Weekend Actuals (Page 32): THB 10.3M | Annabelle 7.7M | Leap 4.7M | Wind River 4.6M | Logan Lucky 4.2M | Dragon 2.7M | Where are the clowns, cults, and Cruise when you need them?

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, Maxmoser3 said:

My original Gravity projection is more likely. 

 

[WrathOfHan]

I'll repost what I said in the Blade Runner thread yesterday on why it won't gross insanely high numbers:

 

 

20 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Possible but not likely IMO. Blade Runner has a couple of things going against it:

 

1. The 2:30 runtime (potentially 2:40 if that isn't including credits) will reduce showtimes. If a theater opens at 11 and closes at 9 on a weekday with 3:30 between showings, Blade Runner will only have 3 showings per screen. This will be a bigger issue later in its run when it's down to one screen.

2. Blade Runner is really only familiar to sci-fi fans.

3. The long runtime could turn off people who aren't fans of/familiar with the original.

4. It's a very slow sci-fi film, so that aspect could turn off the GA too.

 

I had Kingsman at 45/116 and this at 40/100

Basically it's a matter of whether or not the GA goes for it, and I don't think a substantial portion will.

Edited August 28, 2017 by WrathOfHan

[dxmatrixdt]

lol, what is with Cars 3 large 37% Sunday drop relative to everything else?

[filmlover]

Blade Runner and (I guess) Boo 2 are the only October releases that are guaranteed to make $50M IMO. It's gonna be a quiet month leading up to Thor and the other November heavy hitters, and I'm guessing studios thought Blade Runner would be a much bigger deal than it's looking to be.

[dxmatrixdt]

I think Blade Runner does more like 25-35 OW

[WrathOfHan]

I know a defense on high Blade Runner predictions I see often is "Audiences went for Arrival, so they'll go for Blade Runner!", but Arrival is 35-45 minutes shorter than Blade Runner 2049 and benefited from a relatively empty marketplace until Rogue One; it was going up and down from 3-5 on the charts all the way until December 16. Blade Runner will win its OW and potentially second weekend, but it'll be out of the Top 5 by the end of October if not the 20th. This also isn't being marketed like Arrival and is showcasing the action setpieces in the trailers while ignoring most of the philosophical stuff. Mismarketing is never good for legs.

Edited August 28, 2017 by WrathOfHan

[Barnack]

56 minutes ago, Maxmoser3 said:

Spectre relied on overseas, since its budget was nearly $250 million minus P&A costs. Passengers did fine internationally, and proved with holiday legs that $100 million can happen.

Spectre probably made them a bit less than 30m, the big budget is in good part (50%) paid by the co-financier:

SPE funds 50.0%; MGM 75.0% equity; no fees; SPE distrib. WW Theatrical only, 11/6/15 Release

56 minutes ago, Maxmoser3 said:

American Hustle, This Is The End, Skyfall, Sausage Party, and Don't Breathe (just to name a few) have been Sony's more profitable films in recent memory. 

Hustle was a bit like Logan Lucky/Valerian for Sony, production budget paid by market pre-sales, heavily co-financed, lot of people paid on the low range in exchange of back ends points, not that big of a profit.

 

Well 25m is big versus the almost nill risk and the almost $0 budget, but not that big on the Sony bottom line, the movie was a split 50/50 production with Anna Purnana (that paid for half the releasing cost and so on) and with about half the profit pass a certain point going to the stars, the movie made probably around 100m in profit, but only 25.5m went to Sony.

