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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

By grim22, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by Porthos,

Really depends on what you're looking for, but usually the most important takeaway for just a casual glance is the comp.  More on that in a bit.   But even that is highly dependent on a movie being either in a similar genre or having a similar pre-sale pattern as folks will buy tickets at different times during a pre-sale window thanks to a very long list of factors.   Add in that movies will have different promotional schedules during their pre-sales (review embargoes, TV ca
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Posted by Cap,

MODERATION:   Hi, everyone. It’s 6 o’clock in the morning. I have not gone to bed yet. And I am tired. And I know it’s going to be a very long weekend. Here is the new rule.   This thread is for numbers and data. Please post your theater updates. Please post your comparable data. And please talk about that comparable data here.    If you wish to do a deep dive on why you think that data might or might not suck, then take it to the respective thread of the movie in ques
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katnisscinnaplex Box Office Gold

katnisscinnaplex

Posted
Posted
21 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day Movie Area Theaters Shows Total Seats Total Sold New Sales % Sold
T-1 Hr Black Widow Jacksonville 6 76 12,095 2,333 555 19.29%
    Phoenix 7 77 10,692 1,881 270 17.59%
    Raleigh 8 74 8,303 3,148 746 37.91%
  Black Widow Total   21 227 31,090 7,362 1,571 23.68%
T-1 Hr Eternals Jacksonville 6 72 10,311 1,811 526 17.56%
    Phoenix 7 59 8,999 1,848 320 20.54%
    Raleigh 8 37 4,098 1,713 380 41.80%
  Eternals Total   21 168 23,408 5,372 1,226 22.95%
T-1 Hr Shang-Chi Jacksonville 6 60 8,619 1,423 493 16.51%
    Phoenix 7 51 7,193 1,349 262 18.75%
    Raleigh 8 40 4,505 1,327 332 29.46%
  Shang-Chi Total   21 151 20,317 4,099 1,087 20.18%
T-4 Spider-Man Jacksonville 7 159 23,064 6,965 171 30.20%
    Phoenix 7 162 21,103 9,552 270 45.26%
    Raleigh 8 97 10,939 6,358 162 58.12%
  Spider-Man Total   22 418 55,106 22,875 603 41.51%

 

T-4 increase % comps

 

Spider - 2.71%

BW - 6.14%

SC - 8.62%

Eternals - 7.39%

 

Two shows had groups cancel, with drops of 25 and 32.  Not huge in the grand scheme, but brought sales down a little

 

Quick check-in on T-4 sales comps...

 

BW  - 6.75x (89.1m)

SC -  14.64x (128.79m)

Eternals - 9.26x (87.98m)

 

Obviously the growth rate will remain much much lower than all of these, but this gives you an idea just how far ahead it is with just a week left.  Here's where the comps would be if it had no more presales until an hour before shows began...

 

BW  - 3.11x (41.01m)

SC -  5.58x (49.11m)

Eternals - 4.26 (40.45m)

 

Total sales

 

Spider-Man - $302,477 (13.22 ATP)

 

Black Widow Final - $94,329 (12.81 ATP)

Eternals Final - $74,356 (13.84 ATP)

Shang-Chi Final - $54,954 (13.41 ATP)

 

Splits

 

 

Movie Mat Sold % Sales ATP
Spider-Man N 19,907 87.04% $270,354.95 13.58
  Y 2,963 12.96% $32,059.50 10.82

 

 

Movie Format Sold % Sales ATP
Spider-Man PLF 7,851 34.33% $127,043.78 16.18
  Standard 15,019 65.67% $175,370.67 11.68

 

 

Movie Chain Sold % Sales ATP
Spider-Man AMC 13,385 58.53% $171,264.85 12.80
  Cinemark 5,644 24.68% $81,189.85 14.39
  CMX 28 0.12% $419.72 14.99
  Regal 3,317 14.50% $44,229.63 13.33
  RoadHouse 285 1.25% $3,042.15 10.67
  Sun-Ray 211 0.92% $2,268.25 10.75

