The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[MattW]

https://variety.com/2019/film/box-office/box-office-jumanji-2-early-tracking-1203411581/

https://deadline.com/2019/11/jumanji-the-next-level-richard-jewell-black-christmas-box-office-projections-1202791972/

 

Jumanji tracking for 40-50, if it does 50 then it would match the first one's 5-day opening plus the pre-previews.  Same release date as Hobbit 2 which had a 3.5x multi, 50*3.5 = 175, maybe sidles up to 200 with a little extra summin-summin on both ends.  Seems like a reasonable upper bound to me.

[Joyous Legion]

Iirc, this is the first huge schoolday family animation of the big preview era. I’ll just say that I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s kind of a softcap on preview demand due to Friday morning, and we get a pretty shocking IM.

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1615

3153

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1638

3926

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
8077	61	22870	35.32%	9	182

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1615

3153

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1650

3926

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
8132	55	22870	35.56%	9	182

[narniadis]

9 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Iirc, this is the first huge schoolday family animation of the big preview era. I’ll just say that I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s kind of a softcap on preview demand due to Friday morning, and we get a pretty shocking IM.

Yup, the difference here with any other non summer animation is literally the fact nothing has opened over 70m before and that was back in 2004..... its a whole uncharted territory. 

[keysersoze123]

F2 Previews(Mid day thursday Update)

MTC1- 96697/433484(2498 shows) 1399443.45 1114418.22  +12354  
MTC2 -  97458/442997(2979 shows) 1163963.00 +13105 204PM

 

This is run rate for about 5 hrs 40 min for MTC1 and 6 hrs+ for MTC2. Increase is softer than what I thought will happen yesterday night. I am thinking its gonna stop around 230K across 2 MTC as late shows may not add much with walk-ins like what I saw for TLK.

 

I am thinking 8-9m previews at this point depending on how much kids tickets come into play plus average ticket price will be lower for this one not getting all PLF plus again kids tickets. I am also reducing my OW prediction to 130m. There is limit to PS multi and this is highly anticipated sequel.

 

it has been really weird PS run. Initial surge was good especially at MTC2 but show count was low. Lately show count increased but late PS surge has been way less than what I thought would happen. That shows some level of frontloading that female led blockbusters have.

 

[keysersoze123]

One point to note is I thought tracking services were ridiculous when they said that 150m cannot happen. While I wont say that is still impossible(it aint over until the fat lady sings or when we get saturday estimates), it does not sound ridiculous anymore.

[Menor the Destroyer]

13 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

F2 Previews(Mid day thursday Update)

MTC1- 96697/433484(2498 shows) 1399443.45 1114418.22  +12354  
MTC2 -  97458/442997(2979 shows) 1163963.00 +13105 204PM

 

This is run rate for about 5 hrs 40 min for MTC1 and 6 hrs+ for MTC2. Increase is softer than what I thought will happen yesterday night. I am thinking its gonna stop around 230K across 2 MTC as late shows may not add much with walk-ins like what I saw for TLK.

 

I am thinking 8-9m previews at this point depending on how much kids tickets come into play plus average ticket price will be lower for this one not getting all PLF plus again kids tickets. I am also reducing my OW prediction to 130m. There is limit to PS multi and this is highly anticipated sequel.

 

it has been really weird PS run. Initial surge was good especially at MTC2 but show count was low. Lately show count increased but late PS surge has been way less than what I thought would happen. That shows some level of frontloading that female led blockbusters have.

 

I'm skeptical of using the multi when we don't really have any good comps. That said the late increases have indeed been soft. Still FSS presales started so strong that even lower-than-expected late sales will yield big numbers. Like I find it hard to see Saturday even in the absolute worst case going below 50 million. I will probably lower to 150 from 165 though.