 

Some of the profitable 2014/2013/2012 release (purely from Sony pov)

 

Hotel Transylvania: 88.5m

Amazing spider man: 69.8m

21 jump street: 58.6m

Skyfall: 57m

Cloudy 2: 56.75m

The vow: 53.4m

This is the end: 52m 

Heaven is for real: 50.9m

Django Unchained: 50.86m

Captain Philips: 50.16m

Grown Ups 2: 49.9m

22 jump street: 45.54m

Think like a man: 42.8m

Underworld awakening: 32m

American Hustle: 25.5m

Insidious chapter 2: 21.48m

Evil dead remake: 20.9m

Elysium: 20.45m

One direction This is us: 17.4m

Smurfs 2: 17.1m

 

 

Last year you can add The shallows, Angry Birds, When the Bough Breaks to that list of nice profitable movies, in 2017 I imagine Resident Evil did well, they have a nice track record.

 

p.s. looking at that list show how loosing Lord&Miller and Sandler were big hits for Sony, not necessarily smaller than say loosing Bond distribution deal would be.

Edited August 28, 2017 by Barnack

[dxmatrixdt]

historically, I do not think films like Blade Runner perform well.  I can already forsee the disappointment.  However, I do hope I am wrong.  I would love this thing to be a big hit!

[dxmatrixdt]

Looks like most of the actuals in the top 20 are coming from Sony, WB, and Weinstein.  Nap Time!!!

[Ethan Hunt]

Blade Runner ain't getting close to The Martian

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, Matrix4You said:

historically, I do not think films like Blade Runner perform well.  I can already forsee the disappointment.  However, I do hope I am wrong.  I would love this thing to be a big hit!

Agreed! Audiences embracing a film like Blade Runner would be a great thing and maybe show studios that slower films aren't a bad thing. I don't think this will be one of those cases unfortunately. 

[Ethan Hunt]

I mean I think Blade Runner well do well. 40/120 with a decent overseas take hopefully.

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

I know a defense on high Blade Runner predictions I see often is "Audiences went for Arrival, so they'll go for Blade Runner!", but Arrival is 35-45 minutes shorter than Blade Runner 2049 and benefited from a relatively empty marketplace until Rogue One; it was going up and down from 3-5 on the charts all the way until December 16. Blade Runner will win its OW and potentially second weekend, but it'll be out of the Top 5 by the end of October. This also isn't being marketed like Arrival and is showcasing the action setpieces in the trailers while ignoring most of the philosophical stuff. Mismarketing is never good for legs.

I'm pretty sure the reason people have been so high on it have been a number of other factors (being the long-in-development-hell sequel to an iconic beloved classic, the original's star returning to one of his most iconic roles, a much younger co-star currently on a hot streak alongside him, a rapidly rising acclaimed director whose previous movies were embraced by audiences to various degrees). Not really difficult to see why other studios were afraid to put anything big around it. If it ends up a quality movie (which it probably will) it should easily see a sizeable opening (I'm thinking it opens in the Mad Max: Fury Road area atm) and then from there it'll depend on reviews/word-of-mouth.

[WrathOfHan]

What I'm projecting for Blade Runner:

 

Oct 6: 40M (13M weekdays, 53M Total)

Oct 13: 16M (5.7M weekdays, 74.7M Total)

Oct 20: 8M (2.8M weekdays, 85.5M Total)

Oct 27: 4.4M (1.5M weekdays, 91.4M Total)

Nov 3: 2M (700k weekdays, 94.1M Total)

Nov 10: 1M (300k weekdays, 95.4M Total)

 

Final Total: 100M (2.5x)

 

I'm stretching a bit on the fudge but meh

[Ethan Hunt]

I don't see why the legs would be that weak

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, Ethan Hunt said:

I don't see why the legs would be that weak

Chances are it's fanbase driven and frontloaded. 

[WrathOfHan]

Putting some more thought into the number of showings dilemma, what will happen to 3D showings? When Blade Runner only has 3 shows per day at most locations starting October 20, would they really want to bother with a token 3D show at that point? It could lose 3D pretty fast.

[CJohn]

I think Blade Runner can be a really big WOM hit over October and do something like 45/175

[LonePirate]

I have no interest in reading Blade Runner predictions by anyone who thought Valerian would be a big hit.

[cookie]

Unless Blade Runner is shit it's going to have decent legs at worst.