The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Rorschach]

My theater added a bunch more showtimes for Captain Marvel's Thursday night showings today. Up from 4 2D showings to 14. I'm guessing they were added them sometime today since most of the newer ones haven't had a single seat reserved yet.

 

The ones in bold are the newly added ones.

 

Fan-Event Showing:

6:00 - 196/238

 

3D:

7:30 - 32/85

10:30 - 2/85

 

IMAX 2D:

7:00 - 208/387

10:30 - 28/387

 

2D (* = DBOX showing):

7:15 - 2/94

*7:45 - 105/135

*8:00 - 33/78

8:15 - 6/94

8:30 - 84/141

8:45 - 0/85

9:00 - 2/56

9:15 - 56/238

9:30 - 0/85

9:45 - 0/67

10:15 - 0/94

*10:45 - 32/135

11:00 - 0/78

*11:15 - 0/94

 

 

 

[Deep Wang]

Just now, Rorschach said:

My theater added a bunch more showtimes for Captain Marvel's Thursday night showings today. Up from 4 2D showings to 14. I'm guessing they were added them sometime today since most of the newer ones haven't had a single seat reserved yet.

 

The ones in bold are the newly added ones.

 

Fan-Event Showing:

6:00 - 196/238

 

3D:

7:30 - 32/85

10:30 - 2/85

 

IMAX 2D:

7:00 - 208/387

10:30 - 28/387

 

2D (* = DBOX showing):

7:15 - 2/94

*7:45 - 105/135

*8:00 - 33/78

8:15 - 6/94

8:30 - 84/141

8:45 - 0/85

9:00 - 2/56

9:15 - 56/238

9:30 - 0/85

9:45 - 0/67

10:15 - 0/94

*10:45 - 32/135

11:00 - 0/78

*11:15 - 0/94

 

It also helps when you have the final bookings for the next week.  Movies that are leaving Thursday are the first ones cut and I guarantee nobody will play any of those past 5pm.  That allows them to go back in and add and movie things around to get the most times possible.

[Joyous Legion]

8 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

All from the akvalley fandango 24 hour tracker: http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/fandango_past24hours.txt    

 

I recovered the hourly data for last night from a couple pages ago:  

Sun 3/3

21:00 12.1k

22:00 13.8k

23:00 15.5k

00:00 15.7k

 

and I plan to keep hourly logs for my waking hours from now to 6M Pacific Thursday.

 

Mon 3/4  

19:00  20.8k

20:00 22.4k

21:00  24.2k

22:00 27.4k (as expected ~ double)

23:00 30.2k

00:00  32.9k

Final: 33.9k

 

exactly double at same point. Will be editing this post for next 3 hours, but roughly expect the day to end at some 32k+, about 90% BP.

Edited March 5, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[Rorschach]

12 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

It also helps when you have the final bookings for the next week.  Movies that are leaving Thursday are the first ones cut and I guarantee nobody will play any of those past 5pm.  That allows them to go back in and add and movie things around to get the most times possible.

Yea I figured that was the case. I just checked the times a few minutes ago. We've got six movies leaving that day (Aquaman, Cold Pursuit, Happy Death Day 2U, Run the Race, A Star is Born and What Men Want) and only two new ones coming in (CM and The Kid).

Edited March 5, 2019 by Rorschach

[Welfin]

4 hours ago, Deep Wang said:

Agreed. Us isn’t going to make it

I am still holding out hope.

[RealLyre]

1 hour ago, Thanos Legion said:

Mon 3/4  

19:00  20.8k

20:00 22.4k

21:00  24.2k

22:00 27.4k (as expected ~ double)

 

exactly double at same point. Will be editing this post for next 3 hours, but roughly expect the day to end at some 32k+, about 90% BP.

32K would be great. that would indicate a Thursday previews in the 20s, no?

 

[Joyous Legion]

3 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

32K would be great. that would indicate a Thursday previews in the 20s, no?

 

Just mapping Monday Fandango sales straight to Thursday numbers it would be proportional to about 22M. But naturally red carpet timing is different, reviews will be different, one year’s worth of increased general prebuying habits, very different lengths of presale period, etc.    

 

I am personally starting to lean more toward like 20-23 than 18-22, but the best way to improve prediction quality is just let more time pass. 

[RealLyre]

I hope it does 20-23 too, which would give around 160M-184M OW depends at how frontloaded it is.

 

 or 150M-172M if it's more frontloaded than BP but still has a good chance to take the March record

 

 

Edited March 5, 2019 by RealLyre
.

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, Thanos Legion said:

Just mapping Monday Fandango sales straight to Thursday numbers it would be proportional to about 22M. But naturally red carpet timing is different, reviews will be different, one year’s worth of increased general prebuying habits, very different lengths of presale period, etc.    

As much as I'd like to use Black Panther as the main comp, the bolded is very true.

 

The thing I'm wondering about is the increased amount of showings in the post BP/IW landscape.  

 

Like, I've already commented on it a couple of times, but I'm seeing an increase in showings per theater here for CM, and I reckon that has to make some sort of difference.  Even if the increased showings are the ones with fewer seats, it starts to add up after a while.

