The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Yandereprime101189]

I'd say SW9 isn't going to outperform IW's opening weekend, but I wouldn't be surprised if it did. 

[TalismanRing]

12 minutes ago, Yandereprime101189 said:

I'd say SW9 isn't going to outperform IW's opening weekend, but I wouldn't be surprised if it did. 

I'd be shocked.   Nothing so far indicates it will be bigger than TFA, let alone AIW.  It would need to do $62m+ in previews - bigger than AEG.

 

[Yandereprime101189]

3 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

I'd be shocked.   Nothing so far indicates it will be bigger than TFA, let alone AIW.  It would need to do $62m+ in previews - bigger than AEG.

 

I honestly don't really believe it will outdo Infinity War but I do think it will probably be on par with or make more than Last Jedi.

 

It's also going to be the final Star Wars film for a long time and is being advertised as the end of the Skywalker saga. That's going to end up counting for something despite some of the internet's perceived reaction of what the general public thought of Last Jedi.

[ThomasNicole]

I’m pretty sure it won’t come Close to IW

 

SW always was presale driven so it should be easy to predict.

 

Presales seems to be slighty better than TLJ, that’s 2 years ago, but at The same time since SW was always big on presales, this probably shouldn’t do much difference.

 

I’m expecting 42-45M on previews with a slighty lower multi, let’s say 4.55x. So $ 190-205M OW

 

I think This is very reasonable, it’s not overestimating but it’s not underestimating either (Like some people here Love to do). I do think TLJ And Solo will impact, unlike The expected, This won’t grow on OW. But at the same time GP And a good portion of fans don’t care about these bullshits, so the impact Will not be so big.

 

Legs though i think 3.2-3.4x is very possible considering TROS will probably be a crowdpleaser unlike TLJ.

[Legion Again]

TROS opening above TFA would shock me. The reception to TLJ was mixed, whatever you may think of the movie personally. Not awful, not bad in opinion of median moviegoing, but the legs bore out a substantial contingent of dissatisfied frequent customers of SW movies.    
 

Now there’s a perfectly good chance that IX will be loved, and all the “never seeing another SW movie” people go see it (as is often the outcome of such statements). But I don’t honk they’ll be doing it en masse on OW, I think in such a scenario they show up in days 5-50 as WOM spreads.     
 

With the finale factor and Mandalorian generating franchise goodwill I can see opening above TLJ (pretty big!). With the “sequel to divisive entry” factor and other currently available info just can’t see my way to opening above TFA.

Edited November 24, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[JB33]

For the "won't open over TFA/IW crowd" (of which I am a part), on the other hand what do you think the odds are of it opening above TLJ? I see @ThomasNicole has proposed a 190-205 range. What about the rest of you?

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, JB33 said:

For the "won't open over TFA/IW crowd" (of which I am a part), on the other hand what do you think the odds are of it opening above TLJ? I see @ThomasNicole has proposed a 190-205 range. What about the rest of you?

180-220 but it's a bit early to say. To me buzz seems a tad bit lower than TLJ. 

[Knights of Ren]

I see TROS opening pretty much in line with TLJ around $220M.  Would be pretty shocked if it doesn’t have improved legs, should be “satisfying”.  My worst case and best case scenario would probably be 190/240.

 

I think if Rogue One and Solo never came out, both TLJ and TROS would both open bigger.  (Has nothing to do with quality of either film).  These things being events every two years would put more asses in seats OW. 

Edited November 24, 2019 by Knights of Ren

[Legion Again]

8 minutes ago, JB33 said:

For the "won't open over TFA/IW crowd" (of which I am a part), on the other hand what do you think the odds are of it opening above TLJ? I see @ThomasNicole has proposed a 190-205 range. What about the rest of you?

Idno, it’s early. 30%?

[Knights of Ren]

45% chance of opening above TLJ

85% chance of finishing above TLJ

[Inceptionzq]

I’m kinda skeptical on it opening above TLJ, even if it matches or slightly beats TLJ’s Thursday previews. I think that the IM will be worse due to travel. So, travelers might opt to wait until the weekdays, especially Christmas, to go see it. But it could just end up being a little more backloaded with Friday and Saturday being slightly depressed, and Sunday being slightly boosted.

[JB33]

Started giving reacts to everyone who replied, then ran out. Thanks to the rest of you for your answers.

 

To your point @Inceptionzq re: travel days, December is a funny month for box office isn't it? Especially the latter half (Christmas time). The calendar configuration is at its most crucial for trackers and enthusiasts during that time of the year. You can't just look back at last year's trends because the calendar being off by one day makes all the difference in the world; we have to look at the last year the calendar was the same. 

 

Making things even more complicated is the rapidly changing landscape in terms of presales, which requires us to use as recent comparables as possible. Can't do that when we also have to back to 2013, the last time the calendar configuration was the same (though looking at December 2013 releases will still help in a general sense with daily trends and such).

