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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

By grim22, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by Porthos,

Really depends on what you're looking for, but usually the most important takeaway for just a casual glance is the comp.  More on that in a bit.   But even that is highly dependent on a movie being either in a similar genre or having a similar pre-sale pattern as folks will buy tickets at different times during a pre-sale window thanks to a very long list of factors.   Add in that movies will have different promotional schedules during their pre-sales (review embargoes, TV ca
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Posted by Cap,

MODERATION:   Hi, everyone. It’s 6 o’clock in the morning. I have not gone to bed yet. And I am tired. And I know it’s going to be a very long weekend. Here is the new rule.   This thread is for numbers and data. Please post your theater updates. Please post your comparable data. And please talk about that comparable data here.    If you wish to do a deep dive on why you think that data might or might not suck, then take it to the respective thread of the movie in ques
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TalismanRing Global Phenomenon

TalismanRing

Posted
Posted (edited)

I haven't been tracking JW:FK since I have a bit of burnout and thought it would be very walk up driven.

 

But I just checked my local multiplex and it has 7 allotted showings (same as WW, GOTG, SM and Thor: R, BP -8, JL- 13, CW - 14, AIW - 19) and in the two reserved RPX theaters it's sold a total of 29 tickets out of 600+ seats... 

 

I don't think I've ever seen a number that small on opening week there before a blockbuster.    30% would be on the low end this late for a $100m+ opener.  This is less than 5% 

 

(On the high end like BP, CW and AIW there were already sell outs - and by Thur SM:HC had 2 sell outs and Thor:R was at 85%+)

 

Also

 

Lincoln Sq IMAX - Only 4 shows scheduled so far

 

7pm IMAX - about 60%

10pm IMAX:  about 25%

7pm (reg): about 20%

 

 

Edited by TalismanRing
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Chewy Global Phenomenon

Chewy

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, The Incredible Panda said:

Maybe there really is something to these under 100m OW predicts?

 

Time for an earnest Ant-Man 2 over JWFK club

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The Panda Global Phenomenon

The Panda

Posted
Posted

There’s also only a few cases, adjusted where a 100m opener was followed by another 100m opener, those were

 

Shrek the Third - Pirates 3

Shrek adjusted to a 161m OW, dropped 56% for a 70m Second Weekend to Pirates’ 153m

 

Shrek 2 - Day After Tomorrow

Shrek 2’s OW adjusts to 159m and dropped to 106m for its second weekend, where Day After Tomorrow opened in second to 101m.  One of the few cases of two 100m weekend grossers in one weekend.

 

The Matrix Reloded - Bruce Almighty

Reloaded adjusted to a 139m OW, dropped to 56m in its second weekend while Bruce Almighty grossed 103m.

 

Planet of the Apes - Rush Hour 2

Apes opened to 110m adjusted and fell 60% to 46m against Rush Hour 2s 109m

 

The Da Vinci Code - X-Men: The Last Stand

Code opened to 108m adjusted and fell 56% to X’s 143m

 

Of all of these the Shrek comparisons are the best.  Shrek 3’s drop is probably to steep as a comparison because of how disliked it, but AWE is probably going to be closer to how JWFK will open.

 

The Shrek 2 comparison also shows that there’s precedent for two movies to be able to both do 100m in a single weekend, that may require JWFK opening near the lower end of its range though.

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MikeQ Box Office Gold

MikeQ

Posted
Posted

MT Update:

 

Incredibles 2: 66.5%

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom: 9.1%

Ocean's 8: 4.9%

Tag: 3.8%

Solo: A Star Wars Story: 2.2%

 

Jurassic World 2 is making its way up even while the behemoth that is Incredibles 2 does huge numbers and holds strong. Next weekend is going to be huge with both films bringing in tons of people into the theatres. Love it when we get a summer like this.

 

Peace,

Mike

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YM! Global Phenomenon

YM!

Posted
Posted (edited)

I got good news and bad news about the Dinos.

 

North Shore Cinema update

 

Fallen Kingdom is running 21.3% behind JL ($73.27M), 3% behind Rangarok ($120.13M), 15% ahead of Homecoming ($134.86M) and 238% ahead of IT.

 

The good news is the only one at the same point in time is IT so it still has time to catch up and IT had a massive surge the last few days before, the bad news is the pre sales are still horrendous. 

