The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Eric the Ape]

22 hours ago, Eric Feels Pretty said:

Spider-Man: No Way Home Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-5 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	11	223	19,651	40,022	49.10%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 644

 

Comp

2.588x of Black Widow's Final Count (34.16M)

3.752x of Venom 2's Final Count (43.52M)

 

Adjusted Comp

1.301x of Star Wars: TROS T-5 (52.06M)

Spider-Man: No Way Home Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-4 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	13	223	20,372	40,022	50.90%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 721

 

Comp

2.683x of Black Widow's Final Count (35.41M)

3.889x of Venom 2's Final Count (45.11M)

 

Adjusted Comp

1.302x of Star Wars: TROS T-4 (52.06M)

 

The end is near mah bois.

[Legion Again]

5 minutes ago, Eric Feels Pretty said:

Spider-Man: No Way Home Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-4 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	13	223	20,372	40,022	50.90%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 721

 

Comp

2.683x of Black Widow's Final Count (35.41M)

3.889x of Venom 2's Final Count (45.11M)

 

Adjusted Comp

1.630x of Star Wars: TROS T-4 (65.2M)

 

The end is near mah bois.

Yesterday’s comp implies TROS t-5 15104, today comp implies TROS t-4 12498. I assume TROS didn’t have 2500 cancellations on it’s Sun so some arithmetic typo somewhere seems likely 😛 

[Eric the Ape]

22 hours ago, Eric Feels Pretty said:

The Matrix: Resurrections Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-11 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	55	1,015	9574	10.60%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 53

 

Comp

0.913x of Godzilla vs. Kong T-11 (8.86M)

3.395x of The Suicide Squad T-11 (13.92M)

1.350x of Dune T-11 (6.88M)

The Matrix: Resurrections Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-10 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	55	1,076	9574	11.24%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 61

 

Comp

0.936x of Godzilla vs. Kong T-10  (9.09M)

3.438x of The Suicide Squad T-10 (14.09M)

1.362x of Dune T-10 (6.95M)

[Eric the Ape]

12 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:

Yesterday’s comp implies TROS t-5 15104, today comp implies TROS t-4 12498. I assume TROS didn’t have 2500 cancellations on it’s Sun so some arithmetic typo somewhere seems likely 😛 

UGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG I FUCKED UP BRB

 

EDIT: I fixed it

[Eric the Ape]

22 hours ago, Eric Feels Pretty said:

Sing 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-11 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	61	1684	10811	15.58%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 24

 

Total Seats WITHOUT EARLY ACCESS: 276

 

Comp (WITHOUT Early Access)

5.520x of Jungle Cruise T-11 (14.9M)

Sing 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-10 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	61	1719	10811	15.90%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 35

Total Seats WITHOUT EARLY ACCESS: 311

 

Comp (WITHOUT Early Access)

2.549x of Cruella Thu+Fri T-10 (19.65M)

5.271x of Jungle Cruise T-10 (14.23M)

 

Got a new comp. A little too high at the moment, but should go down quite a bit as we get closer to release.

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

No Way Home Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-5 Days and Counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	1	325	19372	39120	19748	50.48%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

515

 

As of T-5, No Way Home has sold...

2.1475x as many tickets as Black Widow  did at stop of tracking.             [29.68m]*

3.3775x as many tickets as Shang-Chi did at stop of tracking.                 [29.72m]

2.5607x as many tickets as Let There Be Carnage did at stop of tracking. [29.70m]

3.0813x as many tickets as Eternals did at stop of tracking.                     [29.27m]

* [adj for Ontario]

 

T-5 Adjusted Comp 

***100% use at own risk*** — see cautionary note below

	%		Sold T-5	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
EG	88.83		222	19914		22/254	6123/26037	76.48%		53.30m
TROS	118.66		215	15784		6/213	8914/24698	63.91%		47.47m
NWH (EG adj)	---		494	17689		1/325	16282/33971	52.07%		---
NWH (SW adj)	---		503	18730		1/325	16997/35727	52.43%		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: NWH (EG adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include DBOX tracking which started earlier this year, a theater which converted to reserved seating this year as well as making an on-the-fly adjustment for a theater which I had partial data for EG and has now shut down and been replaced by another theater a mile a way [for this I am doing only a PLF-PLF comparison for the theater in question]

ADJUSTMENT NOTE #2: NWH (SW adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include DBOX tracking which started earlier this year as well as a theater that which converted to reserved seating this year.  The theater which has been replaced is 100% included in this comp. 

