The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[ThomasNicole]

At worse TS4 will make $ 130M OW and match the total of TS3 with a just ok 3.19x multiplier.

 

I mean, the time to make crazy predictions and tell reasons for underperformance is like 4 months ago.

[Sunny Max]

1 minute ago, ThomasNicole said:

At worse TS4 will make $ 130M OW and match the total of TS3 with a just ok 3.19x multiplier.

 

I mean, the time to make crazy predictions and tell reasons for underperformance is like 4 months ago.

Yes .. Great presales & huge buzz + no competition ... Movie will make $150 m atleast in OW ..

[justvision]

I guess for some people doing around 500M is a flop if they start up expecting 650M.

[Cap]

9 minutes ago, justvision said:

I guess for some people doing around 500M is a flop if they start up expecting 650M.

This honestly should be pinned/a rec post. 

[RamblinRed]

Frankly  I think there will be plenty of space in the market for all 3 of TS4, FFH and TLJ. By the time TLJ comes out everything currently in theaters except for Aladdin and SLOP2 will all be gone or one one small screen in a big mega-plex. 

 

There's been so many under performers that there is room for 3 tentpoles.

 

XDP is looking at a horrendous hold this weekend imo. It dropped 30% in Thur to 1.47. I don't even seeing it making it to 10M with that Thursday.

 

3.1M is not good, but given the numbers that were being thrown around 2 days ago it is a small win. It should at least be in the mid-20's if not a little higher.

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

7 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

Frankly  I think there will be plenty of space in the market for all 3 of TS4, FFH and TLJ. By the time TLJ comes out everything currently in theaters except for Aladdin and SLOP2 will all be gone or one one small screen in a big mega-plex. 

 

There's been so many under performers that there is room for 3 tentpoles.

 

XDP is looking at a horrendous hold this weekend imo. It dropped 30% in Thur to 1.47. I don't even seeing it making it to 10M with that Thursday.

 

3.1M is not good, but given the numbers that were being thrown around 2 days ago it is a small win. It should at least be in the mid-20's if not a little higher.

 

Idk, I feel like the hype from TLJ has probably died down a bit since Dec 2017. The movie has been on Netflix for a while now after all.

[RamblinRed]

9 minutes ago, Menor said:

Idk, I feel like the hype from TLJ has probably died down a bit since Dec 2017. The movie has been on Netflix for a while now after all.

Hey, its going to make a comeback 😉

Sorry, obviously meant TLK

[Cooper Legion]

It’s finally here. The logical conclusion. The final evolution of all that has come before.   

 

2019-06-14 15:00:24.986704 UTC
1	100%	Rocketman

[Cap]

16 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

It’s finally here. The logical conclusion. The final evolution of all that has come before.   

 

2019-06-14 15:00:24.986704 UTC
1	100%	Rocketman

I believe it, I mean at the Southern Maine Cinemagic IMAX, these are the tickets sold for the afternoon (2 to 3:30PM) showings:

7 Rocketman

6 MIB [IMAX]

2 Aladdin

2 Avengers: Endgame

2 Shaft

0 Ma

0 MIB [Standard]

0 Late Night

0 Dark Phoenix

[Porthos]

You know, I see a lot of people jumping on @Geo1500, but I'd like to take a slightly different tact.

 

Just what do you mean by "flopping" when it comes to TS4, Geo1500?

 

It might help some of us come to terms with your prediction if we knew just what you were thinking of as a range instead of a nebulous term like flop.