 

My guess now is somewhere in the $115M-$140M range still but this looks bad

Edited by YourMother the Edgelord
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Eric is Quiet Global Phenomenon

Eric is Quiet

Posted
Posted

Jurassic World 2 722 2877 25.10%

 

Comps (the following are their final totals before their previews, not at the same point in time):

 

397% of Blade Runner ($130M)

79% of Thor: Ragnarok ($97.1M)

51% of Justice League ($48.3M)

361% of Jumanji ($130.6M)

334% of Ready Player One ($139.6M)

43% of Deadpool 2 ($53.8M)

67% of Solo ($56.5M)

28% of Incredibles 2 ($51.6M)

 

🤔

 

Obviously these aren't perfect correlations, because these comps had three more days of ticket sales, but it's one that's really hard to determine either way. Thor: Ragnarok seems like the safest comparison in terms of walk-up driven franchises, but with the latter three all being summer releases, it does make things seem bleak. But ofc, it's too early to tell.

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Andreas Sleeper Hit

Andreas

Posted
Posted
57 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

So Incredibles 2 is basically stealing all the attention from JW2?

Looks like it.

 

MT UPDATE:

I2: 67.2%

JW2: 10.2%

O8: 4.3%

Tag: 3.6%

Solo: 2%

JW2 is on the rise... but I2 too!:jeb!:

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YM! Global Phenomenon

YM!

Posted
Posted

North Shore Cinema update

 

Ant Man and The Wasp is running 6.4% behind Homecoming ($109.53M), 45.7% behind Rangarok ($66.65M) 53.2% behind Fallen Kingdom ($???.??M) and 55.4% behind Justice League ($41.75M) at about the same point in time.

 

Now, remember only Homecoming and Ant Man started at the same time whereas the other three got a good headstart. It’s a solid start though.

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That One Girl Global Phenomenon

That One Girl

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

Jurassic World 2 722 2877 25.10%

 

Comps (the following are their final totals before their previews, not at the same point in time):

 

397% of Blade Runner ($130M)

 79% of Thor: Ragnarok ($97.1M)

 51% of Justice League ($48.3M)

 361% of Jumanji ($130.6M)

 334% of Ready Player One ($139.6M)

 43% of Deadpool 2 ($53.8M)

67% of Solo ($56.5M)

 28% of Incredibles 2 ($51.6M)

 

🤔

 

Obviously these aren't perfect correlations, because these comps had three more days of ticket sales, but it's one that's really hard to determine either way. Thor: Ragnarok seems like the safest comparison in terms of walk-up driven franchises, but with the latter three all being summer releases, it does make things seem bleak. But ofc, it's too early to tell.

 

I highly doubt JW:FK is as presales heavy as DP2, Solo, or I2.

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted (edited)

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom Greater Sacramento Area Seat Report: T-3 Days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

118

9224

12097

23.75%

 

Total Showings Added Today:    7

Total Seats Added Today:      834

Total Seats Sold Today:         443

 

.2843x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 3 days before release. (IW had 19 more days of pre-sales)

.6366x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 3 days before release (BP had 16 more days of pre-sales) 

.6576x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2  3 days before release (DP2 had one plus more days of pre-sales) 

.6736x as many tickets sold as Solo 3 days before release (Solo had 20 days of pre-sales compared to JW:FK's 22 days of presales) 

 

====

 

More detailed T-3 comps:

 

IW:

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

6

151

3858

13963

72.37%

 

Total Seats Sold That Day:          549

 

BP:

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

6

81

3766

8279

54.51%

 

Total Seats Sold That Day:          311

 

DP2:

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

127

9812

14181

30.81%

 

Total Seats Sold That Day:          374

 

Solo:

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

1

103

6745

11010

38.74%

 

Total Seats Sold That Day:          196

 

================

 

Very good day for JK:FK locally in Sacratomatoes.  Now let's see if it can keep up the momentum as premiere night approaches.

Edited by Porthos
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abra Sleeper Hit

abra

Posted
Posted 
Updated by @akvalley: 2018-06-18 23:59:30 Central (Lock time Fridays 11:00:00)
BUY TIME	TICKETS	MOVIE TITLE
--------------------------------------------------
2018-06-18 23:00:00	1715	Incredibles 2
2018-06-18 23:00:00	514	Jurassic World Fallen Kingdom
2018-06-18 23:00:00	157	Oceans 8
2018-06-18 23:00:00	156	Incredibles 2 3D
2018-06-18 23:00:00	138	Tag (2018)
2018-06-18 23:00:00	102	Ant-Man and the Wasp
2018-06-18 23:00:00	94	Hereditary
2018-06-18 23:00:00	93	Deadpool 2
2018-06-18 23:00:00	89	Jurassic World Fallen Kingdom 3D
2018-06-18 23:00:00	75	Solo A Star Wars Story
2018-06-18 23:00:00	54	Incredibles 2 The IMAX 2D Experience
2018-06-18 23:00:00	43	Avengers Infinity War
2018-06-18 23:00:00	42	Jurassic World Fallen Kingdom An IMAX 3D Experience
2018-06-18 23:00:00	41	SuperFly (2018)
2018-06-18 23:00:00	29	Jurassic World Fallen Kingdom The IMAX 2D Experience
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