The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Tinalera]

On 11/23/2019 at 10:11 AM, Tinalera said:

Star wars the return of skywalker thurs dec 20 (taken sat nov 23)
Toronto ontario

Yonge Dundas

VIP
630 73/76
700 71/76
1015 72776
1045 66/76

IMAX

700 286/356
1045 214/356

4DX
700 76/76 (non wheelchair sellout)
1000 73/76

Scotia place
Avx
700 412/448(near so)
1040 220/448

IMAX
730 380/416
1030. 327/416

Reg 3d
600 59/235
630 135/556
940 43/185
101 4/556

Non
600 275/388
910 119/192
940 132/388

Yonge eglington
VIP
600 87/88 (non wheel sellout)
700 91/95(near sellout)
945 86/88 (non wheel sellout)
1045. 82/95

AVX
640 247/349
1015 91/349

Reg
600 75/328
730 185/328
930 27/328
1100 16/328

Eglington town
Avx
700 165/383
1045 46/383

IMAX
60 200/335
1000 130/335

Reg
630 29/260
645 22/108
730 76/211
1010 4/260
1020 2/108
1110 2/211

Don Mills
VIP
600 100/115
700 103/115
945 87/115
1045 42/115

Yorkdale
Avx
700 162/395
800 174/349
1040 20/349
1140 53/395

Reg (new)
600 72/350
940 54/350

Queensway
Vip
600 119/124
700 127/136
945 114/124
1045 113/135

Avx
700 306/377
730 270/426
1045 162/377
1115. 25/421496
g
600 30/211
630 175/279
945 16/211(new)
1015 67/279

 

7084/15909

44 percent sold

 

New shows new math lol.

 

A month out and over 40 percright. My count decided to ent sold. Pretty good all told. Certaite interesting if it picks up more after frozen as families try to figure budgets. Might see more sales after bulk have seen frozen. 

 

My new count decided to erase without saving....sigh. Just add 565 more sold since saturday which might push to 45 percent sold. 

 

 

[jedijake]

26 minutes ago, ZackM said:

Is it actually selling more tickets?  Or just a higher percentage of tickets?  It could just as easily be a matter of other areas giving TROS way more showings/seats.

Ok well yeah higher percent. But Sac is a pretty good sized city (top 40 in population at least) so it has a good number of theaters.

[Porthos]

3 hours ago, jedijake said:

Just curious-why does Sacramento seem to be selling so many more TROS tickets than anywhere else that is being tracked?

 

3 hours ago, MrPink said:

 

Porthos is buying them all

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, ZackM said:

Is it actually selling more tickets?  Or just a higher percentage of tickets?  It could just as easily be a matter of other areas giving TROS way more showings/seats.

Or different types of theaters.

 

The Greater Sacramento Area (remember, I track everything within a 20 mile radius of Downtown Sacramento as the city itself isn't that big) has really gone heavy on luxury recliners.  There are a handful of stadium style theaters left in the region, but not that many.

 

Perhaps unsurprisingly they're the ones doing the worst, both on a percentage basis and a raw ticket sale basis.

 

For example, for TROS, the average seats per showing is 127 seats.  The most often occurring (ie mode) is 110 seats. The median showing is ALSO 110 seats, ironically enuf.

 

Then there's the simple plain truth that some types of movies perform better in a region than others.  That's why I try to comp on like vs like.  SW and CBM, for instance, seem to be broadly similar enough here to be viable comps.   I only have TLK as a comp because it seemed to play more like a four-quad blockbuster than a family film.

 

And, besides, when I get back to actual comping, I'll probably only use Captain Marvel, Infinity War, Endgame, and Solo.

 

====

 

Beyond all of that, and wrapping back to my first point, some regions just sell more tickets on a percentage basis than others.  This gets back to my comment about the type of theater.  I have no idea the types of theaters that Eric is tracking in Philly, for instance.  I know Inceptionzq and FlashMaster659 have both listed their's in full, but I haven't investigated them to see the types.

 

Either way, look at the final comps here for some recent movies:

 

	Frozen 2	Joker	It 2	H&S
Sac	28.38%	18.89%	23.79%	21.44%
Philly	15.69%	15.46%	12.50%	16.35%
Denver	25.18%	17.24%	21.50%	21.70%
Imperial	17.94%	16.78%	22.20%*	n/a

* Missing one theater

 

To take one example, even on films that underperformed in Sacto and over-performed in Philly like Joker, Sacramento still beat it out on a raw percentage basis.

 

Now Sacto currently is the king of the percentages for those four regions when it comes to TROS (Sac: 52.61%, Philly: 29.95%, Denver: 36.49%, Imperial: 25.28%), which leads me to my final point.

