The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

Just now, Eric Osborn said:

Moderation

 

Not the Deep Water thread. I understand the frustrations, but there's no reason to talk about it in this thread.

when I first started reading this I thought it said “not the Deep Wang thread” and I was so confused for 10 seconds…

[Porthos]

10 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

We haven't had a movie so big that is also having MTC 1/2 multi-huge ticket deals (between the Amazon Pay Atom deal today and then tomorrow's TMobile Atom one)...if I was iffy on a weekend number, it would be b/c I literally don't know how high those 2 might overindex vs the rest of theaters, and we tend to only see mostly MTC 1/2 data...and I don't know how much those 2 might pull in presales that would have been walk ups...

 

The Major Theater Chains also tend to have more screens so they can just load up on NWH while the smaller chains, especially the more regional ones, might run into capacity issues even if they unload all of the holdovers on to the smallest screens/fewer showtimes per day.

[Torontofan]

Also could people be deferring to not see it on opening weekend due to crwods? 

[john2000]

If we take a 45 mill previews it would only need a 4,4 multi to hit 200 mill ow and thats on par with TROS and a very low multi.I cant see a multi lower than that.

 

[Porthos]

4 minutes ago, Multiverse of XXR said:

when I first started reading this I thought it said “not the Deep Wang thread” and I was so confused for 10 seconds…

 

Well, he doesn't provide us with those hard... numbers anymore, so I can see why you might be primed to think this is Not The Deep Wang Thread. 

[Porthos]

Ah, sorry to make you sad, @Deep Wang. Still value your... penetrating insights even with the lack of... hard numbers. 👍 

[Menor the Destroyer]

10 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

The Major Theater Chains also tend to have more screens so they can just load up on NWH while the smaller chains, especially the more regional ones, might run into capacity issues even if they unload all of the holdovers on to the smallest screens/fewer showtimes per day.

I mean regional comps have been super strong as well. It's not like this thread is solely (or even mostly) comprised of MTC data.

Edited December 13, 2021 by Menor

[Deep Wang]

10 minutes ago, Menor said:

I'm inclined to think that this one location is just underperforming. I mean we have all our regional comps + scrapers pointing to a preview number that would very likely put this north of 200. Of course, there is a lot more uncertainty here than pre-Covid, but still. 

 

Well, the problem is that this isn't Mom and Pop shop, it's one of the highest grossing theaters in one of the biggest cities in the country.  Probably #1 in the city and Top 5 in the state, but not sure...

 

Not to mention the fact that we don't have any COVID restrictions here because of REDACTED.

 

All I'm saying is that it is troubling and I'm not as convinced it will act like a pre-pandemic movie post previews.  

 

 

 

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, Menor said:

I mean regional comps have been super strong as well. It's not like this thread is solely (or even mostly) comprised of MTC data.

 

Yes, I mentioned that originally.  

 

When it comes down to it, I am now leaning toward over-performance than under (it's why I quietly removed my "under protest" bit from my nightly reports). 

 

At the same time being a little cautious due to all of the variables doesn't seem unwarranted. 

[keysersoze123]

I think Spidey will be more frontloaded in regards to internal multiplier for OW than ROTS. Not bcos MCU is but due to this COVID era, there will be few folks who would suddenly decide at nth hour to walk in. Plus with holidays coming up people would rather wait to watch at a PLF screen. That could help with its overall legs if reception is not bad. Thinking critics wont be crazy with few plot twists.  Let us see how reviews are tonight.

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

 

If I wasn't interested in Spider-Man, I wouldn't want to go anywhere near a theater playing it to see anything else that weekend.

These gigantic $200m OWs don't lead to much spillover these days, do they?

Edited December 13, 2021 by BoxOfficeFangrl

[john2000]

14 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

Well, the problem is that this isn't Mom and Pop shop, it's one of the highest grossing theaters in one of the biggest cities in the country.  Probably #1 in the city and Top 5 in the state, but not sure...

