The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

The Rise of Skywalker Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-26 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	205	11574	24152	12578	52.08%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

77

 

T-26 Adjusted Comp #1 (EXTREMELY LOL - DON'T USE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING)

	%		Sold T-26	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
CM	383.82		32	3133		2/81	7483/10616	29.51%		79.45m
TROS (adj)	n/a		75	12025		2/205	10865/22890	52.53%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Captain Marvel.

 

T-26 Adjusted Comp #2 (VERY LOL - DON'T USE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING)

	%		Sold T-26	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
IW	163.46		74	6596		1/116	4529/11125	59.29%		63.75m
TROS (adj)	n/a		57	10738		2/205	8033/18771	57.21%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Infinity War.

PRE-SALES NOTE:  TROS had 60 days of pre-sales while Infinity War had 42 days of pre-sales.

 

---

Comps so far off of Final Totals of:

	%		Final Sold		TROS Sold		Comp
IW	70.84		15159		10738		27.63m
DP2	132.03		8133		10738		24.56m
Solo	185.49		5789		10738		26.15m
JW:FK	172.41		6228		10738		26.38m
AM&tW	233.18		4605		10738		26.82m
Venom	249.05		4493		11190		24.91m
CM	113.95		10553		12025		23.59m
EG	45.11		26655		12025		27.07m
TLK	109.55		10977		12025		25.20m
It 2	222.27		5659		12578		23.34m
AVG							25.56m

NOTE: FINAL SOLD is the amount of tickets sold at stop of tracking for the given movie and TROS SOLD is the amount of tickets sold so far at the same theaters I had tracking info for the movie in question.

[JB33]

So are any limited releases expanding wide over Thanksgiving, either on Wednesday or Friday? For the first time in awhile there aren't many candidates to do so Judy, Parasite, Jojo Rabbit and The Lighthouse already got wide releases. Dark Waters is already confirmed to go wide on December 6. That leaves, what? Waves and perhaps Honey Boy?

[jedijake]

8 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Unfortunately its taking too long to get the data and so I have only partial for MTC1. I will update as I have them. that will probably be tomorrow.

 

SW9

MTC1 Prev - overall 5069 shows 287631/847172 4307219.72 +13182
MTC1 OD-  overall 5324 shows 187062/1088368 2970455.27 post 6PM 2453 shows 113422/503169 1911199.54 +21775
MTC1 D2 - overall 5265 shows 151475/1078244 2266066.97 post 6PM 2447 shows 60107/501997 1038538.70 +20439

 

Good to see increases for OD and saturday this early.

So I can be clear about understanding, what are the last large numbers in each line? (4307219.72 +13192)

 

Also, are there specific theater chains for MTC1, MTC2, etc?

 

Thanks!

[cdsacken]

13 hours ago, Porthos said:

The Rise of Skywalker Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-26 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	205	11574	24152	12578	52.08%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

77

 

T-26 Adjusted Comp #1 (EXTREMELY LOL - DON'T USE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING)

	%		Sold T-26	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
CM	383.82		32	3133		2/81	7483/10616	29.51%		79.45m
TROS (adj)	n/a		75	12025		2/205	10865/22890	52.53%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Captain Marvel.

 

T-26 Adjusted Comp #2 (VERY LOL - DON'T USE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING)

	%		Sold T-26	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
IW	163.46		74	6596		1/116	4529/11125	59.29%		63.75m
TROS (adj)	n/a		57	10738		2/205	8033/18771	57.21%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Infinity War.

PRE-SALES NOTE:  TROS had 60 days of pre-sales while Infinity War had 42 days of pre-sales.

 

---

Comps so far off of Final Totals of:

	%		Final Sold		TROS Sold		Comp
IW	70.84		15159		10738		27.63m
DP2	132.03		8133		10738		24.56m
Solo	185.49		5789		10738		26.15m
JW:FK	172.41		6228		10738		26.38m
AM&tW	233.18		4605		10738		26.82m
Venom	249.05		4493		11190		24.91m
CM	113.95		10553		12025		23.59m
EG	45.11		26655		12025		27.07m
TLK	109.55		10977		12025		25.20m
It 2	222.27		5659		12578		23.34m
AVG							25.56m

NOTE: FINAL SOLD is the amount of tickets sold at stop of tracking for the given movie and TROS SOLD is the amount of tickets sold so far at the same theaters I had tracking info for the movie in question.

Jeez between you and Keysersoze this tracking is outrageous. The variety and number of comps you have is unbelievable. I'm sure one or both of you will nail the preview numbers for this which would be incredibly hard for anyone to do. 

Edited November 24, 2019 by cdsacken

[FlashMaster659]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Inland Empire Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-26 Days

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Seats Left	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	256	13291	53600	40309	24.80%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 96

[filmlover]

12 hours ago, JB33 said:

So are any limited releases expanding wide over Thanksgiving, either on Wednesday or Friday? For the first time in awhile there aren't many candidates to do so Judy, Parasite, Jojo Rabbit and The Lighthouse already got wide releases. Dark Waters is already confirmed to go wide on December 6. That leaves, what? Waves and perhaps Honey Boy?

Doesn't seem like it. Waves only posted an $8K PTA from 21 theaters this weekend so they'll continue slowly rolling that one out until it peters out completely. Same with Honey Boy, which is supposedly going "wide" on December 6 as well.

[Marek the Jedi]

21 hours ago, jedijake said:

Is TROS really headed for a $50 million preview? I'd say it looks more like $35 million? Are pre-sales REALLY going to heat up that much? I'd think that Frozen 2 would have taught us a lesson at this point.

