The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Justin4125]

52 minutes ago, TMP said:

An adult drama could always hit $200m dom if it strikes the right chord. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood?

I totally agree. Considering the cast + Tarantino and my own feeling that the market is starving for an adult drama (a sorely underserved market given that studios increasingly make their event films pleasing to all four quadrants in order to hedge themselves financially) I have high hopes for this movie. I think even if it doesnt hit that chord itll do just fine box office wise, but if it does we could definitely see $200M+

 

EDIT: 200M+ domestically, it will surely perform well in some OS regions as well

Edited June 4, 2019 by Justin4125

[Menor the Destroyer]

Tbh I'm not sure why WW1984 is considered such a heavy favorite. Yes the first one did very well but this one won't have the cultural event status, and the only teamup movie she was in was JL. I wouldn't be shocked at a decrease.

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, Menor said:

Tbh I'm not sure why WW1984 is considered such a heavy favorite. Yes the first one did very well but this one won't have the cultural event status, and the only teamup movie she was in was JL. I wouldn't be shocked at a decrease.

It all depends on angle. I don’t think a teamup or even a bad teamup means automatic increase or decrease. I think it will have a light increase and probably has the best chance for $400M DOM out of everything in 2020. Eternals and Onward come in second though.

[Ms Lady Hawk]

3 minutes ago, Menor said:

Tbh I'm not sure why WW1984 is considered such a heavy favorite. Yes the first one did very well but this one won't have the cultural event status, and the only teamup movie she was in was JL. I wouldn't be shocked at a decrease.

Maybe you’re right, but the first WW wasn’t only successful because of the cultural aspects. That came into effect as her box office built up. A lot of the success of the first film was based more on women who watched the tv version going out to watch her. I think they will come out again. I know, I will multiple times. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

On 5/28/2019 at 12:30 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Akvalley's daily page is not updated for this week but we have report page updated.

 

8978    2019-05-30    THU    Godzilla: King of Monsters
6571    2019-05-31    FRI    Godzilla: King of Monsters
4676    2019-06-01    SAT    Godzilla: King of Monsters
1889    2019-06-02    SUN    Godzilla: King of Monsters

Dark Phoenix at the same point as KOTM in this update 

Thurs 6379

Fri 4653

Sat 3856

Sun 1651

 

Just based on these ratios gives 4.5-9.4-13.4-10.7 or a $38 million weekend. 

[Eric the Minion]

@Menor Think you can look up the dailies for Pets? I obviously don't want a comp with Aladdin, but if you're able to find stuff for Grinch or Hotel Transylvania 3, that'd be awesome.

[filmlover]

Just watch Disney sweep again next year just to troll BOT lol.

[keysersoze123]

9 minutes ago, Menor said:

Dark Phoenix at the same point as KOTM in this update 

Thurs 6379

Fri 4653

Sat 3856

Sun 1651

 

Just based on these ratios gives 4.5-9.4-13.4-10.7 or a $38 million weekend. 

Dark Phoenix is going to be driven by Atom. Tmobile subscribers can buy tickets at $4. I don’t think there was a deal for Zilla last week. its definitely opening > 40m. It will also play wider than a monster movie. I am thinking its going to open closer to 50m than 40m.

[YM!]

Just now, keysersoze123 said:

Dark Phoenix is going to be driven by Atom. Tmobile subscribers can buy tickets at $4. I don’t think there was a deal for Zilla last week. its definitely opening > 40m. It will also play wider than a monster movie. I am thinking its going to open closer to 50m than 40m.

On the contrary, the X-Men movies are the most presales driven out of the CBMs.

[Porthos]

4 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

@Menor Think you can look up the dailies for Pets? I obviously don't want a comp with Aladdin, but if you're able to find stuff for Grinch or Hotel Transylvania 3, that'd be awesome.

 

SLOP2:

Thr:  1309

Fri:   3302

Sat:  2379

Sun: 1241

 

Not sure we can break out Grinch or HT3 at this point in time, as I think the akvalley archive pages just stores finals.

Edited June 4, 2019 by Porthos

[DisposedData]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dark Phoenix is going to be driven by Atom. Tmobile subscribers can buy tickets at $4. I don’t think there was a deal for Zilla last week. its definitely opening > 40m. It will also play wider than a monster movie. I am thinking its going to open closer to 50m than 40m.

It will also be more presale heavy than a monster movie as this is more of a fan driven film. I don't see anything indicating that this is opening higher than 40m lol.

