The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[KeepItU25071906]

7 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

How much beer would you have to drink to have kavanaugh as your profile pic

Edited October 1, 2018 by KeepItU25071906

[MaxAggressor]

 

[TalismanRing]

Fandango App	Monday	Tues	Wed	Thursday	Friday
A Wrinke In Time		4,864		15,601
A Quiet Place	2,177	4,003	10,665
Blockers	504	1,106	2,931
Rampage	705	1,508	4,109
Truth Or Dare	385	760	2,133
Super Troopers	2,825	3,447	6,881
I Feel Pretty	871	1,610	4,423
Avengers: Infinity War	49,836	54,892	68,826	206,000
Overboard	84	409	1,044
Breaking In	727	1204	2,899
Life Of The Party	587	1,310	3,010
Deadpool 2	23,134	28,896	41,212
Show Dogs	6	128	369
Book Club	836	1,599	3,283
SW: Solo	13,688	15,855	28,533
Action Point	17	48	197
Upgrade	9	119	522
Adrift	63	308	1,268
Oceans 8	3,009	4,372	11,114
Hereditary	659	1,178	3,181
Hotel Artemis	26	166	520
Incredibles 2	20,872	23,430	39,337
Tag	314	660	1,448
Jurassic World 2	9,310	12,761	23,266
Sicario 2	788	1282	3,403
Uncle Drew	274	473	1,201
Antman & The Wasp	6,613	5,990	11,108
Purge (Wed)	2,885	8,308
Hotel Transylvania 3	1,753	2,674	6,605	14,754
Skyscraper	586	1,019	2,868	7,134
Mamma Mia 2	4,427	5,099	12,117	17,226
Equalizer	1,418	2,297	6,073	11,875
Unfriended		71	240	975
MI6		*3328	13,575	27,261
Teen Titans		*462	2,125	4,526
Christopher Robin	1,560	2,442	5,355	11,509
The Spy Who Dumped Me	234	542	1,561	4,222
The Darkest Minds	130	244	579	1,777
Eighth Grade	494	508	720	936
Death of A Nation	148	194	375	1,239
The Meg	1,539	2,944	6,723	16,202
Slender Man	177	418	1,091	3,737
BlackkKlansman	432	682	1,934	5,017
Dog Days (Wed)	115	631	1,536	1,212
Crazy Rich Asians (Wed)	3,651	5,742	20,173	20,102
Alpha	181	283	943	2,069
Mile 22	282	519	1,833	5,200
Happytime Murders	382	*488	1,954	5,602
A.X.L.	32	*60	310	911
Kin	21	141	263	741
Operation Finale (Wed)	415	2,083	4,879	3,915
Searching	303	588	1,194	2,862
The Nun	2,082	5,938	13,806	28,881
Peppermint	286	863	2,508	4,441
God Bless The Broken Road	6	33	152	282
Predator	1,295	2,476	4,545	13,063
A Simple Favor	564	2,126	4,410	10,381
White Boy Rick	136	567	1,458	4,587
Unbroken 2	88	180	360	659
House With Clocks	897	1469	3607	8,074
Fahrenheit 11/9	164	281	713	1,715
Life Itself	79	162	394	953
Assassination Nation		36	94	382
Night School	1,045	1,756	3,566
Small Foot	734	1,261	2,448
Hellfest	195	304	661
Little Women		65	134
Venom	13,602
A Star Is Born	9,115

[Barnack]

Star is born compared to Jurassic World 2 / Ocean 8 / Solo / Ant-Man / Deadpool 2 look impressive.

 

Venom seem ok compared to Ant-Man / Solo / Deadpool 2 (considering that a 125m opening and Venom doing half of that would be really good)

[DAJK]

Putting that in perspective, Venom is WAY higher than Ant-Man, and on par with Solo (which opened to over 80 freaking million AND was super pre-sale based since its Star Wars). Don't think it's gonna go under 50 this weekend, and 60+ could be a real shot as long as sales stay strong throughout the next few days. 

 

Star is Born is double Mama Mia 2. Yowza. While there's certainly more of a rush factor here, and I think it will end up skewing slightly younger than Mama Mia, this practically says 40M is happening as long as sales stay strong. 

[La Binoche]

1 minute ago, Barnack said:

Star is born compared to Jurassic World 2 / Ocean 8 / Solo / Ant-Man / Deadpool 2 look impressive.

