The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[YM!]

On 7/1/2018 at 7:53 AM, YourMother the Edgelord said:

North Shore Cinema update 

 

Ant Man and The Wasp is running 48.5% behind Justice League ($47.9M) and 30% behind Homecoming ($82.3M). If we use Ultrascreen only for Justice League it is at $62.8M OW. Not going to lie, this isn’t looking the best right now, I should have a better idea Tuesday but I don’t like how far behind it is compared to Justice League and especially Homecoming as it was the most backloaded. My range is for $70M-$90M OW. Not sold on $100M unless sales pick up Tuesday.

 

Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation is running 1000% ahead of Wrinkle ($350M OW), 150% ahead of Coco ($125M OW), 58% behind DM3 ($31.2M OW) and 33% behind The Star ($6.5M OW). These are not the best comparisons obviously but some of them are hilarious. The best one is probably DM3, which is a good start.

North Shore Cinema update 

 

Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation is running 300% ahead of Wrinkle ($140.4M OW), 240% ahead of Daddy’s Home 2 ($101.4M OW), 50% ahead of Wonder ($41.25M OW) and 14% ahead of Coco ($58M OW)

 

The latter two seem to be the best comparisons however this is on pace to be the second highest animated movie (behind I2) in presales I’ve tracked at North Shore. If reviews are about the same as the original which isn’t asking for much it should do somewhere in the $45M-$50M OW range.

 

Skyscraper is running 70% behind The Golden Circle ($12M OW), 60% behind Dunkirk ($20M OW), 58% behind Apes ($23.6M OW)

 

I know this will be walk up based but these presales regardless are awful. Thinking $25M-$35M OW. 

Edited July 8, 2018 by YourMother the Edgelord

[DAJK]

Oooooof that's BAD for Skyscraper. Starting to look more and more likely that sub 30 for next weekend is possible. 

[MovieMan89]

Skyscraper isn't a pre-sales movie at all. That said, Rampage numbers or a little worse are looking likely. 

[Blaze Heatnix]

The Equalizer 2 will murder Skyscraper. 

 

The Rock is basically the male Jennifer Lawrence, he's in almost everything. The Rock fatigue is very real. Denzel Washington knows how to rest his image. He just makes one or 2 movies per year.

 

 

[meridan]

On 7/5/2018 at 7:11 PM, HouseOfTheSun said:

Ant Man looks maybe 7-10% below Thor 3 around my area but but it’s a college city and everyone’s one break so that likely is the reason. I think this has a better shot of hitting 110m than 80m 

lol

Edited July 8, 2018 by meridan

[WrathOfHan]

Pulse:

 

1. Ant-Man

2. Incredibles 2

3. Jurassic World

4. Hotel Transylvania 3

5. Trolls (?)

[La Binoche]

19 hours ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

The Equalizer 2 will murder Skyscraper. 

 

The Rock is basically the male Jennifer Lawrence, he's in almost everything. The Rock fatigue is very real. Denzel Washington knows how to rest his image. He just makes one or 2 movies per year.

 

 

Denzel Washington can also act. A key difference between him and The Rock. 

[Eric is Quiet]

11 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Pulse:

 

1. Ant-Man

2. Incredibles 2

3. Jurassic World

4. Hotel Transylvania 3

5. Trolls (?)

 

 

Spoiler

C'mon, you know someone was gonna use this.

 

[Poseidon]

I'm not sure, why people were so negative on HT.

It might not hitthe comical taste of adults, but it's quite obvious, that it's big with kids.

The trailer views are huge, it's been a month since I2 and a lot of families got the trailer in the theaters.

 

Additionally, the sneaks scored pretty great numbers on matinee ticket prices.

I wouldn't be surprised at all, if this would go as high as $200m in the end. 

[TwoMisfits]

5 minutes ago, Poseidon said:

I'm not sure, why people were so negative on HT.

It might not hitthe comical taste of adults, but it's quite obvious, that it's big with kids.

The trailer views are huge, it's been a month since I2 and a lot of families got the trailer in the theaters.

 

Additionally, the sneaks scored pretty great numbers on matinee ticket prices.

I wouldn't be surprised at all, if this would go as high as $200m in the end. 

On HT, I was amused when Food Network's Next Food Network Star show literally did a whole challenge focused on the movie last night, including watching a preview of the movie and discussing the 6 main characters...way to get parental awareness for the movie (and actually, the show is a family watch, so if you wanted to hit the whole demo at once, I'm betting it was cheap and easy:)...I will say, I've never seen them have another kid movie integrated into the seasons of this show...

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

1:05PM ET - MT Update

 

36.9% - Ant-Man and the Wasp

16% - The Incredibles 2

15.6% - Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

9.1% - The First Purge

3.9% - Sicario: Day of the Soldado

[John Marston]

3 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

 

 

  Reveal hidden contents

C'mon, you know someone was gonna use this.

 

Incredibles fans won't be pleased

[poweranimals]

4 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Pulse:

 

1. Ant-Man

2. Incredibles 2

3. Jurassic World

4. Hotel Transylvania 3

5. Trolls (?)

Why is Trolls on there? 

[That One Girl]

1 hour ago, poweranimals said:

Why is Trolls on there? 

 

Probably Regal summer movie express or something

[DAJK]

GREAT for Hotel. It’s going over 40 this weekend. Skyscraper under 30

Edited July 9, 2018 by DAJK

[Mojoguy]

HT3 was very quick at appearing.

It is the complete lack of any family movies outside Incredibles 2 I'd imagine.

Edited July 9, 2018 by Mojoguy

[Mojoguy]

Incredibles fans won't be pleased

Incredibles fans were expecting zero competition for the entire summer?

Edited July 9, 2018 by Mojoguy

[YM!]

Honestly can see $50M OW for HT3.

[MovieMan89]

Yeah, HT3 doing what it is on MT while Skyscraper is nowhere to be found is not good at all for the latter. Skyscraper isn't the kind of movie that would be big on pre-sales, but neither is HT3. So I'd say either HT3 is doing an absurdly high number no one sees coming or Skyscraper is going to be 30m or less. 

[John Marston]

1 hour ago, Mojoguy said:

Incredibles fans were expecting zero competition for the entire summer?

 

 

They said because Incredibles 2 is so strong HT3 would underperform. Instead it is looking like HT3 will open strongly and likely hurt Incredibles 2