Edited November 24, 2019 by JB33

[Eric Loves Rey]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-26 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	165	8,956	30,741	29.13%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 61

 

Comp

4.709x of Once Upon’s final count (27.31M)

2.585x of It: Chapter Two (27.15M)

1.824x of Joker (24.26M)

12.849x of Maleficent (29.55M)

10.282x of Terminator (24.16M)

2.665x of Frozen II (22.65M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.761x of Lion King (17.51M)

3.613x of Hobbs & Shaw (20.96M)

[charlie Jatinder]

Can I do a club like Avengers Trilogy (ignorning Floptron) > Star Wars sequel Trilogy or it will come under fanwars? It will be sorta extension to @Porthos Civil War club.

 

Of course SW and Marvel fans aren't that bitter as DC and Marvel in my experience.

[keysersoze123]

On 11/16/2019 at 9:27 PM, keysersoze123 said:

SW9 Update

MTC1 Prev - overall 5085 shows 277654/849245 4153611.98
MTC1 OD - overall 5302 shows 173893/1084093 2774512.55

MTC1 D2 - overall 5246 shows 138875/1074318 2082214.18
MTC1 D3 - overall 5087 shows 68241/1041645 1025436.04
MTC2 Prev -  overall 3030 shows 177818/445222 2288200.00
MTC2 OD - overall 4323 shows 123738/709576 1419986.00
MTC2 D2  - overall 4408 shows 92903/725191 1018772.00
MTC2 D3 - overall 4265 shows 40184/705985 426920.00

 

Overall it sold like 50K tickets between the 2 chains over past week. Not bad for a movie still more than a month out from the release. Since I have not tracked a movie like this plus there are so many unknowns(reviews) its hard to hone in on a OW number. I feel good about this having a great OW. what the number is we will know closer to release.

 

Unfortunately its taking too long to get the data and so I have only partial for MTC1. I will update as I have them. that will probably be tomorrow.

 

SW9

MTC1 Prev - overall 5069 shows 287631/847172 4307219.72 +13182
MTC1 OD-  overall 5324 shows 187062/1088368 2970455.27 post 6PM 2453 shows 113422/503169 1911199.54 +21775
MTC1 D2 - overall 5265 shows 151475/1078244 2266066.97 post 6PM 2447 shows 60107/501997 1038538.70 +20439

 

Good to see increases for OD and saturday this early.

Edited November 24, 2019 by keysersoze123

[Inceptionzq]

8 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

Can I do a club like Avengers Trilogy (ignorning Floptron) > Star Wars sequel Trilogy or it will come under fanwars? It will be sorta extension to @Porthos Civil War club.

 

Of course SW and Marvel fans aren't that bitter as DC and Marvel in my experience.

I don’t see why not. It’s essentially a TRoS O/U 600M club. And I don’t think there’s any like that rn. I don’t even see an O/U TLJ DOM club

[ZackM]

On 11/23/2019 at 12:19 AM, ZackM said:

Frozen 2 - Various theater chains (Michigan) - Saturday Seat Report: Final Presales

 

11/22/2019	Showings	Seats Left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Pct. Sold
Total	441	62,407	78,658	16,251	20.66%

Frozen 2 - Various theater chains (Michigan) - Sunday Seat Report: Final Presales

 

11/23/2019	Showings	Seats Left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Pct. Sold
Total	411	63,471	75,685	12,214	16.14%

[Porthos]

11 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

Can I do a club like Avengers Trilogy (ignorning Floptron) > Star Wars sequel Trilogy or it will come under fanwars? It will be sorta extension to @Porthos Civil War club.

 

Of course SW and Marvel fans aren't that bitter as DC and Marvel in my experience.

Just as a point of order, my club is really a TROS > 700m club and the BP was bit was thrown in as a joke/favor to another poster who requested it when I was drawing it up.

 

You'd have to ask the mods about that specific idea, I suspect.

 

[ZackM]

The Rise of Skywalker - Various theater chains (Michigan) - Premiere Night Seat Report: T-26 days and counting

 

	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	0	1	0	0	0
Seats Added	0	77	3	0	0
Seats Sold	92	~123	~123	~123	~123
11/23/2019	Showings	Seats Left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Pct. Sold
Total	237	29,024	41,859	12,835	30.66%

[RockyMountain]

I think we need to wait to see what the reviews are like for TROS before we can really say how high or low it will open. If the RT score is in the 90-99% range (like TFA and TLJ were) I could very easily see it opening just as high if not a little higher than TLJ. If the reviews are more along the lines of what Solo had then I could see it dipping down into the 180/190 m range. As far as the fan reactions to TLJ that we have seen on the internet I don't really take that stuff all that seriously. To be honest the majority of them (while still upset that TLJ wasn't as good as they wanted it to be) I think are mainly just trying to get attention when they go on tangents about how Star Wars is ruined and things like that. For the vast majority of them all it takes to get them right back on board is one movie that they like. Mandalorian has kind of proven that as people who havn't been that happy with the franchise since Clone Wars ended are now speaking positively about Star Wars again.

 

THe only people I truly feel are done with Star Wars are those who were largely EU fans who simply aren't interested in a universe that no longer has Jaina Solo in it.