 

Venom seem ok compared to Ant-Man / Solo / Deadpool 2 (considering that a 125m opening and Venom doing half of that would be really good)

Wait why is ASIB being compared to JW2, solo, AM, DP? O8 is the only comp that makes sense... 

[La Binoche]

2 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Putting that in perspective, Venom is WAY higher than Ant-Man, and on par with Solo (which opened to over 80 freaking million AND was super pre-sale based since its Star Wars). Don't think it's gonna go under 50 this weekend, and 60+ could be a real shot as long as sales stay strong throughout the next few days. 

 

Star is Born is double Mama Mia 2. Yowza. While there's certainly more of a rush factor here, and I think it will end up skewing slightly younger than Mama Mia, this practically says 40M is happening as long as sales stay strong. 

 

How so? MM2 was a sequel. 

[Barnack]

8 minutes ago, La Binoche said:

Wait why is ASIB being compared to JW2, solo, AM, DP? O8 is the only comp that makes sense... 

Because it is destroying 08 in presales that day and is more in the others named category.

 

I feel like it will be more pre-sales heavy than 68% on RT 70% over 25 Ocean 8, very casual audience movie. (i.e. I doubt it will make a 120m OW and that Ocean 8 is the best comparable of the bunch in the very early pre-sales heaviness)

Edited October 2, 2018 by Barnack

[La Binoche]

2 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Because it is destroying 08 in presales that day and is more in the others named category.

 

 

 

Jesus. How did WB turn a would be Razzie winner into such an event? 

[Barnack]

2 minutes ago, La Binoche said:

Jesus. How did WB turn a would be Razzie winner into such an event? 

Not sure WB was much involved production wise or needed specially good marketing with that festival / review reception or why the would be Razzie mention....

 

It is not that surprising with is official past involvement and rumored past involvement that Cooper/Philips movie filmed by Libatique do not deliver a disaster first movie using such a well established formula. It is with the David O Russel editor he worked with in the past in the editing room also.

[TalismanRing]

38 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Star is born compared to Jurassic World 2 / Ocean 8 / Solo / Ant-Man / Deadpool 2 look impressive.

 

Venom seem ok compared to Ant-Man / Solo / Deadpool 2 (considering that a 125m opening and Venom doing half of that would be really good)

I think Venom compares to DP2 the best.  It's shares a lot of the same target audience even though it's not rated R. It's  not a family film which will have bigger walk ups (AM2 and JW2) nor is it a previous weeks very heavy pre seller (Solo).

Star's best comp may have been Crazy Rich Asians with the huge proceeding buzz and great reviews targeting maybe a younger audience than O8 and MM2.  A pity it's was a Wed opener .   Too bad we don't have any numbers for movies like Les Miz

Edited October 2, 2018 by TalismanRing

[Barnack]

13 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Star's best comp may have been Crazy Rich Asians with the huge proceeding buzz and great reviews targeting maybe a younger audience than O8 and MM2.  A pity it's was a Wed opener .   Too bad we don't have any numbers for movies like Les Miz

CRA could have been but the legs tend to show some "took the audience by surprise" going on (late embargo right ?) that should match a weak pre-sales ratio, considering how much Star is Born beat it despite openning 2 days after and CRA small 400-450k in irregular tuesday previews.

 

,This was really buzzed among the frequent movie goers/cinephile (they type that has an app to buy ticket installed on their phone), combined with some star power and a bit of a known title, it should have a more pre-sales heavy opening.

 

I agree with your Deadpool 2 being the best comparable here, not a sequel but such a franchise and webpresence that it should be has heavy, if so it should take off for a 60-65 start and maybe go down with a bad internal multiplier (or up if audience eat up is from the past idiosyncrasy a bit like for The Meg)

 

 

[Fanboy]

Obviously ASIB and Venom are heavily presale driven, but the fact that it's October and two movies are selling tickets equivalent to 100M+ openers is insane. I really want both of them to beat Gravity's record. 

[DAJK]

3 movies braking Gravity's record in 1 month 

 

 

Also @TalismanRing your updates are the best thing of my days sometimes (and I know that's really sad). I'll just analyze the hell out of those numbers even if I personally don't come up with any conclusions other than "movie A is selling well". Thank you for keeping, and posting, that data. 