CAUTIONARY 2021 COMPS NOTE:  ***ALL*** Sacramento 2021 comps when compared to similar pre-COVID movies have been running higher than what has actually been reported.  ABSOLUTELY KEEP THIS IN MIND THAT THIS COMP COULD VERY WELL BE OFF BY AS MUCH AS 15 to 20 PERCENT, or even more.   See here for explanation.

 

Regal:       5425/12528 [43.30% sold] [+168 tickets]

Matinee:    1998/5174  [38.62% sold | 10.12% of all tickets sold]

 

No Way Home Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 Days and Counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	1	325	18958	39120	20522	52.46%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

774

 

As of T-4, No Way Home has sold...

2.2316x as many tickets as Black Widow  did at stop of tracking.             [30.85m]*

3.5098x as many tickets as Shang-Chi did at stop of tracking.                 [30.88m]

2.6610x as many tickets as Let There Be Carnage did at stop of tracking. [30.87m]

3.2021x as many tickets as Eternals did at stop of tracking.                     [30.42m]

* [adj for Ontario]

 

T-4 Adjusted Comp 

***100% use at own risk*** — see cautionary note below

	%		Sold T-4	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
EG	90.22		457	20371		28/254	5666/26037	78.24%		54.13m
TROS	120.08		400	16184		7/213	8514/24698	65.53%		48.03m
NWH (EG adj)	---		690	18379		1/325	15592/33971	54.10%		---
NWH (SW adj)	---		704	19434		1/325	16293/35727	54.40%		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: NWH (EG adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include DBOX tracking which started earlier this year, a theater which converted to reserved seating this year as well as making an on-the-fly adjustment for a theater which I had partial data for EG and has now shut down and been replaced by another theater a mile a way [for this I am doing only a PLF-PLF comparison for the theater in question]

ADJUSTMENT NOTE #2: NWH (SW adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include DBOX tracking which started earlier this year as well as a theater that which converted to reserved seating this year.  The theater which has been replaced is 100% included in this comp. 

CAUTIONARY 2021 COMPS NOTE:  ***ALL*** Sacramento 2021 comps when compared to similar pre-COVID movies have been running higher than what has actually been reported.  ABSOLUTELY KEEP THIS IN MIND THAT THIS COMP COULD VERY WELL BE OFF BY AS MUCH AS 15 to 20 PERCENT, or even more.   See here for explanation.

 

Regal:       5708/12528 [45.56% sold] [+283 tickets]

Matinee:    2091/5174  [40.41% sold | 10.19% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

NWH (SW adj) will pass TROS's final numbers at stop of tracking (19,541) early tomorrow, locally at least.

[Legion Again]

Pretty nuts pace, and still plenty remaining capacity compared to the comps. Not inconceivable for NWH (EG adj) to exceed AEG at final bell.

[Porthos]

20 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:

Pretty nuts pace, and still plenty remaining capacity compared to the comps. Not inconceivable for NWH (EG adj) to exceed AEG at final bell.

 

It could be a lot more nutty, but the Resistance to Crappy Seats is real.  Like, really real.  Right now, outside of SMG which added three shows relatively late in the pre-sale run, the vast majority of these sales are going to the "B-tier" and even "C-tier" theaters locally, as folks are just refusing to buy close-to-the-screen and many of the aisle seats at the better theaters/showtimes (outside of the PLF screenings, that is — that seems to be premium enough to entice people to purchase the crappy seats.  Problem there is, they're already approaching saturation as well).  

 

The slight wrinkle here is many, though not all, of the best theaters in town have already  set aside their best screens for NWH.  So when/if they continue to add screens, it'll be at the smaller auditoriums.  Only Regal Delta Shores and perhaps Century DoCo might see some beefy expansion in the coming days.  Not that there won't be expansion at some of the other heavy hitters.  Just that we're already approaching diminishing returns with them.  Thus, for now, it's the other theaters in the region picking up the slack.  And then some.

Edited December 13, 2021 by Porthos

[Legion Again]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

It could be a lot more nutty, but the Resistance to Crappy Seats is real.  Like, really real.  Right now, outside of SMG which added three shows relatively late in the pre-sale run, the vast majority of these sales are going to the "B-tier" and even "C-tier" theaters locally, as folks are just refusing to buy close-to-the-screen and many of the aisle seats at the better theaters/showtimes (outside of the PLF screenings, that is — that seems to be premium enough to entice people to purchase the crappy seats.  Problem there is, they're already approaching saturation as well).  