 

I haven't looked at it closely, but some regions might buy their tickets early for some types of movies more than others.  Take Frozen 2, for example.  It was comping for a while to around 11m to 12m. It then fell through the floor and comped to around 9m to 9.5m at final bell.  Still over the actual of 8.5m, but if I only use TS4/Aladdin, it was within .5m of the final result.

 

Finally, there is the factor of what showtimes are available at what theaters.  It is a sad fact of life that some theaters are more desirable than others.  If they have a lot of showtimes versus other theaters, that can drag up the percentage even if tickets are being sold everywhere.

 

====

 

Too Long, can't expect me to read all that:  Sacramento is certainly selling well, but there are a ton of factors at play from type of theater to type of movie to just plain regional variation.

 

 

[Porthos]

8 hours ago, StarWarsMemer said:

When will you start showing more T-X comps

 

On 11/24/2019 at 11:11 PM, Porthos said:

T-19 or T-18 sounds like a good landing day.  There's no point to a T-23 comp (Endgame's first day of sales).  And its next three days were still really psycho, so they're not much better.

 

Probably bring Solo in at around T-16, as that's when its rampup finished (it started pre-sales at T-20), though I could be talked into bringing it back in at T-18 at the same time as Endgame just for symmetry and simplicity.

 

[Porthos]

I want to add something else to that wall post I just made.  

 

Take this for example:

 

2 hours ago, Tinalera said:

My new count decided to erase without saving....sigh. Just add 565 more sold since saturday which might push to 45 percent sold. 

 

The Toronto area is at around 45% sold according to Tinalera. Could be the same factors at play that I mentioned.

 

====

 

Am kinda curious just how much room for growth for TROS there is in Sacramento.  We're already at a huge amount of showtimes and the holiday season can be kinda cramped.  Maybe locally they'll throw all of the other films to the wolves like they did for Joker and TLK in an attempt to maximize the wave. 

 

But, I dunno. It's something I'll keep an eye on as we get closer to release.

[keysersoze123]

Knives Out Previews

MTC1 - overall 768 shows 22440/107306 289796.80 223027.56 +9601
MTC2 - overall 724 shows 9674/84471 108789.00 73848.00 +5257

 

Very good increase in past 24 hours. Let us see if it has the walkins to take it above 50K between the 2 MTC. That should be suffice to get it close to 2m previews(not including early screenings). May be this could still break out. I will update Day 1 PS at night.

 

Comparisons.

Ford vs Ferrari Previews finish

MTC1 - 31459/161048 474271.77 (874 shows)
MTC2 - 24862/169942 299897.00 (1136 shows )

 

I think KO could beat Ford at least at MTC1. Unlikely to do it in MTC2.

[LegendaryBen]

6 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Knives Out Previews

MTC1 - overall 768 shows 22440/107306 289796.80 223027.56 +9601
MTC2 - overall 724 shows 9674/84471 108789.00 73848.00 +5257

 

Very good increase in past 24 hours. Let us see if it has the walkins to take it above 50K between the 2 MTC. That should be suffice to get it close to 2m previews(not including early screenings). May be this could still break out. I will update Day 1 PS at night.

 

Comparisons.

Ford vs Ferrari Previews finish

MTC1 - 31459/161048 474271.77 (874 shows)
MTC2 - 24862/169942 299897.00 (1136 shows )

 

I think KO could beat Ford at least at MTC1. Unlikely to do it in MTC2.

Thanks for all you do! Nice comeback for KO. I still think MTC2 can still bring many walk-ups. If WOM is strong enough, I wouldn't be surprised with an A+ CinemaScore even though anything better than an A- is still awesome.

[Tinalera]

2 hours ago, Porthos said:

I want to add something else to that wall post I just made.  

 

Take this for example:

 

 

The Toronto area is at around 45% sold according to Tinalera. Could be the same factors at play that I mentioned.

 

====

 

Am kinda curious just how much room for growth for TROS there is in Sacramento.  We're already at a huge amount of showtimes and the holiday season can be kinda cramped.  Maybe locally they'll throw all of the other films to the wolves like they did for Joker and TLK in an attempt to maximize the wave. 

 

But, I dunno. It's something I'll keep an eye on as we get closer to release.