[RealLyre]

1 hour ago, TalismanRing said:

Fandango App	Monday	Tues	Wed	Thursday	Friday
A Wrinke In Time		4,864		15,601
A Quiet Place	2,177	4,003	10,665
Blockers	504	1,106	2,931
Rampage	705	1,508	4,109
Truth Or Dare	385	760	2,133
Super Troopers	2,825	3,447	6,881
I Feel Pretty	871	1,610	4,423
Avengers: Infinity War	49,836	54,892	68,826	206,000
Overboard	84	409	1,044
Breaking In	727	1204	2,899
Life Of The Party	587	1,310	3,010
Deadpool 2	23,134	28,896	41,212
Show Dogs	6	128	369
Book Club	836	1,599	3,283
SW: Solo	13,688	 15,855	28,533
Action Point	17	48	197
Upgrade	9	119	522
Adrift	63	308	1,268
Oceans 8	3,009	4,372	11,114
Hereditary	659	1,178	3,181
Hotel Artemis	26	166	520
Incredibles 2	20,872	23,430	39,337
Tag	314	660	1,448
Jurassic World 2	9,310	12,761	23,266
Sicario 2	788	1282	3,403
Uncle Drew	274	473	1,201
Antman & The Wasp	6,613	 5,990	11,108
Purge (Wed)	2,885	8,308
Hotel Transylvania 3	1,753	2,674	6,605	14,754
Skyscraper	586	1,019	2,868	7,134
Mamma Mia 2	4,427	5,099	12,117	17,226
Equalizer	1,418	2,297	6,073	11,875
Unfriended		71	240	975
MI6		*3328	13,575	27,261
Teen Titans		*462	2,125	4,526
Christopher Robin	1,560	2,442	5,355	11,509
The Spy Who Dumped Me	234	542	1,561	4,222
The Darkest Minds	130	244	579	1,777
Eighth Grade	494	508	720	936
Death of A Nation	148	194	375	1,239
The Meg	1,539	2,944	6,723	16,202
Slender Man	177	418	1,091	3,737
BlackkKlansman	432	682	1,934	5,017
Dog Days (Wed)	115	631	1,536	1,212
Crazy Rich Asians (Wed)	3,651	5,742	20,173	20,102
Alpha	181	283	943	2,069
Mile 22	282	519	1,833	5,200
Happytime Murders	382	*488	1,954	5,602
A.X.L.	32	*60	310	911
Kin	21	141	263	741
Operation Finale (Wed)	415	2,083	4,879	3,915
Searching	303	588	1,194	2,862
The Nun	2,082	5,938	13,806	28,881
Peppermint	286	863	2,508	4,441
God Bless The Broken Road	6	33	152	282
Predator	1,295	2,476	4,545	13,063
A Simple Favor	564	2,126	4,410	10,381
White Boy Rick	136	567	1,458	4,587
Unbroken 2	88	180	360	659
House With Clocks	897	1469	3607	8,074
Fahrenheit 11/9	164	281	713	1,715
Life Itself	79	162	394	953
Assassination Nation		36	94	382
Night School	1,045	1,756	3,566
Small Foot	734	1,261	2,448
Hellfest	195	304	661
Little Women		65	134
Venom	13,602
A Star Is Born	9,115

wasn't Venom behind Solo and AMATW just few days ago? how did it catch up so fast

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

5 hours ago, RealLyre said:

wasn't Venom behind Solo and AMATW just few days ago? how did it catch up so fast

That comp was from from one cinema. This is from the entire fandango app. 

[MaxAggressor]

MT:

 

Night School - 14.9%

Venom - 14%

A Star Is Born - 11%

Smallfoot - 10.2%

My Hero Academia: Two Heroes - 6.1%

[Pinacolada]

This weekend is going is be really exciting. Honestly, happy for both. Hope Venom will break the October record and hit $60+ million, and also hoping ASIB will hit $40+ million.

 

Awesome numbers rn

[LonePirate]

52 minutes ago, MaxAggressor said:

MT:

 

Night School - 14.9%

Venom - 14%

A Star Is Born - 11%

Smallfoot - 10.2%

My Hero Academia: Two Heroes - 6.1%

People are placing way too much stock into these MT percentages, which are about as useful as a paper bag for carrying water.

 

According to those numbers, NS is selling 2.5 tickets for every MHA ticket sold. Looking at the three day weekend actuals, NS outsold MHA by 20 to 1. That MT data is representative of almost nothing.

[TalismanRing]

4 hours ago, EarlyDeadlinePredictions said:

That comp was from from one cinema. This is from the entire fandango app. 

It's also for one day and not for the prior weeks of pre-sales.