Weekend Actuals (Page 130): Cars 53.7M | Wonder Woman 41.3M | All Eyez 26.4M | Mummy 14.5M | 47 Meters 11.2M | POTC 9M | Rough Night 8M

[YM!]

22 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

While I suspect this will be the last Cars film. I imagine the franchise will exist in one form or another. 

They'll do theatrical shorts (like Tokyo Mater with Bolt) or a TV show. 

[YM!]

Just now, aabattery said:

 

I really don't think Disney is in the business of forgetting to market their Pixar movies.

The Good Dinosaur

[The Panda]

Wow 13.1m is great for All Eyez on Me, however I do expect it to be mostly frontloaded.  I do think it could still barely hit or miss 30m.  I also don't think Father's Day is going to give it that much of a bump.

 

Wonder Woman could potentially hit 40m with a 10.7m number, depending on its Saturday increase and Father's Day hold.

[MrPink]

2 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

 

If Branaghstache can't unite the world, what can?

 

Daddy's Home 2.

 

 

[aabattery]

Just now, YourMother said:

The Good Dinosaur

 

They spent 150M marketing that one. Mismarketed, maybe, but they didn't forget about it.

[YM!]

3 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

 

If Branaghstache can't unite the world, what can?

[YM!]

Just now, aabattery said:

 

They spent 150M marketing that one. Mismarketed, maybe, but they didn't forget about it.

Forget may be too harsh of a word. I meant as in less effort for previous animated movies. Or in some cases mismarketed.

[robertman2]

@YourMother one day you will stop overpredicting Sony animated movies. Today is not that day

[kayumanggi]

16 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Outside 22 Jump Street have there been any comedy sequels that came close to matching or surpassing the first movie's success DOM?

 

THE HANGOVER II came close.

[baumer]

Ok, so looking into it further, here are the all the films, regardless of era, to open to 100 mill, on a three day weekend, that had a 3.5X or more.  It's very very select company.

 

The Secret Life of Pets:  104/368...3.53X (same as Spider-man)

The Jungle Book:  103/364....3.53X (sensing a trend here)

Shrek 2 (2004):  108/441...4.08X (it opened on a Wednesday but even if you take out the 20.9 mill it took in on Wed and Thurs, it still has over a 3.5X)

Toy Story 3:  110/415....3.77X

Spider-man:  114/403...3.53X

Finding Dory:  135/486...3.6X

Twilight Breaking Dawn Part II:  141/292...2.07 (just seeing if you're paying attention )

TFA:  247.9/936...3.78X

 

And that's it.  Now look over the list, and you will see that we have 5 animated films, two films from a different era of box office (Shrek 2 and Spidey) and then you will basically have TFA and WW (if it hits the 3.5X....) so if WW does manage to hit 360, it's going to join some ridiculously elite company.

[Zakiyyah6]

12 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Well, this might sound like I'm speaking out of both sides of my mouth because of my discussion with @druv10 but at this point WW's WOM is out of this world.  It's having daily and weekend holds not really seen before for a comic book movie.  I believe MikeQ actually did a comparison for the best multipliers for a comic book movie that opened over 50 million.  I don't have the numbers or films in front of me but I think Spider-man has the best multiplier with 3.5.  For WW to hit that would be pretty crazy.  It would need about 360 million to get there.  We know it's going to come close and for that to happen in this era of the box office is pretty ridiculous.  The only other film in the last ten years (I'll have to double check this...not 100% sure yet) top open to more than 100 mill and have a multiplier over 3.5 is The Force Awakens.  Now I'm not putting WW in the same conversation but WW is definitely doing something special at this point.  

It doesn't sound like you are speaking out of both sides of your mouth to me. Wonder Woman's legs are really great for a comic book movie/big opener.

[YM!]

3 minutes ago, Super Robertman2 Odyssey said:

@YourMother one day you will stop overpredicting Sony animated movies. Today is not that day

Not seeing more than HT1 domestic for HT3, not seeing more than $80M for Goosebumps 2, and definitely not seeing more than $115M for Peter Rabbit or Emoji or Angry Birds 2. Nor did I see over $80M for Smurfs.

 

The Star and Animated Spider-Man are the only ones I'm overpredicting since they have the best potential of the bunch and could do decent business.

Edited June 17, 2017 by YourMother

[aabattery]

1 minute ago, YourMother said:

Forget may be too harsh of a word. I meant as in less effort for previous animated movies. Or in some cases mismarketed.

 

I think it's more that it wasn't that good. Reviews/WOM killed it more than anything else IMO.

 

Call me an optimist, but I think Coco will be good.

[baumer]

3 hours ago, cory said:

Friday openers over $100m (adj) with 3x legs since 2000:

 

Wonder Woman (Summer)
Rogue One (Holiday)
Finding Dory (S)
The Secret Life of Pets (S)
The Jungle Book
The Force Awakens (H)
Jurassic World (S)

Guardians of the Galaxy (S)
The Avengers
Toy Story 3 (S)
The Dark Knight (S)
Iron Man
Pirates of the Caribbean 2 (S)

The Incredibles

Finding Nemo (S)
Spider-Man

Harry Potter 1 (H)

Rush Hour 2 (S)

 

 

Why would you use an adjusted list?

[Ethan Hunt]

But like is the Good Dinosaur actually bad? because actually it's pretty damn good

Edited June 17, 2017 by Ethan Hunt

[crazydom]

The Star is weird because the religious angle could definitely boost it.

[YM!]

3 minutes ago, aabattery said:

 

I think it's more that it wasn't that good. Reviews/WOM killed it more than anything else IMO.

 

Call me an optimist, but I think Coco will be good.

TGD was actually pretty solid but families saved money for a bigger event. I have faith that Coco will be good. I just think in terms of marketing it'll be slightly quieter than most Disney/Pixar movies since Disney has two big efforts to market being Rangarok (which I think has an outside shot of $300M if good) and Jedi. 

Edited June 17, 2017 by YourMother

[kayumanggi]

Hmm. I think there is a chance now for WB to win the year.

[mahnamahna]

31 minutes ago, druv10 said:

It's going to have sub 30% drop this weekend and should have another great hold next weekend. It's a WOM monster and usually competition have very little impact on them. It might drop 50% when SMH opens but it should easily recover after that. 

Even with a $40.5 million 3rd weekend ($274 million 17-day), $380 million is a tough order. It needs to do more than MoS's 2nd weekend for $380 million+ DOM to be a distinct possibility.

 

$23 million 4th weekend ($317 million 24-day)

$15 million 5th weekend ($347 million 31-day)

$7.5 million 6th weekend ($363 million 38-day)

$4 million 7th weekend ($371 million 45-day)

$2 million 8th weekend ($375 million 52-day)

$380-385 million DOM

 

The farther it gets into its run, the less screens it'll have, so it'll be harder to have sub-45% drops once it gets into July.

 

Best case is probably:

$43.5 million ($277 million 17-day)

$26 million ($326 million 24-day)

$17.5 million ($361 million 31-day)

$8.5 million ($379 million 38-day)

$4.5 million ($388 million 45-day)

$2 million ($392 million 52-day)

$397-400 million DOM

 

 

 

 

[cory]

3 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Why would you use an adjusted list?

Mainly for Iron Man and Guardians

 

3.5x obviously there's no need. 

Edited June 17, 2017 by cory