5-day Weekend #s: DM3 99M, BD 29.97M, WW 24.07M, TF5 24.05M, Cars 3 14.2M, House 11.9M

[filmlover]

Just now, CJohn said:

Despicable Me 3 really is Shrek 4. Goddamn. The brand has what? One movie left in it? DM3 is opening above DM2 in many markets.

I think it definitely would've held on better had Minions not left such a sour taste.

[cookie]

3 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Despicable Me 3 really is Shrek 4. Goddamn. The brand has what? One movie left in it? DM3 is opening above DM2 in many markets.

 

I think DM can keep going for a while longer since they're made at a much lower cost than the Shrek movies. Shrek 4 was $165m while DM3 was only $75m. DM4 would have to hit IA5 levels for them to call it quits I think.

Edited July 3, 2017 by cookie

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

 

Yeah, I have no idea why Sony is releasing that in the summer. It'll get over 100M, but the other two were big successes largely due to their time of the year.

I think KFP3 numbers is best case scenario for it.

[a2k]

72.4 3-day

-20% on Mon gives 15 (from 19.1 Sunday)

-10% on Tue gives 13.6

 

72.4 + 15 + 13.6 = 101 5-day; Probably can go up to 103-104 5-day.

 

Edited July 3, 2017 by a2knet

[TwoMisfits]

2 minutes ago, XO21 said:

 

Weren't DM3 presales on par with Pets?

 

or I missread 

 

They were...which meant Pets didn't presell (and that was a "grow through the weekend" BO movie, like WW) or DM3 got much less walk up...or both...

 

Just shows presales only mean so much...I'm betting a lot of walk up of the 18+ crowd went to Baby Driver b/c it had the newness and the better critical reception...before, they might have all decided to see Minions just because...

 

Thus Baby Driver actually grew through the weekend and had a higher Sunday than Friday...

[YM!]

Animation in 2018, I can see potentially only three movies over the $200M mark domestically, Incredibles 2, Grinch, and Spider-Man: The Animated Movie, and that one is a longshot. 2018 looks kind of weak for animated movies.

[CJohn]

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I think it definitely would've held on better had Minions not left such a sour taste.

I agree, but Minions is pretty bad and boring. As a person who enjoyed DM1 and DM2, Minions was definitely a disappointment. 

[Jonwo]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

This is some weird hybrid of Shrek and Ice Age. As long as OS audiences continue eating the series up, Universal will make more.

 

I imagine we'll get Minions 2 and DM4 but I think once the films fall under $100m domestically, Universal will end the franchise.

[Biggestgeekever]

If Universal really does do Minions 2 before DM4, then the latter will definitely perform like Ice Age 5 around the world.

[filmlover]

Does anyone here have the balls to make a Despicable Me 3 over/under Superman Returns ($200M) club?  That was the main event of the last time the dates were aligned. 

[TwoMisfits]

A weird note about DM3...many of my theaters showed more 3d than 2d showings...and those did not sell...

 

This also happened with CU...I'm not sure why theaters are making this call, but it's not working.  Families obviously have a "price willing to pay" and it's not 3d prices, especially when their kids 5 and under wouldn't wear the glasses anyway...

 

If you looked at presales, every cheap showing around me also sold out...so families are willing to show up at 9-10am and go out of their way time-wise, BUT not out of their way money-wise...again, just goes to show there is an optimal price and current 3d ticket prices with no discounts isn't it...

[titanic2187]

10 minutes ago, CJohn said:

4
5

0

0

 

T

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E
A
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S

I think some theater manager can't wait until 3rd weekend to drop it....they'll just drop it in 2nd week

[miketheavenger]

@WrathOfHan once again making a ridiculous prediction for DM3 as he's gloating about its underperformance. There's no way on this earth that DM3 will end up below 200m.

[KeepItU25071906]

21 minutes ago, cookie said:

 

So all the openers were overestimated. Ouch.

WW wasn't overestimated. 

[narniadis]

Sheesh.... it may not hit my pre-open expectations in the 5 day..... *sigh* Summer game is definitely over now....

[cannastop]

20 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I think it definitely would've held on better had Minions not left such a sour taste.

I think it's just good old fashioned fatigue.

[GrimFandango]

22 minutes ago, filmlover said:

This summer has been rough on sequels to aging franchises. Alien collapsed, Pirates lost 30% of its previous gross (and a sixth movie would only go down again), Cars will be lucky to cross $150M, Transformers sank like a stone, and Despicable Me is looking to be the lowest-grossing in the franchise by quite a bit. Add to that comedies are being ignored and can you really blame everyone for going nuts over the superhero movies? At least Baby Driver's looking to be an original breakout, thankfully.

 

I think it less sequel fatigue, and more crappy story fatigue. I've only got so many dollars and so much time to see a movie in the theater, so I'm pickier about what I spend those dollars and time on. I don't want to waste them on characters I've already seen who are in a story that's either boring or non-nonsensical. Besides being sequels, the other common factor in all these failed films are bad scripts/stories.

 

With Rotten Tomatoes being so influential now and people getting the word-of-mouth instantly via social media, audiences are more informed and now have two major factors to reference before going to the movie: If RT scores are bad, it means most reviewers didn't like the movie. That alone will drive away quite a few people, but if it doesn't--it makes people wait to see what the general audience responses are. If RT scores are bad, and word-of-mouth is bad, then forget it. Opening day might be the only day the studio gets a "freebie" on any more. We're already seeing that with Despicable and other recent movies where the first night opens OK, but the next night is already down and then the movie tanks within the first week.

 

I think (or certainly hope) this summer serves as a time of reckoning for studios: great writers and writing should be as revered as directors. In my opinion, Alien Covenant's shitty script killed its legs despite Ridley's directing genius. Transformers made NO SENSE AT ALL despite Bay's penchant for bombastic, amazing visuals; and it seemed Bay gave zero shits about having a good story for his franchise. Pirates turned Captain Sparrow slowly into a slap-sticky, bumbling less-likable caricature of his Black Pearl character. Cars felt like a cash-grab without the sincerity and charm of Pixar's better films.

 

Sequel-itis to me isn't the problem as much as just wanting to see a good movie. Alien has HUGE potential--I'll gladly see another Alien film if it has the smartness of the first two films. Transformers has so many better ways the story could be explored rather than cutting-and-pasting from every previous one--there's tons of material to source from there.

 

As for the comedies? Again, killed by bad writing. Hell, Wonder Woman was funnier than most comedies recently put out there, and SM:H looks like it will likely be funnier than them too. 

[cookie]

4 minutes ago, miketheavenger said:

@WrathOfHan once again making a ridiculous prediction for DM3 as he's gloating about its underperformance. There's no way on this earth that DM3 will end up below 200m.

 

Same multi as Minions from that Deadline estimate would give DM3 $210m. There's a possibility DM3 just crawls over $200m.

[a2k]

1 minute ago, narniadis said:

Sheesh.... it may not hit my pre-open expectations in the 5 day..... *sigh* Summer game is definitely over now....

It's 5-day could come below Pets ow. That's something I just didn't see coming considering Mon and Tue gonna have strong holds.

[filmlover]

I guess now the question will be is if Despicable Me 3 finishes below The Lorax's $214M to become Illumination's lowest grosser (not counting the anomaly that was Hop).