 

Day Movie Area Theaters Shows Total Seats Total Sold New Sales % Sold
T-1 Hr Black Widow Jacksonville 6 76 12,095 2,333 555 19.29%
    Phoenix 7 77 10,692 1,881 270 17.59%
    Raleigh 8 74 8,303 3,148 746 37.91%
  Black Widow Total   21 227 31,090 7,362 1,571 23.68%
T-1 Hr Eternals Jacksonville 6 72 10,311 1,811 526 17.56%
    Phoenix 7 59 8,999 1,848 320 20.54%
    Raleigh 8 37 4,098 1,713 380 41.80%
  Eternals Total   21 168 23,408 5,372 1,226 22.95%
T-1 Hr Shang-Chi Jacksonville 6 60 8,619 1,423 493 16.51%
    Phoenix 7 51 7,193 1,349 262 18.75%
    Raleigh 8 40 4,505 1,327 332 29.46%
  Shang-Chi Total   21 151 20,317 4,099 1,087 20.18%
T-3 Spider-Man Jacksonville 7 159 23,064 7,293 328 31.62%
    Phoenix 7 162 21,103 9,950 398 47.15%
    Raleigh 8 97 10,939 6,697 339 61.22%
  Spider-Man Total   22 418 55,106 23,940 1,065 43.44%

 

T-3 increase % comps

 

Spider - 4.66%

BW - 5.67%

SC - 16.25%

Eternals - 7.61%

 

Quick check-in on T-3 sales comps...

 

BW  - 6.69x (88.25m)

SC -  13.18x (115.94m)

Eternals - 9.01x (85.56m)

 

Here's where the comps would be if it had no more presales until an hour before shows began...

 

BW  - 3.25x (42.92m)

SC -  5.84x (51.39m)

Eternals - 4.46 (42.34m)

 

Average projected forecast = 52.14m

 

jnBqFtM.png

 

Here's a sample of the new sales by day for the Marvel movies in my areas.  With all of the deals kicking off and reviews dropping maybe I'll have to zoom out by Wednesday.  (For reference, "1" in the chart is new sales between preview morning and T-1 hour)

 

Total sales

 

Spider-Man - $315,559 (13.18 ATP)

 

Black Widow Final - $94,329 (12.81 ATP)

Eternals Final - $74,356 (13.84 ATP)

Shang-Chi Final - $54,954 (13.41 ATP)

 

I'm starting to wonder if this will get as low as BW in overall ATP. 

 

Splits

 

Movie Mat Sold % Sales ATP
Spider-Man N 20,805 86.96% $281,768.26 13.54
  Y 3,119 13.04% $33,591.55 10.77

 

Movie Format Sold % Sales ATP
Spider-Man PLF 8,038 33.60% $130,053.87 16.18
  Standard 15,886 66.40% $185,305.94 11.66

 

Movie Chain Sold % Sales ATP
Spider-Man AMC 13,886 58.04% $176,985.65 12.75
  Cinemark 5,827 24.36% $83,796.38 14.38
  CMX 28 0.12% $419.72 14.99
  Regal 3,612 15.10% $48,073.81 13.31
  RoadHouse 356 1.49% $3,773.00 10.60
  Sun-Ray 215 0.90% $2,311.25 10.75
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katnisscinnaplex Box Office Gold

katnisscinnaplex

Posted
Posted
22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day Movie Area Theaters Shows Total Seats Total Sold New Sales % Sold
T-10 Matrix 4 (Wed) Jacksonville 6 33 5,931 344 22 5.80%
    Phoenix 6 18 2,924 372 18 12.72%
    Raleigh 8 29 3,516 468 38 13.31%
  Matrix 4 (Wed) Total   19 80 12,371 1,184 78 9.57%

 

I think I had my days off by one because of the Wednesday open, so this is actually T-10 update. 

