The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, PKMLover said:

Sad that if it is 9-10m previews. It can not manage more than x15 internal multi to make 150m+ ow.

Finding Dory did 15x in the summer, older comp but not so old as to be worthless. 

[Legion Again]

If previews were 9 I wouldn’t be at all surprised by a 17 internal multiplier.

[keysersoze123]

Dont forget saturday PS is almost 3x previews PS. So 15x previews can definitely happen. This is unprecedented for me and so I would like to confirm on friday where the internal multi could end.

[charlie Jatinder]

Damn Saturday is absolute beast mode at $15mn Approx. The best I have seen since Endgame. Let's say it increase $3mn today, can easily increase $7-10mn on Friday. I don't see it falling short of $25mn final.

Edited November 21, 2019 by Jedi Jat

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

Damn Saturday is absolute beast mode at $15mn Approx. The best I have seen since Endgame. Let's say it increase $3mn today, can easily increase $7-10mn on Friday. I don't see it falling short of $25mn final.

Based on my data AMC+ CIN is around 3.7m on saturday. Average price will be further lower if you look at how many tickets are sold pre-noon when ticket prices really tank. Currently almost 1/3rd of tickets are for pre-noon shows. 

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

Based on my data AMC+ CIN is around 3.7m on saturday. Average price will be further lower if you look at how many tickets are sold pre-noon when ticket prices really tank. Currently almost 1/3rd of tickets are for pre-noon shows. 

I was taking 14 ATP for AMC and 11 for Cinemark, that was giving me 1mn more. 

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

I was taking 14 ATP for AMC and 11 for Cinemark, that was giving me 1mn more. 

I literarily take the ticket price for the show and multiply by tickets sold. 

AMC D2 - overall 6410 shows 199196/1159565 2227311.13 1953082.12 pre noon 1543 shows 71574/243211 470623.53 469663.29 post 6PM 2635 shows 47417/501267 682793.96 563279.00  +26272

CIN D2 - overall 6400 shows 181321/986569 1752829.00 pre noon 1422 shows 58771/214387 471267.00 post 6PM 2286 shows 29812/360424 359555.00 +23438 

 

Bolded data are $value. I did capture both Adult and Child ticket values for AMC(if it was 100% adult or 100% child). For this movie I would assume 50% kid tickets. I have seen one parent bringing multiple kids to movie when I saw TS4. art 

 

CIN is just $value if its 100%adults. I would probably reduce it by 7% to account for kids tickets. 

 

 

 

Edited November 21, 2019 by keysersoze123

[keysersoze123]

if you look at smaller chains like Alamo, Marcus etc, their plexes are outside mega cities where average ticket prices are way lower. For example pre-noon shows in some states are as low as $4 !!!!!!! So overall % of AMC/CIN tend to be higher. Last week Ford sold like 777K(assuming 100% adults) at 2 chains for previews and national number was 2.1m. Terminator did 900K at 2 chains and previews was 2.4m. 

 

So for F2 the domination of these 2 chains would be even more. I am thinking 10m national sales for saturday for now. You can confirm on saturday morning. i will update friday night my projections. 

[lockmom]

57 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dont forget saturday PS is almost 3x previews PS. So 15x previews can definitely happen. This is unprecedented for me and so I would like to confirm on friday where the internal multi could end.

When can I get accurate data for previews, Friday morning?

[keysersoze123]

8 minutes ago, lockmom said:

When can I get accurate data for previews, Friday morning?

I will post final update around 10PM PST. But that is raw data. Actual previews number we will get it around morning Friday.

 

Edit: Deadline will put some number tomorrow evening but it wont be accurate that early.

Edited November 21, 2019 by keysersoze123

[lockmom]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I will post final update around 10PM PST. But that is raw data. Actual previews number we will get it around morning Friday.

 

Edit: Deadline will put some number tomorrow evening but it wont be accurate that early.

thanks

[FlashMaster659]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Inland Empire Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-29 Days

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Seats Left	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	256	13052	53600	40548	24.35%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 124

[Cap]

FROZEN II

 

v T-1 Sales Comps
Movie	Sold	%	Est
Frozen II
Cinemagic	143	--	--
Toy Story 4	122	117.21%	14.07M
The Lion King	419	34.12%	7.85M
Average:			10.96M

 

I'm not comping out LS13 for this because the screens and numbers are so low.  Previews only has One 9:30PM IMAX.  No Dolbys.  None of the bells and whistles that TS4 or TLK got.  

 

And since it's backloading, I pulled up my End Game comps for giggles.  Note: it's T-1 Day Frozen v Final AEG and my place is Walk Up Heavy.  But it does support the Saturday is THE DAY theory.

 

SMCM IMAX SCREEN	FROZEN II	ENDGAME	ESTIMATE
Friday	199	514	37.72M
Saturday	226	536	46.07M
Sunday	73	431	15.31M

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, captainwondyful said:

FROZEN II

 

v T-1 Sales Comps
Movie	Sold	%	Est
Frozen II
Cinemagic	143	--	--
Toy Story 4	122	117.21%	14.07M
The Lion King	419	34.12%	7.85M
Average:			10.96M

 

I'm not comping out LS13 for this because the screens and numbers are so low.  Previews only has One 9:30PM IMAX.  No Dolbys.  None of the bells and whistles that TS4 or TLK got.  

 

And since it's backloading, I pulled up my End Game comps for giggles.  Note: it's T-1 Day Frozen v Final AEG and my place is Walk Up Heavy.  But it does support the Saturday is THE DAY theory.