 

Not to mention the fact that we don't have any COVID restrictions here because of REDACTED.

 

All I'm saying is that it is troubling and I'm not as convinced it will act like a pre-pandemic movie post previews.  

 

 

 

The required multi is low enough,and it doesnt even need a decent multi with the predicted previews BUT the predictions could very well be off  i guess, though so far the data that we have aquired is trustworthy  for the other movies.

Edited December 13, 2021 by john2000

[Menor the Destroyer]

I mean even like 45-52-50-40 is 187. If it fails to hit 190 that would mean walkups are very poor. Probably would be the most presale-heavy movie ever by some distance. 

Edited December 13, 2021 by Menor

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, Menor said:

I mean even like 45-52-50-40 is 187. If it fails to hit 190 that would mean walkups are very poor. 

That could be the case, though i fail to see how its walkups would be that poor.

Edited December 13, 2021 by john2000

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

5 minutes ago, Menor said:

I mean even like 45-52-50-40 is 187. If it fails to hit 190 that would mean walkups are very poor. 

Yea this would go against all MCU norms. I understand the COVID era is different, but I still look to NTTD in the UK as a barometer for what is achievable. NWH just needs to be good to do it.
 

If it hits $45M previews and can’t beat TLJ OW, I’d be pretty surprised. Nothing in the data so far indicates Friday, Saturday or even Sunday looks weak enough to justify the idea that it would be more frontloaded than TROS. I’m not saying it can’t be, I’m just saying the available data isn’t pointing to that.

Edited December 13, 2021 by Multiverse of XXR

[john2000]

14 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I think Spidey will be more frontloaded in regards to internal multiplier for OW than ROTS. Not bcos MCU is but due to this COVID era, there will be few folks who would suddenly decide at nth hour to walk in. Plus with holidays coming up people would rather wait to watch at a PLF screen. That could help with its overall legs if reception is not bad. Thinking critics wont be crazy with few plot twists.  Let us see how reviews are tonight.

ROTS also had poor WOM though with a B+ cinemascore, mcu movies in general arent as frontloaded as star wars movies at worst i would expect a multi like star wars but not below.As of now most of the movie we have had so far had a very normal multi , from their previews, though spidey is on another level and also on christmas  so we dont really have good comps other than star wars.

Edited December 13, 2021 by john2000

[Torontofan]

5 minutes ago, john2000 said:

ROTS also had poor WOM though with a B+ cinemascore, mcu movies in general arent as frontloaded as star wars movies at worst i would expect a multi like star wars but not below.As of now most of the movie we have had so far had a very normal multi , from their previews, though spidey is on another level and also on christmas  so we dont really have good comps other than star wars.

Revenge of the Sith got popular over time due to the memes and how bad the new star war movies where to many. 

[john2000]

The numbers at this point are that big that we cant say for sure right now, fr+sat+sun like the guys above said seem healty but still too early, for now we only have an idea about previews and even that isnt  guaranteed at all.The fact that the it didnt have a slow down in presales though like what happened to eternals is encouraging .

Edited December 13, 2021 by john2000

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, Torontofan said:

Revenge of the Sith got popular over time due to the memes and how bad the new star war movies where to many. 

 

Pssst.  The prequel movies were popular back in the day, even before the memes or comparisons to the newer movies.

 

(also, NOT THE STAR WARS THREAD)

((really ))

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 minutes ago, Torontofan said:

Revenge of the Sith got popular over time due to the memes and how bad the new star war movies where to many. 

ROTS had decent WOM from the beginning with an A- and solid reviews and audience scores -- but the movie in question here is TROS (now where people find the "t" to call Rise of Skywalker "ROTS" is always baffling question to me). Still, both movies do show how Star Wars tends to have a way bigger fan rush than most franchises, which is why I would expect NWH, even with Covid hampering things, to have a better trend through the weekend. 

 

Btw from what I can tell, Friday sales at Alpha are well outstripping what TROS had. Probably will be the same everywhere except Regal. 

Edited December 13, 2021 by Menor