 

T-10 Matrix comps

 

TSS - 3.92x (16.07m)

NTTD - 2.51x (13.04m)

Dune - 1.83x (9.35m)

SC - 1.38x (12.13m)


Avg -  12.65m

Day Movie Area Theaters Shows Total Seats Total Sold New Sales % Sold
T-9 Matrix 4 (Wed) Jacksonville 6 33 5,931 392 48 6.61%
    Phoenix 6 18 2,924 407 35 13.92%
    Raleigh 8 29 3,516 522 54 14.85%
  Matrix 4 (Wed) Total   19 80 12,371 1,321 137 10.68%

 

T-9 Matrix comps

 

TSS - 4.18x (17.14m)

NTTD - 2.51x (13.03m)

Dune - 1.93x (9.84m)

SC - 1.35x (11.91m)


Avg -  12.98m

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Menor the Destroyer Summer Tentpole

Menor the Destroyer

Posted
Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, ZackM said:

NWH - Friday

Theaters - 433

Showings - 6,480

Sold - 501,296

Total - 1,189,226

ATP - $15.00

Taking yesterday's pace as maybe 23k, if it follows TROS, perhaps 189k until final PS. 690k final PS or about 10.2 million in Alpha. Not sure exactly what that would be nationwide. 

Edited by Menor
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keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

Posted
Posted
59 minutes ago, ZackM said:

NWH - Friday

Theaters - 433

Showings - 6,480

Sold - 501,296

Total - 1,189,226

ATP - $15.00

I had run OD on 12th and got (413039/1143020 6318067.17 6168 shows). Good growth in something under 6 days. But I have no clue how to project. There may not be much walkups as most prime time shows are close to sellouts. 

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katnisscinnaplex Box Office Gold

katnisscinnaplex

Posted
Posted
23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Santikos Theaters tracking

 

**New sales since Thursday morning.

 

 

Day Movie Format Shows New Sales Total Sold True Capacity % Sold ATP Gross
T-4 Spider-Man PLF 39 141 7,279 8,518 85.45% $14.38 $104,681.42
    Standard 103 838 9,411 13,683 68.78% $11.00 $103,489.28
  Spider-Man Total   142 979 16,690 22,201 75.18% $12.47 $208,170.70
T-5 Spidey (Fri) PLF 56 343 7,759 12,379 62.68% $14.17 $109,957.70
    Standard 88 522 6,007 13,626 44.08% $10.47 $62,885.33
  Spidey (Fri) Total   144 865 13,766 26,005 52.94% $12.56 $172,843.03

 

 

Day Movie Mat Shows New Sales Total Sold True Capacity % Sold ATP Gross
T-4 Spider-Man N 106 713 12,741 16,282 78.25% $13.24 $168,711.43
    Y 36 266 3,949 5,919 66.72% $9.99 $39,459.27
  Spider-Man Total   142 979 16,690 22,201 75.18% $12.47 $208,170.70
T-5 Spidey (Fri) N 73 324 9,189 13,709 67.03% $13.63 $125,221.97
    Y 71 541 4,577 12,296 37.22% $10.40 $47,621.06
  Spidey (Fri) Total   144 865 13,766 26,005 52.94% $12.56 $172,843.03

 

 

Preview sales breakdown by theater/format

 

 

Theater Format Shows New Sales Total Sold True Capacity % Sold ATP Gross
Casa Blanca PLF 10 23 2,565 2,966 86.48% $14.27 $36,593.78
  Standard 14 351 1,468 2,330 63.00% $12.20 $17,908.32
Cibolo PLF 7 27 1,005 1,435 70.03% $12.72 $12,786.25
  Standard 7 24 548 931 58.86% $11.07 $6,067.94
Embassy 14 Standard 16 51 1,170 1,702 68.74% $11.92 $13,946.40
Galaxy Standard 12 64 1,114 1,759 63.33% $9.60 $10,690.52
Mayan Palace PLF 3 17 419 468 89.53% $12.17 $5,098.64
  Standard 11 109 1,199 1,539 77.91% $9.55 $11,456.32
New Braunfels Standard 12 36 473 708 66.81% $9.12 $4,315.42
Northwest Standard 12 58 1,201 1,634 73.50% $9.60 $11,533.58
Palladium IMAX PLF 13 72 2,580 2,872 89.83% $15.56 $40,157.40
  Standard 12 91 834 1,088 76.65% $13.26 $11,056.23
Silverado 16 PLF 6 2 710 777 91.38% $14.15 $10,045.35
  Standard 7 54 1,404 1,992 70.48% $11.76 $16,514.55

