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Eric Prime

WEEKEND THREAD | 3-DAY ESTIMATES: Pirates - 62M ; Baywatch - 18M; Alien - 10.5M (71% drop) like. F8 crosses 1B OS.

By Eric Prime, in Numbers and Data

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Fancyarcher Global Phenomenon

Fancyarcher

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, The Panda of the Caribbean said:

 

I think streaming is changing that.  Most TV Shows you can now watch at your leisure, allowing for WoM hits like Stranger Things and such.

 

It's harder to get people in front of a TV at a specific time for ratings during the Summer, but it's not a problem with streaming.

 

It also helps that you can watch TV shows instantly. Binge-watching is hugely popular now for a reason. 

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a2k Global Phenomenon

a2k

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What POTC5 legs be like? 2.6, 2.7?

I hope it does 2.75 off the FSS for 170 dom.

POTC4 did 2.65+ without Sunday being inflated so 2.75 could be tough for POTC5.

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Fancyarcher Global Phenomenon

Fancyarcher

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45 minutes ago, Heat Vision said:

Looks like Wonder Woman might cut everything next weekend. 

 

Wonder Woman is possibly going to do 90m (or maybe 100m) + depending on reviews, so I'd say so. 

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Barnack Global Phenomenon

Barnack

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12 hours ago, babz06 said:

All of them will suffer. 

Those 200m+ predictions for Cars 3 seems outrageous, the franchise was never that popular or hyped.

 

It is one of the biggest and most popular modern franchise worldwide:

 

http://articles.latimes.com/2011/jun/21/business/la-fi-ct-cars2-20110621

In the five years since its 2006 release, "Cars" has generated global retail sales approaching $10 billion, according to Disney. That ranks the Pixar film alongside such cinematic merchandising standouts as "Star Wars," "Spider-Man" and "Harry Potter," as well as its own paean to playthings, "Toy Story," according to researcher NPD.

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AHepBurn Cult Classic

AHepBurn

Posted
Posted (edited)
14 hours ago, YourMother said:

Since Pirates, Alien, and likely Transformers 5 (and maybe Cars 3 and DM3 too), I wonder if Spider-Man: Homecoming and Justice League will suffer from fatigue due to previous mediocre movies to the GA (ASM1&2, SM3, SS, BVS, MOS). 

For some of those, yes. For the others, no.

 

Transformers is what it is. It's a franchise that's essentially critic proof, people know what it's all about, and it fills a niche spectacle blockbuster role. I think it'll be the same as prior and decrease domestically, but not appreciably like Pirates 4 to 5 and certainly not from a worldwide gross perspective.

 

Spider-Man: Homecoming shouldn't suffer as I don't think people really view it as a Spider-Man movie but as another RDJ Marvel movie. Which is in large reason why I think Sony essentially "rented" RDJ and the Marvel connections to jump start their "Sony's Marvel Universe."

 

And Justice League is also another special case. Even with harsh critic reviews and seemingly endless trashing from internet bullies, both BvS and SS have pulled in really good numbers where they're averaging around $130mil OW, $300mil DOM, $800mil WW. I think it's a franchise with a very large and really hard core of supporters who, with all the vitriol levied at them by others for liking something that many others don't like, will show up because they genuinely like the universe and are at this point just about tempered to watch things and judge for themselves.

 

Wonder Woman was also the most well received segment in BvS. It looks like her solo movie is going to be well received and she appears again in a matter of months for Justice League. Warner's marketing is the best in the business and they can use that to feature her, the well received Affleck Batman and the currently very en vogue Flash in promos to get people to turn out for Justice League. Snyder unfortunately having to step away to cope with family tragedy and Whedon stepping in to finish the movie is going to help reception of the movie overall since a lot of the hate levied against BvS was targeted toward Snyder himself for whatever issues people have with him personally and with his style. That's a really callous thing to say, but it's sadly the truth of the world.

 

Personally, I just find it fascinating how consistent the numbers are going to look for the DC movies right now and it's entirely going to be due to a variety of factors. BvS and SS had really harsh critical reviews but the star and character power was enough to push them to similar numbers. WW was initially believed to take in a good deal less due to being a female-led superhero movie but with all the great buzz, great reviews, excellent marketing and every movie dying in the box office around it it's looking like it's set to get really close with the previous two movies in the series. It's fascinating in a meta and wide viewpoint sense and I personally can't wait to see what happens with Justice League.

Edited by AHepBurn
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filmlover Cinematic Universe

filmlover

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3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Megan Leavey is basically targeting the same crowd as Gifted; I won't be surprised if it gets up to 1,200.

I imagine they're pretty much targeting the heartland given the premise.

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