 

I am sure previews will be over $40 mil., from all comps I see maybe even from 44 to 46mil, if not more, but there are boxoffice masters we can ask

but I am SW optimist  what do you think?

@Porthos, @Thanos Legion, @keysersoze123, @Inceptionzq

[keysersoze123]

4 minutes ago, Marek the Jedi said:

I am sure previews will be over $40 mil., from all comps I see maybe even from 44 to 46mil, if not more, but there are boxoffice masters we can ask

but I am SW optimist  what do you think?

@Porthos, @Thanos Legion, @keysersoze123, @Inceptionzq

I am thinking 50m previews for now. But it will be easier to close in in the final week. Let us next see how reviews go. JJ's movies are generally well reviewed.

[Marek the Jedi]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I am thinking 50m previews for now. But it will be easier to close in in the final week. Let us next see how reviews go. JJ's movies are generally well reviewed.

50m will do wonders for OW  much easier to top TLJ!

 

thanx keysersoze123!
Marek

[Inceptionzq]

34 minutes ago, Marek the Jedi said:

I am sure previews will be over $40 mil., from all comps I see maybe even from 44 to 46mil, if not more, but there are boxoffice masters we can ask

but I am SW optimist  what do you think?

@Porthos, @Thanos Legion, @keysersoze123, @Inceptionzq

Well this kind of tracking is new territory for me, so I’m not exactly sure how it will behave from here on out. I don’t think it will get close to doubling the ticket count from here on out, but let’s say it increases by 80%. That would give me a range of 37.8M-45M with some comps. Frozen 2 is the low end and TLK is the high end. And with the way Frozen 2 overperformed here, the low end is probably a low ball. So let’s say it’s actually 39M(which still might be a low ball). The median of the range is 42M. The average of the comps is 41.5M. So yeah, I think this is definitely clearing 40M. And personally I’m trusting TLK comp the most, which would give TLJ previews. I guess rn I’ll go with 41-47M for the range.

Edited November 24, 2019 by Inceptionzq

[Porthos]

27 minutes ago, Marek the Jedi said:

I am sure previews will be over $40 mil., from all comps I see maybe even from 44 to 46mil, if not more, but there are boxoffice masters we can ask

but I am SW optimist  what do you think?

@Porthos, @Thanos Legion, @keysersoze123, @Inceptionzq

I mean, I'm encouraged by its relative strength in this marathon stage.  At the same time, Sacto and other local markets could be over-performing.

 

Still, I'm encouraged that in the last couple of days the least-desirable seats have started to sell in fits and starts.  Post 10pm seats are starting to pick up, and more importantly for sellouts, the aisle seats and the front row seats for the 6pm/7pm shows are starting to sell sporadically in fits and starts at the best theaters in town.  Means that the resistance to grabby the crappy seats is starting to weaken.

 

As for a specific number this far out?  Not my bag.   Or as someone might say:

 

 

A lot might depend on buzz and reviews.  Think Mando (and to a degree Fallen Order) is putting SW fans in a pretty good headspace though, so that certainly helps.

[Marek the Jedi]

ok a range then  hehe just for fun  or when you wish to be for previews  

[JB33]

9 minutes ago, Marek the Jedi said:

ok a range then  hehe just for fun  or when you wish to be for previews  

@Porthos is the one to go to for multis so you're asking the right person!

 

 

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, JB33 said:

@Porthos is the one to go to for multis so you're asking the right person!

 

 

[Legion Again]

I'm expecting 40ish atm, but with 4 weeks to go I could really see anywhere from like 35-52. I think The Mandalorian is going to wnd up being worth a couple mil boost, though pretty untestable hypothesis.

Edited November 24, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[JB33]

6 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I don't know what you're talking about....

 

On another point, I'm trying to remember....has Sacto overperformed for the last two Star Wars saga films? Wait, I guess you weren't here tracking TFA. What about Rogue One and TLJ? Or is Sacto usually pretty in line with the final result?

[JB33]

11 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

I'm expecting 40ish atm, but with 4 weeks to go I could really see anywhere from like 35-52. I think The Mandalorian is going to wnd up being worth a couple mil boost, though pretty untestable hypothesis.

I'm thrilled Mando is getting such good reception. I knew it was too early to spell Star Wars doom after TLJ and Solo.

[Porthos]

36 minutes ago, JB33 said:

I don't know what you're talking about....

Oh, I thought you were riffing on my reluctance to discuss internal multis, as you noted a couple of days ago.  Apologies if that wasn't the case.

Quote

 

On another point, I'm trying to remember....has Sacto overperformed for the last two Star Wars saga films? Wait, I guess you weren't here tracking TFA. What about Rogue One and TLJ? Or is Sacto usually pretty in line with the final result?

No clue whatsoever.  I only kept sellout data for R1/TLJ so I have no real frame of reference on how they really did.  Solo did seem to come in line with the nation though.  More or less, at least. 

 

I can compare contrast sellout data for both of those films when TROS gets closer to release.  But even there, the sheer increase in showtimes locally is gonna make that difficult (more on that point closer to release).

Edited November 24, 2019 by Porthos

[Inceptionzq]

On 11/23/2019 at 3:15 PM, Inceptionzq said:

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1623

3153

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1668

3926

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
8255	74	22870	36.10%	9	182

 

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1626

3153

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1676

3926

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
8301	46	22870	36.30%	9	182

[filmlover]

Just realized we'll be getting Star Wars tracking this week, which means we'll also be getting our first taste of CATS tracking. Gotta say I'm more intrigued to see those tracking numbers than I am about Star Wars considering how much it could go either way.