Torontp is interesting. Vip selling out,  imax doing well but regular seating hit or miss depending on area.  i do toronto proper but if i did gta: scarborough, the hills, markham, mississauga variations could be interesting (amd doubling seat count from 14000 to close to 30000 😨)

 

Generally toronto seems to follow US city trends...but it can surprise

 

Edited November 26, 2019 by Tinalera

[Inceptionzq]

On 11/25/2019 at 3:26 PM, Inceptionzq said:

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1635

3153

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1678

3926

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
8345	44	22870	36.49%	9	182

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1651

3153

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1681

3926

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
8419	74	22870	36.81%	9	182

[Eric Furiosa]

Knives Out Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	29	774	3,565	21.71%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 416

 

Comp

1.865x of Ready or Not (1.36M)

1.602x of Angel Has Fallen (2.40M)

1.633x of Ad Astra (2.45M)

1.825x of Rambo (2.37M)

1.940x of Ford v Ferrari (4.07M)

3.266x of Neighborhood (2.94M)

 

Another really great day tonight. I don't know if 2.4M will happen, but this seems like it's on the verge of a breakout methinks

[keysersoze123]

2 hours ago, Eric Plus said:

Knives Out Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	29	774	3,565	21.71%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 416

 

Comp

1.865x of Ready or Not (1.36M)

1.602x of Angel Has Fallen (2.40M)

1.633x of Ad Astra (2.45M)

1.825x of Rambo (2.37M)

1.940x of Ford v Ferrari (4.07M)

3.266x of Neighborhood (2.94M)

 

Another really great day tonight. I don't know if 2.4M will happen, but this seems like it's on the verge of a breakout methinks

 

numbers coming soon

[keysersoze123]

9 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Knives Out Previews

MTC1 - overall 768 shows 22440/107306 289796.80 223027.56 +9601
MTC2 - overall 724 shows 9674/84471 108789.00 73848.00 +5257

 

Very good increase in past 24 hours. Let us see if it has the walkins to take it above 50K between the 2 MTC. That should be suffice to get it close to 2m previews(not including early screenings). May be this could still break out. I will update Day 1 PS at night.

 

Comparisons.

Ford vs Ferrari Previews finish

MTC1 - 31459/161048 474271.77 (874 shows)
MTC2 - 24862/169942 299897.00 (1136 shows )

 

I think KO could beat Ford at least at MTC1. Unlikely to do it in MTC2.

Knives Out Previews Update

MTC1 - overall 773 shows 43016/108056 538765.71 411969.03
MTC2 - overall 744 shows 25741/86140 283317.00 193115.00

 

WOW. Its showcount was low but MTC1 has done amazing. even MTC2 did finish above Ford and so I am thinking this should do better. I am thinking 2.5m previews(not including early screening gross).

 

Edit: PS finished at almost 75K tickets between 2 MTC. I would say 2.5 +/- 0.2

 

Knives Out OD

MTC1 - overall 1931 shows 20057/280182 245227.75 197865.43 post 6PM 1012 shows 11694/149754 151712.40 118639.96
MTC2 - overall 1754 shows 11548/234337 105693.00 87268.00 post 6PM 734 shows 5231/98833 55497.00 40787.00

 

Again its PS is not exactly off the charts. around half of Ford but this did amazing with walk ins and so tough to project with PS.

Edited November 27, 2019 by keysersoze123

[filmlover]

 I could honestly see Knives Out pulling a 5-day opening similar to Creed ($42M) at this point.

[keysersoze123]

4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

 I could honestly see Knives Out pulling a 5-day opening similar to Creed ($42M) at this point.

I am feeling something similar as well. Could hit double digits tomorrow. Will hold better than family movies on thursday and do well over 3 day weekend as well. 100m+ for sure. Probably even higher as next 2 weekends wont have monster openers and this is not playing that wide to take showcount impact. May be 150m with good holiday run. Congrats Cap America and Bond.

[LegendaryBen]

17 minutes ago, filmlover said:

 I could honestly see Knives Out pulling a 5-day opening similar to Creed ($42M) at this point.

I agree. Based on @keysersoze123’s data and strong WOM, its legs might even be better than Creed because it was part of Rocky.

[ZackM]

The Rise of Skywalker - Various theater chains (Michigan) - Premiere Night Seat Report: T-23 days and counting

 

 

	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	0	0	0	0	1
Seats Added	0	1	1	0	77
Seats Sold	131	133	94	92	~123
11/26/2019	Showings	Seats Left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Pct. Sold
Total	237	28,668	41,861	13,193	31.52%

[JB33]

Anyone know what the theatre count for Knives Out is? BOP and BOR mentioned the count for Queen & Slim but not KO.

[Inceptionzq]

11 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Anyone know what the theatre count for Knives Out is? BOP and BOR mentioned the count for Queen & Slim but not KO.

3,391. The Numbers posts full theater counts every Thursday btw. Today being an exception of course with the Holiday

Edited November 27, 2019 by Inceptionzq

[JB33]

1 minute ago, Inceptionzq said:

3,391. The Numbers posts theater counts every Thursday

Gah, thanks. Keep forgetting that, even though I've been told many times.