[XXR & Friends]

Frozen 2 -- AMC Willowbrook 24 -- 4:00pm CST -- Preview Day 

 

 

Dolby / IMAX: 4 showings, 274 tickets sold out of 712 seats available (38.48%)

Real 3D: 5 showings, 40 tickets sold out of 446 seats available (08.97%) 

Digital: 11 showings, 288 tickets sold out of 1051 seats available (27.40%)

 

TOTAL: 20 showings, 602 tickets sold out of 2209 seats available (27.25%)

 

PREVIEW PREDICTION: $9 million

 

Comps to Final Tracked Numbers

Aladdin = 267 sold @ 7:00pm - Wednesday 

Detective Pikachu = 280 sold @ 4:00pm - Wednesday 

Toy Story 4 = 822 sold @ 3:00pm - Thursday 

The Lion King = 1570 sold @ 4:00pm - Thursday 

Edited November 21, 2019 by VenomXXR

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, Menor said:

I'm skeptical of using the multi when we don't really have any good comps. That said the late increases have indeed been soft. Still FSS presales started so strong that even lower-than-expected late sales will yield big numbers. Like I find it hard to see Saturday even in the absolute worst case going below 50 million. I will probably lower to 150 from 165 though.

I am just looking at recent data. Plus dont forget average ticket price for saturday would be way lower as 1/3rd of PS so are for shows before noon. So if it finishes at 5.5m PS across these 2 chains sub 50m is possible. This looks like being more PS heavy than say TS4. I think TLK was also PS heavy. After previews we thought 210m can happen but it finished 10% below that number.

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I am just looking at recent data. Plus dont forget average ticket price for saturday would be way lower as 1/3rd of PS so are for shows before noon. So if it finishes at 5.5m PS across these 2 chains sub 50m is possible. This looks like being more PS heavy than say TS4. I think TLK was also PS heavy. After previews we thought 210m can happen but it finished 10% below that number.

Fair enough. Well 130 would still be a great result with Thanksgiving week coming up despite the final week of PS being a bit disappointing.

[keysersoze123]

Just now, Menor said:

Fair enough. Well 130 would still be a great result with Thanksgiving week coming up despite the final week of PS being a bit disappointing.

I could see a 30% drop next weekend if it ends up having softer than expected OW. IF WOM is very strong. As we know PS for next week is good. I will add day 4 on sunday and start tracking all the way till 2nd saturday by sunday night.

[Nova]

On 11/18/2019 at 7:28 AM, Nova said:

Frozen 2 Monday before release 

 

AMCa: 

Regular 142/142 ; 

3D: 46/142

 

AMCb: 

Regular: 118/142 ; 62/142 

3D: 86/142 ; 11/142 

 

Cinemark: 

Regular: 71/108 ; 65/95 ; 76/108 ; 16/95 ; 0/78 ; 4/108 ; 0/78 

3D: 36/100 ; 0/100 

XD: 73/132 ; 19/32 ; 8/132 

 

UA: 

Regular: 130/182 ; 85/102 ; 30/182 ; 18/102 

3D: 10/84 ; 2/84 

 

Two new showtimes were added to Cinemark for a total of 156 new seats. Thursday's update should see a good increase in new seats as I fully expect the AMC locations to add more for Thursday night. AMCa typically adds new showtimes either Tuesday night or Wednesday night before release. As I mentioned earlier, Saturday is bonkers at AMCa at the moment. I will take a look to see how Sunday is doing at that particular theater. I wish I tracked Incredibles 2 or Lion king to see where these numbers stand but regardless these are some strong numbers for previews regardless of the type of film it is. 

 

A total of 213 seats have been sold since last Thursday. 

 

Breakdown: 

Total: 1,108/2,962 or 37.4% 

Regular: 817/ 1,772 or 46.1%

3D: 191/ 794 or 24%

XD: 100/ 396  25.2% 

Frozen 2: 1 hour before previews start 

 

AMCa: 

Regular: 6PM 142/142 ; 7PM 106/142 ; 9:30PM 18/142 

3D: 8:45PM 54/142 

 

AMCb: 

Regular: 6PM 128/142 ; 8:45PM 116/142

3D: 7PM 116/142 ; 26/142 

 

UA: 

Regular: 6PM 167/182 ; 7PM 84/102 ; 7:30PM 54/74 ; 8:45PM 105/182 ; 9:45PM 23/102 ; 10:15PM 4/74

3D: 8PM 21/84 ; 10:15PM 17/84 

 

Cinemark:

Regular: 6:15PM 89/108 ; 6:45PM 76/95 ; 7PM 88/108 ; 7:30PM 83/108 ; 8:55PM 44/95 ; 9:25PM 9/78 ; 9:40PM 7/108 ; 10:20PM 11/78 

