839 tickets at stop of tracking.  AQP II on an adjusted basis sold  881 tickets in approximately the same time frame.  The final comp comes in at 3172/5659 [56.05%] which = 5.89m.  Lop off 10% and that gives a comp of 5.3m, which isn't too far away from the GvK comp 4.5m.

 

Let's split the difference and call for 5m in previews, +/- .3m.

 

Sacto is very likely over-performing.  But what if it isn't? 

[Borobudur]

On 5/27/2021 at 11:35 PM, WrathOfHan said:

which would mean 4.8M in this comparison

@WandaLegion I think @WrathOfHan spiral comparison is even more spot on

[Cooper Legion]

5 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

@WandaLegion I think @WrathOfHan spiral comparison is even more spot on

Definitely so, just missed it while I was skimming through.

[Porthos]

15 hours ago, Porthos said:

Lop off 10% and that gives a comp of 5.3m, which isn't too far away from the GvK comp 4.5m.

 

Let's split the difference and call for 5m in previews, +/- .3m.

 

Sacto is very likely over-performing.  But what if it isn't? 

 

57 minutes ago, john2000 said:

https://deadline.com/2021/05/a-quiet-place-part-ii-cruella-memorial-day-weekend-box-office-1234766021/

 

 

‘A Quiet Place Part II’ Loud On Thursday Night With $4.8M

 

Edited May 28, 2021 by Porthos

[WrathOfHan]

2 hours ago, Borobudur said:

Was walk-up good last night? Or is this any good? Also, how we actually define walk-ups? Nowadays people buy ticket online most likely . 

Walk ups for AQP seemed pretty good while I was at the theater last night (not for my Dolby show since that was approaching capacity in the afternoon). Cruella had little to no walkups; I went to the final showing and don't think it had more than 15-16 people, which means it only gained a couple tickets from the afternoon.

 

1 hour ago, Borobudur said:

@WandaLegion I think @WrathOfHan spiral comparison is even more spot on

Pulling up a Spiral Friday comp, AQP would be 13.1M (3.55x Spiral). That's a low preview multi, so I'd expect a bit more. It's worth noting that the theater did not open until 4 when Spiral opened whereas it's opening at noon today for AQP. 

[Inceptionzq]

A Quiet Place Friday Showings Denver

 

3890 tickets sold in 15 theaters, 3381 tickets sold in 9 theaters for comp.

 

GvK comp: 11.8M

 

A Quiet Place is just barely outpacing GvK's Friday showings in the equivalent theaters. This won't exactly be a 1:1 comp because of more theaters being open, capacity restrictions, and the PWP comparison. But it is a good sign that the 9 theaters are about equal with what GvK was doing with some theaters still closed in the area. I'd guess that PWPs are much less of a factor with 2 major releases, and people becoming more comfortable going to see the movie with strangers. Not sure exactly where to pin this, but I wouldn't be surprised with 12M+. Really depends how much the ~700 theaters that weren't open previously can make up for the possible discrepancy in PWPs.

[Borobudur]

11 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

A Quiet Place Friday Showings Denver

 

3890 tickets sold in 15 theaters, 3381 tickets sold in 9 theaters for comp.

 

GvK comp: 11.8M

 

A Quiet Place is just barely outpacing GvK's Friday showings in the equivalent theaters. This won't exactly be a 1:1 comp because of more theaters being open, capacity restrictions, and the PWP comparison. But it is a good sign that the 9 theaters are about equal with what GvK was doing with some theaters still closed in the area. I'd guess that PWPs are much less of a factor with 2 major releases, and people becoming more comfortable going to see the movie with strangers. Not sure exactly where to pin this, but I wouldn't be surprised with 12M+. Really depends how much the ~700 theaters that weren't open previously can make up for the possible discrepancy in PWPs.

Considering GvK's first Friday was full on Easter holiday against AQP2's weekend eve, matching it on 1:1 ratio is a solid sign. GvK's friday PTA was $3855, even if we take $3000 PTA and multiply by the extra theaters, this could give AQP2 extra $2m over GvK, should have enough buffer to offset GvK's advantage in PWP  

[keysersoze123]

According to my numbers the MTC ratio was 47% of overall previews BO for AQP2. That is higher than what I hoped for(close to 40%). Obviously lack of Canada and still COVID affected limitations played a factor. I expect friday ratio to be 45% and saturday to be lower(hopefully closer to 40%). 

 

At least it will be easier to project for this movie. I would say 4 day weekend around 55m for now. Let us see how walk ups go today. 

 

Cruella was close to 50% !!! which means its BO is dominated by big markets where MTC share is higher. I am expecting low 20's for now.  hopefully I am way off. 

Edited May 28, 2021 by keysersoze123

[Borobudur]

I hate cliffhanger, my 50.2m club is still on the edge of IN and OUT.

[Inceptionzq]

9 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

Considering GvK's first Friday was full on Easter holiday against AQP2's weekend eve

This is true. 76% of K-12 schools were out for GvK Friday. Not sure how today compares, definitely lower, but I know in some places, the last day of school is essentially a non-school day. Just yearbook signings, checkouts, assemblies, class parties and whatnot. Today is the last day in Denver, so that’s probably the case here. Still might not really help morning/early afternoon showings, but families and high schoolers could still go to them if they really want to.
 

So I guess if AQP has slightly better walkup business than GvK, it could go even higher. But not holding my breath for 13M