The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[a2k]

10 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Final Final update

F2 finished at 246.5K with MTC2 slightly edging out MTC1. I would still stick to 8.5-9m for previews. Weird that there is no Deadline article for this. TS4 had one and So did TLK.

[keysersoze123]

 

F2 OD PS

MTC1- overall 5914 shows 220178/1101171 3003448.15 2468005.01 post 6PM 2672 shows 128686/508282 1871708.41 1499870.96 715AM
MTC2- overall 6506 shows 229536/996586 2348448.00 post 6PM 2347 shows 112797/366052 1335627.00  745AM

 

@Menor My data is as of 745AM this morning. it moved 10% over the night. I would say 80% of TLK Opening friday would be the best case scenario. But this has been more frontloaded at least from PS perspective. So could drop down to 75%.

 

On previews, it seems its easier to predict big openers when you have so much data 🙂

 

I guess Sacremento did over perform @Porthos

[Sunny Max]

10 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Final Final update

F2 finished at 246.5K with MTC2 slightly edging out MTC1. I would still stick to 8.5-9m for previews. Weird that there is no Deadline article for this. TS4 had one and So did TLK.

Spot on prediction ... 

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

F2 OD PS

MTC1- overall 5914 shows 220178/1101171 3003448.15 2468005.01 post 6PM 2672 shows 128686/508282 1871708.41 1499870.96 715AM
MTC2- overall 6506 shows 229536/996586 2348448.00 post 6PM 2347 shows 112797/366052 1335627.00  745AM

 

@Menor My data is as of 745AM this morning. it moved 10% over the night. I would say 80% of TLK Opening friday would be the best case scenario. But this has been more frontloaded at least from PS perspective. So could drop down to 75%.

 

On previews, it seems its easier to predict big openers when you have so much data 🙂

 

I guess Sacremento did over perform @Porthos

Yeah 75-80% of TLK's Friday seems a good range. That will still be good for 150+ weekend. From your data it seems that PS should have ended up right in the expected 15 million range or pretty close at least.

[PKMLover]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

F2 OD PS

MTC1- overall 5914 shows 220178/1101171 3003448.15 2468005.01 post 6PM 2672 shows 128686/508282 1871708.41 1499870.96 715AM
MTC2- overall 6506 shows 229536/996586 2348448.00 post 6PM 2347 shows 112797/366052 1335627.00  745AM

 

@Menor My data is as of 745AM this morning. it moved 10% over the night. I would say 80% of TLK Opening friday would be the best case scenario. But this has been more frontloaded at least from PS perspective. So could drop down to 75%.

 

On previews, it seems its easier to predict big openers when you have so much data 🙂

 

I guess Sacremento did over perform @Porthos

75%-80% of the Lion King pure friday ($55M) can mean $41M to $44M ????

[Sunny Max]

4 minutes ago, PKMLover said:

75%-80% of the Lion King pure friday ($55M) can mean $41M to $44M ????

Yes with previews easily $50 M+ on Day 1 for Frozen II ... Solid start i would say .

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 minutes ago, PKMLover said:

75%-80% of the Lion King pure friday ($55M) can mean $41M to $44M ????

Yeah something like that. Given that @keysersoze123 data implies 15 million nationwide presales, if it plays like I2 or TS4 it gets 45 million but if it's a bit more PS heavy more like $40 million.

[keysersoze123]

One thing we can confirm is all the fandango/atom reports are marketing bullshit. Ignore it when projecting your numbers. better to project from data you have.

[charlie Jatinder]

10 minutes ago, Menor said:

Yeah something like that. Given that @keysersoze123 data implies 15 million nationwide presales, if it plays like I2 or TS4 it gets 45 million but if it's a bit more PS heavy more like $40 million.

pre-sales par I2.

Edited November 22, 2019 by Jedi Jat

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, Jedi Jat said:

pre-sales over I2.

Holy shit. AMC/Cin ratio must be much lower than usual.

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, Jedi Jat said:

pre-sales over I2.

But this wont play anything like I2. that was 4-quad. This would be family/female heavy for sure. We will know for sure later today.

[PKMLover]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

But this wont play anything like I2. that was 4-quad. This would be family/female heavy for sure. We will know for sure later today.

Were I2 and TS4 are PS heavy moviesmmm

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

But this wont play anything like I2. that was 4-quad. This would be family/female heavy for sure. We will know for sure later today.

I2 PS was $18 million, same as Captain Marvel. So $40 million true Friday should be locked as I don't see any reason why this would be more presale heavy than one of the most hyped MCU films. And really it should go higher than that.

 

Edit: not actually the same as Captain Marvel

Edited November 22, 2019 by Menor

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, Menor said:

same as Captain Marvel

Cap Marvel was bigger.

[keysersoze123]

Just now, Menor said:

I2 PS was $18 million, same as Captain Marvel. So $40 million true Friday should be locked as I don't see any reason why this would be more presale heavy than one of the most hyped MCU films. And really it should go higher than that.

yes. could happen. I want to see how things go this evening. But things are looking good. it has huge showcount and PS is good as well. Just all about walkins now.

[Menor the Destroyer]

Just now, Jedi Jat said:

Cap Marvel was bigger.

Ah ok. Was just going off of what I remembered from your past posts.

[keysersoze123]

Just now, Jedi Jat said:

Cap Marvel was bigger.

can you do a % comparison between all these movies. I2, TS4, TLK and CM.

 

 

[Legion Again]

24 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I would say 80% of TLK Opening friday would be the best case scenario. But this has been more frontloaded at least from PS perspective. So could drop down to 75%.

True Fri to True Fri comp, right? 80% would be like a 152+ weekend, 75% 143+...

[keysersoze123]

Just now, Thanos Legion said:

True Fri to True Fri comp, right? 80% would be like a 152+ weekend, 75% 143+...

should be right. Let us see how things go. I will update OD ticket sales as I get them.

[PKMLover]

6 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

True Fri to True Fri comp, right? 80% would be like a 152+ weekend, 75% 143+...

What can be the Saturday jump and Sunday drop in those cases?