June 23-25 Weekend Thread | TF5 45M, Cars 3 24.0, Wonder Woman 24.9 (10th highest 4th weekend of all time and biggest 4th weekend of 2017)

[The Futurist]

1 hour ago, Telemachos said:

Showing Tele Jr AVATAR. He's pretty into it.  

 

Take note kids, this is how you make a future better world.

[narniadis]

Guru the notorious conservative predictor saying there's a chance at 400m.... by golly I really didn't think we'd have 1 350m film this summer let alone 2.

 

And as for the DM3 convo from earlier, I think we are all talking circles around each other. Nobody is expecting an increase from DM2 and I don't think most are really expecting an increase from Minions. We are just on different sides of the verbiage of the drop. I don't see how it misses 300m IF it opens at or over 100m. a 300m end total would be in line with the drop that Minions had from DM2. I think there are several here who are projecting their dislike of the Minion Movie itself onto DM3 and those folks will be the ones next weekend wondering where the popularity came from.

 

If I am wrong I will admit it - like I have for several films this summer

 

And yes, barring some unforeseen future event DM2 was the peak of the franchise and it just couldn't get to the 1B mark in the proper trilogy. Similar to Ice Age in that regard.

[a2k]

DM3 could be the first sequel post GOTG2 not to disappoint (even though it's likely drop from DM2, which is understandable).

 

And apart from GOTG2 will there be a sequel this year which grows from the predecessor? (Probably Nut Job 2 )

 

EDIT: 

Folks pointed out Thor3. Yeah that one should increase from Thor2.

Apes3 has a shot considering there are whispers that's it's amazing.

Edited June 25, 2017 by a2knet

[Gopher]

I wonder if Disney would bother pushing Guardians to 400. Should top off around 390 before dollar theaters. Get a double feature sort of thing organized with Spiderman and that'd probably do it. 

[aabattery]

3 minutes ago, a2knet said:

 

And apart from GOTG2 will there be a sequel this year which grows from the predecessor? - for the sake of argument let's only consider sequels to movies that did 100+. So exclude Nut Job 2 and such.

 

I think there's a new Thor movie coming out this year. That might increase.

[narniadis]

4 minutes ago, a2knet said:

DM3 could be the first sequel post GOTG2 not to disappoint (even though it's likely drop from DM2, which is understandable).

 

And apart from GOTG2 will there be a sequel this year which grows from the predecessor? (Probably Nut Job 2 )

Burn it with FIRE!

[That One Girl]

1 minute ago, aabattery said:

 

I think there's a new Thor movie coming out this year. That might increase.

 

Seems like a longshot.  Thinking 150M is the ceiling for that one.  Superhero fatigue, sequel fatigue, and shitty Kiwi director fatigue should all kick in.

[narniadis]

2 minutes ago, Gopher said:

I wonder if Disney would bother pushing Guardians to 400. Should top off around 390 before dollar theaters. Get a double feature sort of thing organized with Spiderman and that'd probably do it. 

 

Honestly I doubt they expected it to get this close - not sure Spidey could get it done but maybe that combined with a Labor Day (brazen Idea make double features WW & Guardians!) expansion and it could get close. As it stands its going to be the closest film to 400m without crossing it.

[WrathOfHan]

I'm looking at some comparisons for The Big Sick (435k, 87k PTA) and The Beguiled (241k, 60k PTA) and how they could fare next weekend. Here are Coppola's last, Showalter's last, and some limited openers from the past few months:

 

Spoiler

 

The Bling Ring:

 

OW: 214k from 5 theaters, 43k PTA

2nd Weekend: 2M from 650 theaters, 3k PTA

 

Hello, My Name is Doris:

 

OW: 85k from 4 theaters, 21k PTA

2nd weekend: 1M from 128 theaters, 8k PTA

3rd weekend: 1.7M from 485 theaters, 3k PTA

 

Manchester by the Sea:

 

OW: 256k from 4 theaters, 64k PTA

2nd Weekend: 1.2M from 48 theaters, 26k PTA

3rd Weekend: 2.3M from 156 theaters, 15k PTA

4th weekend: 3.2M from 366 theaters, 9k PTA

 

The Lost City of Z:

 

OW: 110k from 4 theaters, 28k PTA

2nd Weekend: 2.1M from 614 theaters, 3k PTA

 

Patriots Day:

 

OW: 161k from 7 theaters, 23k PTA

 

 

The Big Sick and The Beguiled are in a much better position than any of these movies (save for Manchester on Beguiled). The Big Sick's TC next weekend is unknown, but given Lionsgate's history and the fact it isn't going wide until the 14th, it'll probably be in 50-60 theaters. The Beguiled will be in 550 and should easily outgross what The Bling Ring did a few years back, especially since reviews are good and Focus has more power than A24 did back then.

 

 

 

[CJohn]

7 minutes ago, a2knet said:

DM3 could be the first sequel post GOTG2 not to disappoint (even though it's likely drop from DM2, which is understandable).

 

And apart from GOTG2 will there be a sequel this year which grows from the predecessor? (Probably Nut Job 2 )

Thor 3.

[aabattery]

1 minute ago, That One Guy said:

 

Seems like a longshot.  Thinking 150M is the ceiling for that one.  Superhero fatigue, sequel fatigue, and shitty Kiwi director fatigue should all kick in.

 

[ACSlater]

5 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

shitty Kiwi director fatigue 

 

Kiwi's are the best 

[That One Girl]

Just now, ACSlater said:

 

Kiwi's are the best 

 

They're cool.  Aside from one.  His name rhymes with Haika Naititi.

[cookie]

12 minutes ago, a2knet said:

DM3 could be the first sequel post GOTG2 not to disappoint (even though it's likely drop from DM2, which is understandable).

 

And apart from GOTG2 will there be a sequel this year which grows from the predecessor? (Probably Nut Job 2 )

 

Blade Runner 2049 would have to bomb to a spectacular degree not to...

[Biggestgeekever]

12 minutes ago, a2knet said:

DM3 could be the first sequel post GOTG2 not to disappoint (even though it's likely drop from DM2, which is understandable).

 

And apart from GOTG2 will there be a sequel this year which grows from the predecessor? (Probably Nut Job 2 )

The Last Jedi

 

Spoiler

AHH YESSIR!!!

 

[That One Girl]

14 minutes ago, a2knet said:

DM3 could be the first sequel post GOTG2 not to disappoint (even though it's likely drop from DM2, which is understandable).

 

And apart from GOTG2 will there be a sequel this year which grows from the predecessor? (Probably Nut Job 2 )

 

An Inconvenient Sequel has a shot.

[ACSlater]

1 minute ago, That One Guy said:

 

They're cool.  Aside from one.  His name rhymes with Haika Naititi.

 

My kiwi wife says you are asking for an ass kicking across the islands...

[a2k]

7 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Thor 3.

 

Yeah.

APES3 has a shot too. I will edit my comment  and add them.

[John Marston]

Kingsman 2 will increase 

[That One Girl]

Just now, ACSlater said:

 

My kiwi wife says you are asking for an ass kicking across the islands...

 

Tell her she's probably a cool person .

 

(I'm only talking about a certain director who just happens to be a Kiwi)