Santikos Theaters tracking

 

Day Movie Format Shows New Sales Total Sold True Capacity % Sold ATP Gross
T-3 Spider-Man PLF 39 159 7,438 8,518 87.32% $14.37 $106,852.43
    Standard 103 274 9,685 13,683 70.78% $10.99 $106,426.80
  Spider-Man Total   142 433 17,123 22,201 77.13% $12.46 $213,279.23
T-4 Spidey (Fri) PLF 56 245 8,004 12,379 64.66% $14.13 $113,128.23
    Standard 88 242 6,249 13,626 45.86% $10.46 $65,338.18
  Spidey (Fri) Total   144 487 14,253 26,005 54.81% $12.52 $178,466.41

 

Day Movie Mat Shows New Sales Total Sold True Capacity % Sold ATP Gross
T-3 Spider-Man N 106 320 13,061 16,282 80.22% $13.22 $172,700.45
    Y 36 113 4,062 5,919 68.63% $9.99 $40,578.78
  Spider-Man Total   142 433 17,123 22,201 77.13% $12.46 $213,279.23
T-4 Spidey (Fri) N 73 249 9,438 13,709 68.85% $13.61 $128,475.71
    Y 71 238 4,815 12,296 39.16% $10.38 $49,990.70
  Spidey (Fri) Total   144 487 14,253 26,005 54.81% $12.52 $178,466.41

 

 

I keep thinking this can't get much higher for previews but tickets keep selling.  Now at 77.13% sold for previews!

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Krissykins Global Phenomenon

Krissykins

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

It could be a lot more nutty, but the Resistance to Crappy Seats is real.  Like, really real.  Right now, outside of SMG which added three shows relatively late in the pre-sale run, the vast majority of these sales are going to the "B-tier" and even "C-tier" theaters locally, as folks are just refusing to buy close-to-the-screen and many of the aisle seats at the better theaters/showtimes (outside of the PLF screenings, that is — that seems to be premium enough to entice people to purchase the crappy seats.  Problem there is, they're already approaching saturation as well).  

This comes out here on Wednesday but I’m not going to go and see it until Saturday for this very reason lol. I’m not watching it side-on. 

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ZackM Box Office Gold

ZackM

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, ZackM said:

NWH - Friday

Theaters - 433

Showings - 6,480

Sold - 501,296

Total - 1,189,226

ATP - $15.00

NWH - Saturday

Theaters - 433

Showings - 6,647

Sold - 412,240

Total - 1,221,258

ATP - $14.56

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keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

Posted
Posted
53 minutes ago, ZackM said:

NWH - Saturday

Theaters - 433

Showings - 6,647

Sold - 412,240

Total - 1,221,258

ATP - $14.56

 

This is the movie I expect to sell lots of child tickets on saturday. ATP will be lower for sure. We will know for sure on saturday based on comscore data that @charlie Jatinder should hopefully track. 

 

Exciting weekend coming up for sure. 

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Torontofan Box Office Gold

Torontofan

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

This is the movie I expect to sell lots of child tickets on saturday. ATP will be lower for sure. We will know for sure on saturday based on comscore data that @charlie Jatinder should hopefully track. 

 

Exciting weekend coming up for sure. 

 

Yeah Sat and and Sunday shows are filling up as well which to me shows it will play well all weekend.

 

I feel though the weekend will not get to crazy as a lot of people will still watch this in the weekdays due to winter and Xmas and avoid it being to busy. 

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