The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[RockyMountain]

1 hour ago, Bobbybuilderton said:

I don't think reviews will matter that much, at least not for people who didn't like the last jedi. Because the discrepancy between their opinion and critics last time.  I know for me, I usually put a lot of stock in reviews but I walked out of TLJ feeling like I watched a different movie than critics did. There's a deep mistrust of critics among the most salty of TLJ haters. The question is just how many people are there like that? Although I suppose that's been the argument for the past two years, huh

While there is some truth to that however for the most part most people who are so big of Star Wars fans that Last Jedi was able to infuriate them the way it did more times than not they are going to be there regardless. And all it will take to turn their tune around is to show them a Star Wars movie that they like. The reviews aren't there for them anyways. The reviews are there for the people who may enjoy watching a Star Wars movie but afterward just move on and don't give it much thought.

Edited November 28, 2019 by RockyMountain

[Porthos]

8 hours ago, StarWarsMemer said:

Would need ~9K more tickets for $45M, or 409 tickets a day on average. Probably not happening

One of the problems with your analysis is looking at this as "on average".  TROS isn't gonna sell the same amount of tickets the day before release as it does tomorrow.

 

Not counting the beginning rush, it's much more like a near-exponential curve that suddenly ramps up at the end. 

 

For instance, IW sold approx 7200 tickets the rest of the way.  It got approximately 4400 of them on the final Tue, Wed, and Thr of presales.  

 

Am I saying that TROS is going to have the exact same amount of sales (on an adjusted basis) its last three days?  Well, Marvel and Star Wars have different buying habits, probably even when Avenger movies are entered into the equation.  But I am saying that even Star Wars movies make a huge bulk of their sales the final few days.  

 

...

 

Well, ones not named Solo at any rate.

[xiazhi]

4 hours ago, Bobbybuilderton said:

I don't think reviews will matter that much, at least not for people who didn't like the last jedi. Because the discrepancy between their opinion and critics last time.  I know for me, I usually put a lot of stock in reviews but I walked out of TLJ feeling like I watched a different movie than critics did. There's a deep mistrust of critics among the most salty of TLJ haters. The question is just how many people are there like that? Although I suppose that's been the argument for the past two years, huh

This makes sense to me. Critics reviews a movie professionally while audience emotionally. Plus TLJ's CS is A, which means the audience agree with the critics.

[ZackM]

The Rise of Skywalker - Various theater chains (Michigan) - Premiere Night Seat Report: T-21 days and counting

 

	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	0	0	0	0	0
Seats Added	1	-1	0	1	1
Seats Sold	163	105	131	133	94
11/28/2019	Showings	Seats Left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Pct. Sold
Total	237	28,400	41,861	13,461	32.16%

 

The marketing seems to be working.

Edited November 29, 2019 by ZackM
Bad data

[Eric the IF]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-21 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	165	9,410	30,741	30.61%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 75

 

Comp

4.947x of Once Upon’s final count (28.69M)

2.716x of It: Chapter Two (28.52M)

1.916x of Joker (25.49M)

13.501x of Maleficent (31.05M)

10.804x of Terminator (25.39M)

2.780x of Frozen II (23.80M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.809x of Lion King (18.60M)

3.838x of Hobbs & Shaw (22.26M)

 

You can argue it got a bump from the TV spot/BTS featurette. But it wasn't as big or noticeable as prior marketing bumps. That's not saying it's bad, but it's not as impressive as, say 100+ tickets would have been.

[Porthos]

The Rise of Skywalker Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-21 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	209	11387	24474	13087	53.47%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

121

 

T-21 Adjusted Comp #1 (EXTREMELY LOL - DON'T USE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING)

	%		Sold T-21	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
CM	376.43		51	3322		2/81	7294/10616	31.29%		77.92m
TROS (adj)	n/a		118	12505		2/209	10707/23212	53.87%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Captain Marvel.

 

T-21 Adjusted Comp #2 (VERY LOL - DON'T USE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING)

	%		Sold T-21	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
IW	159.29		127	6996		1/116	4129/11125	62.89%		62.12m
TROS (adj)	n/a		100	11144		2/209	7949/19093	58.37%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Infinity War.

PRE-SALES NOTE:  TROS had 60 days of pre-sales while Infinity War had 42 days of pre-sales.

 

---

Comps so far off of Final Totals of:

	%		Final Sold		TROS Sold		Comp
IW	73.51		15159		11144		28.67m
DP2	137.02		8133		11144		25.49m
Solo	192.50		5789		11144		27.14m
JW:FK	178.93		6228		11144		27.38m
AM&tW	242.00		4605		11144		27.83m
Venom	258.96		4493		11635		25.90m
CM	118.50		10553		12505		24.53m
EG	46.91		26655		12505		28.15m
TLK	113.92		10977		12505		26.20m
It 2	231.26		5659		13087		24.28m
AVG							26.56m

NOTE: FINAL SOLD is the amount of tickets sold at stop of tracking for the given movie and TROS SOLD is the amount of tickets sold so far at the same theaters I had tracking info for the movie in question.