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

@Menor Think you can look up the dailies for Pets? I obviously don't want a comp with Aladdin, but if you're able to find stuff for Grinch or Hotel Transylvania 3, that'd be awesome.

Pets

Thurs 1285

Fri 3251

Sat 2339

Sun 1226

 

Grinch (final)

Thurs 7584

Fri  27717

Sat 31146

Sun 24678

 

Hotel 3 (final)

Thurs 6713

Fri 23395

Sat 18959

Sun 16454

 

Don't have any same-day comps as I don't think the akvalley daily tracker was used in this thread until recently.

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

On the contrary, the X-Men movies are the most presales driven out of the CBMs.

Probably. Unfortunately we dont have Atom data. Deep Wang has not provided an update for a month as well. So let us wait until thursday evening.

[Menor the Destroyer]

13 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dark Phoenix is going to be driven by Atom. Tmobile subscribers can buy tickets at $4. I don’t think there was a deal for Zilla last week. its definitely opening > 40m. It will also play wider than a monster movie. I am thinking its going to open closer to 50m than 40m.

Do we have any comps with other movies that had such a deal? I'm not convinced it will have such a massive effect. Edit: So Alita had one and it did in fact skew things a bit. I will look to see how different the Fandango preview estimates are to @Porthos and others with theater tracking to see how much of an effect it will have this weekend.

Edited June 4, 2019 by Menor

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, Menor said:

Pets

Thurs 1285

Fri 3251

Sat 2339

Sun 1226

 

Grinch (final)

Thurs 7584

Fri  27717

Sat 31146

Sun 24678

 

Hotel 3 (final)

Thurs 6713

Fri 23395

Sat 18959

Sun 16454

 

Don't have any same-day comps as I don't think the akvalley daily tracker was used in this thread until recently.

 

Just looking at thursday numbers, it looks unlikely to hit HT3 or Grinch numbers. what were the previews for those 2 movies.

The Secret Life of Pets 2    2019-06-06    THU    68    2019-05-29
The Secret Life of Pets 2    2019-06-06    THU    72    2019-05-30
The Secret Life of Pets 2    2019-06-06    THU    54    2019-05-31
The Secret Life of Pets 2    2019-06-06    THU    54    2019-06-01
The Secret Life of Pets 2    2019-06-06    THU    149    2019-06-02
The Secret Life of Pets 2    2019-06-06    THU    385    2019-06-03
The Secret Life of Pets 2    2019-06-06    THU    178    2019-06-04
The Secret Life of Pets 2    2019-06-06    THU    1309

 

Probably will end up around 1700 today at best. May not sell more than 6000 by thursday evening. But its PS is backloaded and walk ins will be good.

[keysersoze123]

4 minutes ago, Menor said:

Do we have any comps with other movies that had such a deal? I'm not convinced it will have such a massive effect.

Only other movie which I remember having that deal recently was John Wick 3.

[xiazhi]

53 minutes ago, Menor said:

I think Mulan and both MCU have a shot at beating Wonder Woman

1984 will do ww number at best

 

[filmlover]

3 screens each for both new releases here.

[Menor the Destroyer]

8 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

Just looking at thursday numbers, it looks unlikely to hit HT3 or Grinch numbers. what were the previews for those 2 movies.

The Secret Life of Pets 2    2019-06-06    THU    68    2019-05-29
The Secret Life of Pets 2    2019-06-06    THU    72    2019-05-30
The Secret Life of Pets 2    2019-06-06    THU    54    2019-05-31
The Secret Life of Pets 2    2019-06-06    THU    54    2019-06-01
The Secret Life of Pets 2    2019-06-06    THU    149    2019-06-02
The Secret Life of Pets 2    2019-06-06    THU    385    2019-06-03
The Secret Life of Pets 2    2019-06-06    THU    178    2019-06-04
The Secret Life of Pets 2    2019-06-06    THU    1309

 

Probably will end up around 1700 today at best. May not sell more than 6000 by thursday evening. But its PS is backloaded and walk ins will be good.

2.6 for Hotel and 2.2 for Grinch, I think the PS for Hotel Transylvania may be slightly skewed down by the sneak previews it had.

[MovieMan89]

56 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Cruella would be lucky to get on the top ten but this is a good point. Especially considering potential breakouts like West Side Story and Free Guy. 

The schedule is dead next holiday, especially for families. Granted things could still change, but as it is Cruella is the family film of Xmas by default. Prob 250ish.