June 23-25 Weekend Thread | TF5 45M, Cars 3 24.0, Wonder Woman 24.9 (10th highest 4th weekend of all time and biggest 4th weekend of 2017)

[TwoMisfits]

32 minutes ago, commonsense88 said:

So who you guys think going to win the battle for #2 next week

Baby Driver, House, TF:TLK, or WE.

I think it's going to be a close one unless Baby breaks out.

 

Until I found out House was R, I would have gone with that one...but excluding 1/2 its possible core audience (parents with teens who want to laugh about the process) and now fighting with Baby Driver, probably a much better comedy movie, for the same R rated audience...with ANOTHER comedy, DM3, coming out which will cover the 4 quadrants to a pretty large degree...I'm gonna say the comedies take each other out (which is sad, b/c I want a Baby Driver break out so I can watch that in late July when I have time for another date night after 2 family movie outings of DM3 and Spidey) and Transformers fights it out with Wondey for #2...

 

In a surprise coming from me, I think TF:TLK takes the #2 spot...just seems like dads and sons gave this a weekend boost and I think they'll do that again, b/c they can't go to any R comedy and the upper-range of this combo might wait on DM3...or see both... 

Edited June 25, 2017 by TwoMisfits

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, TwoMisfits said:

 

Until I found out House was R, I would have gone with that one...but excluding 1/2 its possible core audience (parents with teens who want to laugh about the process) and now fighting with Baby Driver, probably a much better comedy movie, for the same R rated audience...with ANOTHER comedy, DM3, coming out which will cover the 4 quadrants to a pretty large degree...I'm gonna say the comedies take each other out (which is sad, b/c I want a Baby Driver break out so I can watch that in late July when I have time for another date night after 2 family movie outings of DM3 and Spidey) and Transformers fights it out with Wondey for #2...

 

In a surprise coming from me, I think TF:TLK takes the #2 spot...just seems like dads and sons gave this a weekend boost and I think they'll do that again, b/c they can't go to any R comedy and the upper-range of this combo might wait in DM3...or see both... 

Er, The House is a raunchy R rated comedy; they weren't going to tone it down so kids could see it with their parents  

[TwoMisfits]

4 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Er, The House is a raunchy R rated comedy; they weren't going to tone it down so kids could see it with their parents  

 

But it shouldn't have been...and the previews I've seen (on Baywatch and WW) don't play that part up...I think it was a REALLY bad call to go that route with that concept...but we'll know after next weekend if it was...

 

I mean, it's a "Vegas mafia in the home" concept, not a sexual fantasy concept...that can be easily made PG-13...

Edited June 25, 2017 by TwoMisfits

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, TwoMisfits said:

 

But it shouldn't have been...and the previews I've seen (on Baywatch and WW) don't play that part up...I think it was a REALLY bad call to go that route with that concept...but we'll know after next weekend if it was...

 

[YM!]

Justice League is increasing.

[Zakiyyah6]

Yep, that Sunday estimate for Cars is absurd.

[aabattery]

3 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

But it shouldn't have been...and the previews I've seen (on Baywatch and WW) don't play that part up...I think it was a REALLY bad call to go that route with that concept...but we'll know after next weekend if it was...

 

I mean, it's a "Vegas mafia in the home" concept, not a sexual fantasy concept...

 

Trying to make that concept family-friendly would be a very weird choice. I don't think the rating is going to be what makes the movie fail.

[a2k]

1 minute ago, Gopher said:

I wonder if Disney would bother pushing Guardians to 400. Should top off around 390 before dollar theaters. Get a double feature sort of thing organized with Spiderman and that'd probably do it. 

 

At 388+ the difference between GOTG2 and CW will be <20m. Amazing considering CW was an ensemble with MCU biggies. GOTG characters are huge now. TA2 fell steeply from TA1 but if TA3 recovers well, it could be thanks to GOTG appearances. Things coming full circle. First TA1's goodwill raises the BO of subsequent MCU films. Now a franchise like GOTG which started post TA has goodwill that could prevent a TA sequel by dropping further.