 

Then there is the 64 million dollar question on just how much of a shift is happening within the OW from FSS to Th, if any.

 

That's the sort of thing we really won't know until the weekend is over, and even then we might not know why exactly.

[FlashMaster659]

1 hour ago, Thanos Legion said:

Mon 3/4  

19:00  20.8k

20:00 22.4k

21:00  24.2k

22:00 27.4k (as expected ~ double)

 

exactly double at same point. Will be editing this post for next 3 hours, but roughly expect the day to end at some 32k+, about 90% BP.

23:00 30.2k

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, Porthos said:

Like, I've already commented on it a couple of times, but I'm seeing an increase in showings per theater here for CM, and I reckon that has to make some sort of difference.  Even if the increased showings are the ones with fewer seats, it starts to add up after a while.

Let me give a couple of Cases in Point.

 

BP ended up with 16 showings at Century Arden for its preview night, including one 6pm fan event.

CM already has 21 showings at Century Arden for its preview night, including two 6pm fan events.  I won't be surprised one bit if a couple more are added.

 

BP ended up with 8 showings at Century Doco for its preview night.

CM already has 13 showings at Century Doco for its preview night.

 

I've already commented about Century Blue Oaks (25 showings!!!), so I'll leave that as said.

 

====

 

Some places only have their partial slates up, so I can't do a full compare and contrast.  But lets just say that I don't think any theater in town is going to have fewer showings for CM than they did BP. 

 

This will goose* the number locally.  If the trend is repeated nationally, it might impact the Thr:OW internal multiplier.

 

* Pun not intended.

Edited March 5, 2019 by Porthos

[Joyous Legion]

Ended at 32.9k, strong last hour.

 

Edit: Not quite final, see @CoolEric258‘s posts below for more.

Edited March 5, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[Biggestgeekever]

1 minute ago, Thanos Legion said:

Ended at 32.9k, strong last hour.

Very good stuff. That's the third highest number we've seen outside of Avengers: Infinity War (49,836) and Black Panther (35,429).

 

We'll see if the film's presales will continue to accelerate, but even if it had a direct correlation to IW that would signal a $170M, and IW had the lowest Monday presales to OW ratio of the films @TalismanRing noted.

[Eric the Minion]

11 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Ended at 32.9k, strong last hour.

Not yet. The last hour is still on estimates. Wait about 45 more minutes, and I'll post  the final results (or next  morning. Depends on how much I want to sleep)

[RealLyre]

since Captain Marvel review embargo lifts in a little under 9 hours from now, could that help it pass BP on Fandango for Tuesday ? 

 

 

 

[Joyous Legion]

5 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Not yet. The last hour is still on estimates. Wait about 45 more minutes, and I'll post  the final results (or next  morning. Depends on how much I want to sleep)

Ah, interesting. I was thinking it was weird given that it’s only 11:30 Eastern time. So the next update will say 

Quote

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours

Since: 2019-03-04 01:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

 

Right? Will that be the final for the day, or include an hour of estimates for tomorrow as well. If the latter, where do you go to find the full day final.

 

[charlie Jatinder]

Assuming the film play as the following 4 comps on their next 4 days and then translating the Thursday to previews give some really big numbers. Look at yourself.

 

Black Panther	32950	33,762	37,140	60,873		$  23,483,234
Avengers: Infinity War	32950	36,293	45,506	136,201		$  25,785,577
Deadpool 2	32950	41,157	58,699	89,732		$  26,492,176
Venom	32950	33,473	50,549	76,474		$  24,224,379

 

[Eric the Minion]

11 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Ah, interesting. I was thinking it was weird given that it’s only 11:30 Eastern time. So the next update will say 

 

Right? Will that be the final for the day, or include an hour of estimates for tomorrow as well. If the latter, where do you go to find the full day final.

 

I...don't know the answer to that. However, my data is always making sure it's within the 0:00 to 23:00 timespan, so again, just wait until my thing is ready in  a few minutes.

[Joyous Legion]

5 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

I...don't know the answer to that. However, my data is always making sure it's within the 0:00 to 23:00 timespan, so again, just wait until my thing is ready in  a few minutes.

Ahh, I’ve been looking just at the past 24 hour tracker, but you’re using this one: http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/Fandango_track.txt

 

which groups things hourly, is that right? I think that does get you more precise counts, but they’re desynced by about an hour. Well, I’ll look at how the next tick of the 24hr tracker compares with your final tally, maybe figure out the answer to my own questio from above.

Edited March 5, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[Eric the Minion]

1 minute ago, Thanos Legion said:

Ahh, I’ve been looking just at the past 24 hour tracker, but you’re using this one: http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/Fandango_track.txt

 

which groups things hourly, is that right? I think that does get you more precise counts, but they’re desynced by about an hour. Well, I’ll look at how the next tick of the 24hr tracker compares with your final tally, maybe figure out the answer to my own questio from above.

Yeah, that's the one I use. I find it to be more accurate and easier to track, even if I technically have to look at more numbers. No  disrespect to the 24 hour clock thing, but that just seems a touch more shaky, and I'd rather take the longer but more accurate approach than just be cheap and do it the quick way.