 

The slight wrinkle here is many, though not all, of the best theaters in town have already  set aside their best screens for NWH.  So when/if they continue to add screens, it'll be at the smaller auditoriums.  Only Regal Delta Shores and perhaps Century DoCo might see some beefy expansion in the coming days.  Not that there won't be expansion at some of the other heavy hitters.  Just that we're already approaching diminishing returns with them.  Thus, for now, it's the other theaters in the region picking up the slack.  And then some.

A very interesting wrinkle for sure. If final week is when people start hovering up B tier seats, we’ll get a super mega nutty preview and probably quite a low Fri/Th. If the resistance remains until the end, then previews will be merely super nutty and Fri/Th should be higher.

[nguyenkhoi282]

When will NWH beat Venom's OW just by presales? Last time i heard it's around 75M already right.

[Legion Again]

17 minutes ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

When will NWH beat Venom's OW just by presales? Last time i heard it's around 75M already right.

Yes, should happen early Wed +- like 12 hours.

[XXR vs XXR]

Unless the review embargo curtails things, I’m liking $50M previews more and more.

[Legion Again]

If Sacto follows TROS final week pattern, the TROS comp should end up at 55ish, from which I would expect an actual of 48ish.   
 

If it follows AEG final week pattern, the AEG comp should end up at 66ish, from which I would expect an actual of 58ish.   

If it follows IW final week pattern, the AEG comp should end up at 58ish, from which I’d expect an actual of 51ish.    
 

AEG final week was absolutely nutter butters, but I would probably target +-50 based purely off Sacto voodoo magic  

  
 

I built my sheet out a little more, will probably try to add Denver, Philly, and Kantmiss tristate blend over next day or two.

[XXR vs XXR]

39 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:

If it follows AEG final week pattern, the AEG comp should end up at 66ish, from which I would expect an actual of 58ish.  

I find this one to be most pleasing. Don’t fail me now, Sacto!

[Legion Again]

12 minutes ago, Multiverse of XXR said:

I find this one to be most pleasing. Don’t fail me now, Sacto!

It’s written in blood now, 57.5=flop

[Legion Again]

1 hour ago, Product Driven Legion said:

If Sacto follows TROS final week pattern, the TROS comp should end up at 55ish, from which I would expect an actual of 48ish.   
 

If it follows AEG final week pattern, the AEG comp should end up at 66ish, from which I would expect an actual of 58ish.   

If it follows IW final week pattern, the AEG comp should end up at 58ish, from which I’d expect an actual of 51ish.    
 

AEG final week was absolutely nutter butters, but I would probably target +-50 based purely off Sacto voodoo magic  

  
 

I built my sheet out a little more, will probably try to add Denver, Philly, and Kantmiss tristate blend over next day or two.

On  a more serious note — I am pretty wary about all of these. NWH’s last few days have been at a ridiculous ratio and it’s not at all obvious that ramping up like any of these comps is even possible. Monday should give us a much better sense.

[XXR vs XXR]

9 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:

On  a more serious note — I am pretty wary about all of these. NWH’s last few days have been at a ridiculous ratio and it’s not at all obvious that ramping up like any of these comps is even possible. Monday should give us a much better sense.

For reference, what would the numbers looked like if it merely matched what those films did from here out?

 

[Legion Again]

21 minutes ago, Multiverse of XXR said:

For reference, what would the numbers looked like if it merely matched what those films did from here out?

 

TROS adjusted: adds like 3.3k for a comp of 46, actual maybe 41ish

AEG adjusted: adds like 6.3k for a comp of 55.5, actual maybe 48ish   
 

 

Edited December 13, 2021 by Product Driven Legion

[TwoMisfits]

Amazon Atom Pay deal is live - $5 off a $6+ ticket - somehow, I see this cheap Tuesday and Spiderman tickets doing well today...

 

PS - Not sure this will combine with the Spidey TMobile deal tomorrow b/c it's a promo code and that one will be a promo code, too, and I think Atom makes you choose only one code per purchase (of course, you could buy 1 ticket with 1 promo and 1 ticket with the other, and have 2 tickets for almost nothing)...and the TMobile price is probably why it's $5 off $6 or more (since Spidey will be $4)...

Edited December 13, 2021 by TwoMisfits

[ZackM]

11 hours ago, ZackM said:

No, I can do one tonight though.

NWH - Friday

Theaters - 433

Showings - 6,480

Sold - 501,296

Total - 1,189,226

ATP - $15.00