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CJohn

Weekend Thread 7/7-7/9 | ABSOLUTELY NO SPOILERS ALLOWED | SMH 117M, DM3 34M, BD 12.5M, WW 10.1M, TF5 6.3M, Biggus Dickus 3.65

By CJohn, in Numbers and Data

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DeeCee Global Phenomenon

DeeCee

Posted
Posted

Just 1 day is more than half the OW of TASM2

 

Most Popular Films For Period Weekend, April 17 - 21, 2014
WIR = Weeks In Release
No WIR Title $ %
Total $
1 1 THE AMAZING SPIDER-MAN 2: RISE OF ELECTRO (M), SONY PICTURES [520/ $10,284] 5,347,525 N/A
6,632,435
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Cmasterclay Global Phenomenon

Cmasterclay

Posted
Posted

If this disappoints, and I'm not saying it will, it needs to be the easiest what went wrong discussion in board history. It's a very well-reviewed Spider-Man movie with a ton of marketing, an empty release date, and Iron Man in it. If it doesn't live up to expectation, the reason is what it always has been: people are sick of this rebooting Spider-Man shit. It's become a running joke for a reason. I'm glad this movie is apparently excellent but I think apprehension about it is very, very fair.

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cannastop Global Phenomenon

cannastop

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said:

If this disappoints, and I'm not saying it will, it needs to be the easiest what went wrong discussion in board history. It's a very well-reviewed Spider-Man movie with a ton of marketing, an empty release date, and Iron Man in it. If it doesn't live up to expectation, the reason is what it always has been: people are sick of this rebooting Spider-Man shit. It's become a running joke for a reason. I'm glad this movie is apparently excellent but I think apprehension about it is very, very fair.

Or maybe it's just straight-up Spider-Man fatigue.

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Cmasterclay Global Phenomenon

Cmasterclay

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, cannastop said:

Or maybe it's just straight-up Spider-Man fatigue.

Right. We don't really know - Batman and Superman are the only other superheroes with this many film appearances and the only major superheros to switch actors. Mixed data. Could just be both together.

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DealWithIt Indie Sensation

DealWithIt

Posted
Posted

 

22 minutes ago, SpiritComix said:

The last Spider-Man films have hurt 'Spider-Man: Homecoming'. I've been saying this for some time.

 

Three bad movies, 13 years, it's too much...

 

And don't tell me "But the fans of the cinematic Spider-Man since 2002". The decline is clear and strong in the last films. People in general became more and more tired of the character after three bad movies in a row (and two reboots). 

 

Also don't tell me "I believe Captain America: Civil War has recovered the character". No. 20 good minutes of a character in a Captain America movie, with several other good characters could never recover so much damage at once. Things are not so simple.

 

Also don't come up with "But it's Spider-Man, everyone loves Spider-Man". It has been more than proven that audiences who watch superhero films are more interested in new things. GOTG was bigger than ASM2 in 2014, Doctor Strange did very well, Deadpool and Suicide Squad were huge, Wonder Woman too.

 

 

Homecoming is going to open to over $100 million dollars with rave reviews. Yeah. Those three previous movies sure killed the hype. 

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baumer Cinematic Universe

baumer

Posted
Posted

First time on the forums all day and thank you too Grim for letting you guys know about the gold account for one month for opening day. I assume most of you are sending me opening day predictions. So I will check my messages when I get home. Good luck to all of you.

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DealWithIt Indie Sensation

DealWithIt

Posted
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It's good to see the opening weekend cycle isn't broken at least. "Disappointing" preview numbers that will inevitably go up as the West Coast numbers start coming in? CUE THE DOOM AND GLOOM!!

 

always good for a laugh

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a2k Global Phenomenon

a2k

Posted
Posted (edited)

If GA's reception matches critic's reception, then SM:H is going to be a very leggy film especially since the summer has been low on comedy and good breezy films.

So the entire range of 90-110 feels the same to me. It's gonna have strong wom and any 'disappointments' at bo will be made up by the sequel.

 

We have seen that repeatedly, for good or bad, you pay for your predecessor.

 

Cars2 opened big and did 191 despite being crap thanks to Cars1. And Cars3 opened small and will end up below 150 despite being a good film, thanks to Cars2. Minions seem to have affected DM3 to some degree. OST affected DMTNT event though in each case the movie seems to be better than the predecessor : Cars3>Cars2,  DM3>Minions, DMTNT>OST. And SM:H is following ASM2 as a full-length Spidey movie.

 

If SM:H does something leggy like 95 ow/ 2.9x /275 dom  ... one can expect SM:H2 to reap the rewards, irrespective of it's own quality by getting a bigger ow.

Edited by a2knet
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Rman823 Box Office Gold

Rman823

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, DealWithIt said:

It's good to see the opening weekend cycle isn't broken at least. "Disappointing" preview numbers that will inevitably go up as the West Coast numbers start coming in? CUE THE DOOM AND GLOOM!!

 

always good for a laugh

Will probably continue through the weekend as numbers are good but slightly below some expectations. 

 

5 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

I almost did.

 

(also the movie is probably upper tier MCU and the 3rd best Spider-Man so it has that going for it)

As a Spidey fan it's going to have a hard time topping the first 2 for me. 

Edited by Rman823
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MikeQ Box Office Gold

MikeQ

Posted
Posted

If Deadlne's "$10+ million" turns out to be $10-11 million for Thursday previews, that could turn out to be a weekend right around where tracking was pegging it (over $100 million). 

 

The Amazing Spider-Man 2's preview gross was 9.5% of its total weekend gross - if Homecoming is the same, then $10-11 million in previews would lead to a strong $105-115 million weekend. 

 

Perhaps Amazing Spider-Man 2 is considered too "old" of a comparison at this point (and it opened in May rather than July), but even if the share of opening weekend coming from previews is somewhat larger, say 10-12% (Wonder Woman [10.7%], GOTG Vol. 2 [11.6%], Winter Soldier [10.7%], and Ant-Man [11.2%] all fell in this range) that could similarly lead to an over $100 million weekend if Deadline's $10+ million really means somewhere around $11-12M or so.

 

Spidey tends to skew younger with audiences, right? I trust it will have a strong weekend and pull out over $100 million, and Deadline is pulling out some really early (and kind of vague/open) numbers - they could go up by tomorrow.


Peace,

Mike

 

 

 

 

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Rman823 Box Office Gold

Rman823

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Johnny Tran said:

It's not even 8pm on the west coast and the meltdowns have begun.  This is going to be one hell of a roller coaster.  

 

tenor.gif

Wouldn't be an MCU weekend thread without them. 

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