 

SMCM IMAX SCREEN	FROZEN II	ENDGAME	ESTIMATE
Friday	199	514	37.72M
Saturday	226	536	46.07M
Sunday	73	431	15.31M

I can provide Empire/LS data. But as you say the comparitive projections are ridiculous. it wont go that low. But I have never known blocbuster movies to underperform in these plexes !!!! BTW Charlie's Angel's is having 3 of the 5 Dolby shows tomorrow at LS13 !!! other 2 are for Ford. Thankfully on friday Ford takes over completely. But its really weird F2 did not get the screen. That screen is at 26.50 per ticket !!!!

[Cap]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

BTW Charlie's Angel's is having 3 of the 5 Dolby shows tomorrow at LS13 !!!

I shouldn't pit women against each other but I'm so offended by this.  LOL.  November OW Records are on the line because of Charlie's Angels floppage?  So rude.  

 

 

[Porthos]

Frozen 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 day and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	160	14853	18846	3993	21.19%

 

Total Showings Removed Today	1
Total Seats Removed Today	199

 

Total Seats Sold Today

472

 

T-1 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts / Shows	Seats Left / Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
Aladdin	152.95		580	2506		0/117	11420/13926	18.00%		10.71m
TS4	83.38		816	4597		0/149	12268/16865	27.26%		10.00m
TLK	47.69		1208	8038		0/287	19742/27780	28.93%		10.96m
Frozen 2 (adj)	n/a		449	3833		0/160	12685/16518	23.20%		n/a

PRE-SALES NOTE: Aladdin and The Lion King both had 25 days of pre-sales and Toy Story 4 had 24 days of pre-sales.  In comparison Frozen 2 had 18 days of pre-sales. 

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  Frozen 2 (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for all of the movies in that stat block.

 

===

 

Not a good day at all for the day before previews.  No way to even sugar coat it.  In fact, even worse when family films are taken into the equation (even Pika Pika outsold Frozen 2 on an adjusted basis today [472 v 449]).

 

I'm not sure exactly what is going on.  Sacramento was probably over-performing when compared to @keysersoze123's national look and is now lining up with his national numbers.  Or it could be part of a larger sign (haven't seen other numbers tonight).

 

Regardless, the trendline is absolutely in the wrong direction for 10m+.  

 

Now I haven't looked at Sat locally, as I simply don't have the time or comps.  Regardless, buckle in for a bumpy weekend folks!

Edited November 21, 2019 by Porthos

[Porthos]

I have TROS data but as one might tell, I'm running super late tonight.  I'll have time to post it in a couple of hours before I turn in for the night.

[FlashMaster659]

Frozen II Inland Empire Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 Day

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Seats Left	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	159	4208	35346	31138	11.91%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 5

Total Seats Added Today: 1399

Total Seats Sold Today: 670

[lockmom]

35 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Frozen 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 day and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	160	14853	18846	3993	21.19%

 

Total Showings Removed Today	1
Total Seats Removed Today	199

 

Total Seats Sold Today

472

 

T-1 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts / Shows	Seats Left / Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
Aladdin	152.95		580	2506		0/117	11420/13926	18.00%		10.71m
TS4	83.38		816	4597		0/149	12268/16865	27.26%		10.00m
TLK	47.69		1208	8038		0/287	19742/27780	28.93%		10.96m
Frozen 2 (adj)	n/a		449	3833		0/160	12685/16518	23.20%		n/a

PRE-SALES NOTE: Aladdin and The Lion King both had 25 days of pre-sales and Toy Story 4 had 24 days of pre-sales.  In comparison Frozen 2 had 18 days of pre-sales. 

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  Frozen 2 (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for all of the movies in that stat block.

 

===

 

Not a good day at all for the day before previews.  No way to even sugar coat it.  In fact, even worse when family films are taken into the equation (even Pika Pika outsold Frozen 2 on an adjusted basis today [472 v 449]).

 

I'm not sure exactly what is going on.  Sacramento was probably over-performing when compared to @keysersoze123's national look and is now lining up with his national numbers.  Or it could be part of a larger sign (haven't seen other numbers tonight).

 

Regardless, the trendline is absolutely in the wrong direction for 10m+.  

 

Now I haven't looked at Sat locally, as I simply don't have the time or comps.  Regardless, buckle in for a bumpy weekend folks!

It seems appropriate that the target of f2 should be the original ………

[Porthos]

The Rise of Skywalker Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-29 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	205	11787	24152	12365	51.20%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

76

 

T-29 Adjusted Comp #1 (EXTREMELY LOL - DON'T USE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING)

	%		Sold T-29	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
CM	392.53		30	3011		2/81	7605/10616	28.36%		81.25m
TROS (adj)	n/a		76	11819		2/205	11071/22890	51.63%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Captain Marvel.

 

T-29 Adjusted Comp #2 (VERY LOL - DON'T USE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING)

	%		Sold T-29	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
IW	166.13		66	6363		1/114	4648/11011	57.79%		64.79m
TROS (adj)	n/a		67	10571		2/205	8200/18771	56.32%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Infinity War.

PRE-SALES NOTE:  TROS had 60 days of pre-sales while Infinity War had 42 days of pre-sales.

 

---

Comps so far off of Final Totals of:

	%		Final Sold		TROS Sold		Comp
IW	69.73		15159		10571		27.20m
DP2	129.98		8133		10571		24.18m
Solo	182.60		5789		10571		25.75m
JW:FK	169.73		6228		10571		25.97m
AM&tW	229.55		4605		10571		26.40m
Venom	244.83		4493		11000		24.48m
CM	112.00		10553		11819		23.18m
EG	44.34		26655		11819		26.60m
TLK	107.67		10977		11819		24.76m
It 2	218.50		5659		12365		22.94m
AVG							25.15m

NOTE: FINAL SOLD is the amount of tickets sold at stop of tracking for the given movie and TROS SOLD is the amount of tickets sold so far at the same theaters I had tracking info for the movie in question.

Edited November 21, 2019 by Porthos