[Zakiyyah6]

The House isn't PG: 13? I assumed it was.

[TwoMisfits]

Just now, aabattery said:

 

Trying to make that concept family-friendly would be a very weird choice. I don't think the rating is going to be what makes the movie fail.

 

Not for 6 year olds, obviously...but something that could be a 13+ (like PG-13 really is) movie would not be hard...

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

The House isn't PG: 13? I assumed it was.

 

See, it wasn't just me...that's how they've sold this...

[ZeeSoh]

32 minutes ago, commonsense88 said:

So who you guys think going to win the battle for #2 next week

Baby Driver, House, TF:TLK, or WE.

I think it's going to be a close one unless Baby breaks out.

 

I think it will be a close fight between TF and WW. If the 25.1 for WW holds this weekend and giving it a 35% drop next weekend will mean a 16.3 weekend. For TF to match it, it would need to drop 64% or better. No transformers movie has fallen that much in it's second weekend although AOE came close with 63% fall. This one has worse reception than the other Tf movie so it could fall that hard but since it opened on a weekday means its weekend was deflated which could lead to a better hold next weekend.

 

Baby Driver opens on wednesday so it will burn off some demand. It has great reviews going for it but presales have been weak. House seems to be heading towards a very low opening based on presales also. Cars will suffer a worse drop than WW due to direct competition.

 

So I would say a tough fight between WW & TF for 2nd position with TF edging it ( baby driver is a wildcard, I dont know what to expect from it).

[a2k]

16 minutes ago, ACSlater said:

 

Kiwi's are the best 

I love Kiwis.

Good source of vitamin c.

[That One Girl]

3 minutes ago, aabattery said:

 

Trying to make that concept family-friendly would be a very weird choice. I don't think the rating is going to be what makes the movie fail.

 

It can be easy to make it PG-13.  Take out the cursing and remove the brief nudity from the strip club scene, and maybe tone down the scene where a guy's finger gets chopped off, then you have yourself a PG-13 movie.

[teardropmina]

if the Wondy number is accurate, the Cars' is probably overestimated by 2M. 

[aabattery]

Just now, TwoMisfits said:

 

Not for 6 year olds, obviously...but something that could be a 13+ (like PG-13 really is) movie would not be hard...

 

Eh. The filmmakers and cast are probably happier with an R-rating. There's not much point neutering the film for an audience that isn't really going to be interested in the first place. Opening an underground casino isn't really that appealing to younger demo's IMO. Nor should it be, I guess. 

[Johnny Tran]

36 minutes ago, a2knet said:

 

Wonder why they care so much when it's not even the OW and they are not going to grab headlines anyway as TF is no. 1.

Reviews have been long out and wom has been spreading for 10 days.

If they care so much, should not have released so close to DM3. Next weekend nothing will be worth manipulating.

 

I'm not one for conspiracy theories but I guess it's about optics. Having your Pixar movie of the summer falling behind Wonder Woman in it's second weekend isn't a good look. 

[a2k]

14 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

An Inconvenient Sequel has a shot.

Ah...forgot about that completely.

Now sure if it can do 24+. See how much even Michael Moore docus do off late.

But then it's more pertinent than ever. So who knows.

[That One Girl]

1 minute ago, aabattery said:

 

Eh. The filmmakers and cast are probably happier with an R-rating. There's not much point neutering the film for an audience that isn't really going to be interested in the first place. Opening an underground casino isn't really that appealing to younger demo's IMO. Nor should it be, I guess. 

 

What is appealing to a younger demo, however, is Will Ferrell.  Look how well Daddy's Home did with families over Christmas last year.  It was pretty much the family movie to see after Star Wars.

[DAR]

Richard Roeper said there  won't be a screening of the House.  

 

https://twitter.com/richardroeper/status/878438125659463680

Edited June 25, 2017 by DAR