[RockyMountain]

1 hour ago, Eric Plus said:

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-21 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	165	9,410	30,741	30.61%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 75

 

Comp

4.947x of Once Upon’s final count (28.69M)

2.716x of It: Chapter Two (28.52M)

1.916x of Joker (25.49M)

13.501x of Maleficent (31.05M)

10.804x of Terminator (25.39M)

2.780x of Frozen II (23.80M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.809x of Lion King (18.60M)

3.838x of Hobbs & Shaw (22.26M)

 

You can argue it got a bump from the TV spot/BTS featurette. But it wasn't as big or noticeable as prior marketing bumps. That's not saying it's bad, but it's not as impressive as, say 100+ tickets would have been.

 

Whenever it doesn't hit 100 seats sold a day go ahead and boo Santa Claus. When it does hit 100 seats a day go and yell E-A-G-L-E-S---------EAGLES!!!!

 

If it sells a 150 a day go out and get you a Dallas Cowboys doll and burn it.

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, RockyMountain said:

Whenever it doesn't hit 100 seats sold a day go ahead and boo Santa Claus.

Quote

A backpacker is traveling through Ireland when it starts to rain. He decides to wait out the storm in a nearby pub. The only other person at the bar is an older man staring at his drink. After a few moments of silence the man turns to the backpacker and says in a thick Irish accent:

 

"You see this bar? I built this bar with my own bare hands. I cut down every tree and made the lumber myself. I toiled away through the wind and cold, but do they call me McGreggor the bar builder? No."

 

He continued "Do you see that stone wall out there? I built that wall with my own bare hands. I found every stone and placed them just right through the rain and the mud, but do they call me McGreggor the wall builder? No."

 

"Do ya see that pier out there on the lake? I built that pier with my own bare hands, driving each piling deep into ground so that it would last a lifetime. Do they call me McGreggor the pier builder? No."

 

"But ya fuck one goat.. boo Santa Claus one time..."

Poor Philly.  Decades later and they still can't live that down.    

Edited November 29, 2019 by Porthos

[jedijake]

TROS seems to be perpetually stuck in the upper $20-millions. When is this going to start ramping up?

 

Starting to really wonder whether it will hit $40 million in previews. But that last week-there's always the last week, right? (even though we didn't see a spike in Frozen 2).

 

Does SW9 and Frozen 2 really have THAT much of a difference in ticket sale behavior?

Edited November 29, 2019 by jedijake

[XXR vs XXR]

1 hour ago, jedijake said:

Does SW9 and Frozen 2 really have THAT much of a difference in ticket sale behavior?

 

Yes. 

[Legion Again]

1 hour ago, jedijake said:

When is this going to start ramping up?

I dunno, maybe when we get into its month of release?

[RockyMountain]

Yeah it's not even December yet.

[narniadis]

@jedijake you will enjoy following this more during the lull if you relax. Not being mean. Coming out of lull bigtime wont happen for 2 weeks - once Jumanji has released. 

[RockyMountain]

I have been looking at this thread for about three weeks now and it now is selling about two to three times as many tickets a day from when I started paying attention to it. I'm sure that trend will continue and probably even increase as opening day nears and they really start kicking the marketing into high gear.

[jedijake]

23 minutes ago, RockyMountain said:

I have been looking at this thread for about three weeks now and it now is selling about two to three times as many tickets a day from when I started paying attention to it. I'm sure that trend will continue and probably even increase as opening day nears and they really start kicking the marketing into high gear.

Okay good to know. Thanks.

[FlashMaster659]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Inland Empire Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-21 Days

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Seats Left	Perct Sold
TOTALS	3	256	13981	53600	39619	26.08%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 149

[XXR vs XXR]

So with 19 days remaining, Endgame was at 2149 tickets sold at my theater. It finished at 3623. 

 

TROS is currently at 1038 with 20 days remaining. If TROS has the same ramp up as Endgame (% wise), I'd be looking at 1750 tickets sold at my theater. That would translate to barely $30 million in previews. If TROS sells the same amount of tickets as EG the rest of the way, the total would be 2512 and would equal about $41 million in previews. IW has 2449 tickets sold at my last track, and we all know that finished at $39m previews. 

Long story short, I need to see at least 2400+ tickets sold at my theater or I don't think we're going over $40m previews. If we don't go over $40m in previews, I doubt we hit $200m OW given how SW internal multipliers tend to go.

This is the way. 

[ZackM]

1 hour ago, jedijake said:

Okay good to know. Thanks.

Here are daily ticket sales since I started tracking:

[FlashMaster659]

Btw at the Ontario Mills 30 as of last night, TROS is pacing 65.21% of Endgame ($39.12M).

[Porthos]

I didn't notice it last week, but I see our very own Shawn lowered BOP's forecast/long range tracking for Jumaji: The Next Level.  Now more or less in line with the Trades:

 

12/13/2019	Jumanji: The Next Level	$40,000,000 – $60,000,000	$50,000,000	-29%	$225,000,000 – $275,000,000			Sony / Columbia

 

Definitely not tracking it now, as it is well below my threshold for OW (and presumably previews).  Still might give it a glance over to see signs of breakout though and change my mind if there is anything brewing.