3D: 6:30PM 74/100 ; 9:10PM 9/100

XD: 6PM 93/132 ; 8:40PM 58/132 ; 11:20PM 10/132 

 

Totals: 

1,832/3,394 or 54% of seats sold 

 

Regular:

1,354/2,204 or 61.4% of seats sold 

 

3D:

317/794 or 39.9% of seats sold 

 

XD:

161/396 or 40.6% of seats sold 

 

4 regular (432 new seats added) showtimes were added locally since Monday. Not the jump in showtimes I wanted to see and like I mentioned earlier I am shocked its getting so few showtimes (especially at AMCa). So I'm really not sure what to make of any of the numbers. It's not like the demand isn't there. Its just theaters at least locally did not allocate enough showtimes during the in demand hours. We shall see if the demand is just gonna spill over the next several days. 

 

An additional 724 seats have been sold since Monday. 

[narniadis]

I will find it ironic if those of us on the lower end are right, but not for the reasons we thought. I mean, still sticking to the 140m area that I have been in a long time but over the summer I think it was, the warnings about dont get crazy were brushed aside by the uber fans 😄 gonna be TS4 2.0 with some people on this board if the 130 arena is accurate, never mind what tracking has shown and didnt change. 

[keysersoze123]

MTC1 run rate is around 3800 tickets per hour over past 2 hours as shows have started in east coast. 

 

Initial few shows at Emp 25/ls13

LS13 - 106/342(2D)

EMP25 - 198/225(Dolby), 39/142(2D), 220/303(LieMax)

 

May be it has late surge to take final number to 250K between 2 chains to ensure 9m previews. 

[Cap]

32 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

LS13 - 106/342(2D)

Thank you!  I totally forget this started at six and needed this, LOL

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 hour ago, narniadis said:

I will find it ironic if those of us on the lower end are right, but not for the reasons we thought. I mean, still sticking to the 140m area that I have been in a long time but over the summer I think it was, the warnings about dont get crazy were brushed aside by the uber fans 😄 gonna be TS4 2.0 with some people on this board if the 130 arena is accurate, never mind what tracking has shown and didnt change. 

This has been a much weirder run than TS4 though. That one was quite predictable as after the initial surge faded it quickly dropped and stayed at 2/3 of I2. F2 has been all over the place with the weird Cinemark/AMC ratios, strange late slowdown, unusual sales distribution etc.

Edited November 22, 2019 by Menor

[Eric is Quiet]

21 Bridges Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	30	582	4,036	14.42%

 

 

Comp

0.785x of Gemini Man (1.26M)

0.860x of Black and Blue (580K)

1.178x of Harriet (707K)

 

I don't think the Gemini Man one is happening. But I think the other numbers are respectable enough. Could lead to the movie hitting double digits.

[Inceptionzq]

On 11/20/2019 at 3:56 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Frozen 2 Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

392

1798

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

497

2309

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2391	323	13675	17.48%	9	97

 

Showings added: 19

Seats added: 1183

 

Lion King comp: 10.76M

Frozen 2 Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

556

1798

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

640

2309

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
3502	1111	13910	25.18%	9	101

 

Lion King comp: 10.62M

Abominable comp: 9.77M

Addams Family comp: 10.16M

Maleficent comp: 9.93M

 

Because TLK was during the Summer, it probably makes sense to eliminate that comp and focus more on the other 3. Using the average of those, I get 9.95M. The late walkups for this will probably be slightly better than Abominable and Maleficent, but not Addams Family since that started at 4. So, I'll go with 10.1M

[Eric is Quiet]

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	25	237	3,464	6.84%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 106

 

Comp

0.125x of Once Upon (723K)

2.756x of Racing in Rain (1.24M)

0.386x of Downton Abbey (810K)

1.370x of Last Christmas (788K)

0.594x of Ford v Ferrari (1.25M)

 

Guess this would indicate an opening in the mid-teens. Fine enough I suppose. I would say I'd be a touch disappointed, considering the initial hype, but then I'd be a hypocrite since I'm going to chastise CJohn all weekend, so....

[Cap]

I love how I am at my theater enough they just told me how many tickets they sold tonight 😂😂😂