[FlashMaster659]

On 6/11/2019 at 5:27 PM, FlashMaster659 said:

 

Toy Story 4 - AMC Ontario Mills 30 (Thursday Night)

 

Fan Event

 

5:00 PM - 143/167

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:00 PM - 157/203

8:45 PM - 150/203

11:30 PM - 46/203

 

3D Dine-In Full Service

 

6:30 PM - 46/78

9:30 PM - 19/78

 

RealD 3D

 

7:45 PM - 15/167

10:30 PM - 0/167

 

2D

 

7:00 PM - 145/217

9:45 PM - 33/217

 

Total

 

754(+71)/1533 (49.2%)

 

Toy Story 4 - AMC Ontario Mills 30 (Thursday Night)

 

Fan Event

 

5:00 PM - 142/167

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:00 PM - 155/203

8:45 PM - 151/203

11:30 PM - 56/203

 

3D Dine-In Full Service

 

6:30 PM - 47/78

9:30 PM - 21/78

 

RealD 3D

 

7:45 PM - 20/167

10:30 PM - 0/167

 

2D

 

7:00 PM - 152/217

9:45 PM - 42/217

 

Total

 

786(+32)/1533 (51.3%)

[Menor the Destroyer]

Flop Story 4 vs I2 presales (note that FS4 had an extra hour in the "daily gains" comparison, but it shouldn't matter too much):

FS4 - Thurs: 6568 (+976), Fri: 6715 (+1111), Sat: 5060 (+735), Sun: 2848 (+471)

I2 - Thurs: 11163 (+1017), Fri: 9805 (+1342), Sat: 8111 (+779), Sun: 4614 (+483)

Now this data is skewed a little toward FS4 by the extra hour, but it does seem to be closing in on I2's pace. Still thinking an OW and total o/u the utter flop Finding Dory.

[Sunny Max]

6 minutes ago, Menor said:

Flop Story 4 vs I2 presales (note that FS4 had an extra hour in the "daily gains" comparison, but it shouldn't matter too much):

FS4 - Thurs: 6568 (+976), Fri: 6715 (+1111), Sat: 5060 (+735), Sun: 2848 (+471)

I2 - Thurs: 11163 (+1017), Fri: 9805 (+1342), Sat: 8111 (+779), Sun: 4614 (+483)

Now this data is skewed a little toward FS4 by the extra hour, but it does seem to be closing in on I2's pace. Still thinking an OW and total o/u the utter flop Finding Dory.

I2 insane ....any chance for TS4 to catch it .. ??

[narniadis]

52 minutes ago, Porthos said:

You know, I see a lot of people jumping on @Geo1500, but I'd like to take a slightly different tact.

 

Just what do you mean by "flopping" when it comes to TS4, Geo1500?

 

It might help some of us come to terms with your prediction if we knew just what you were thinking of as a range instead of a nebulous term like flop.

Porthos, I appreciate the way you handled this. I have refrained from commenting but thats from how this poster has behaved in the past. This poster doesnt take actual data as a point to look at and only his feelings 🤷‍♂️ learned my lesson on Godzilla and Aladdin with this fool. 

 

If by flop they mean under 200m then I want to know what they be smoking considering the thread they posted in. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

21 minutes ago, Sunny Max said:

I2 insane ....any chance for TS4 to catch it .. ??

Doubt it. But I2 was the Endgame-level event of Pixar movies so it's no big deal.

[john2000]

26 minutes ago, Sunny Max said:

I2 insane ....any chance for TS4 to catch it .. ??

maybe, we really dont know how the weekend will unfold

[john2000]

5 minutes ago, Menor said:

Doubt it. But I2 was the Endgame-level event of Pixar movies so it's no big deal.

we will see

[Sunny Max]

5 minutes ago, Menor said:

Doubt it. But I2 was the Endgame-level event of Pixar movies so it's no big deal.

hmm yeah I2 is untouchable ..

[Sunny Max]

Just now, john2000 said:

we will see

yeah still a week left ... 

 

lets see what happens ...

[Biggestgeekever]

Posted this in the weekend thread, but might as well do it here. Not certain if Deadline is talking about updated tracking beyond what we got two weeks ago, but they're still putting that $200M OW for Toy Story 4 out there.

 

Quote

Given the awesome 100% certified fresh RT score for Disney/Pixar’s Toy Story 4, that movie should wake everyone up next weekend, some predicting a possible $200M opening.

https://deadline.com/2019/06/men-in-black-international-shaft-secret-life-of-pets-2-weekend-box-office-1202632705/