Weekend Thread | Actuals (p.100) ~ Thor: Ragnarok - 122.744M, Bad Moms 2 16.759M, Jigsaw 6.558M, Boo 2 4.451M, Geostorm 3.194M | GOLD ACCOUNT SALE (1st post for details) | 91k PTA for Lady Bird

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, The Last baumer said:

 

Yea, on a 128 OW.  If Thor goes that high then I agree 300 is very likely.  If it opens to 120, it could miss.  The higher it opens, the better chances of 300, obviously.  I think it gets a 2.4X, So if it opens higher than 125,I concede that it will hit 300.

I just don't see how much a better received and reviewed movie would miss a mark that one of the most disliked MCU movies hit. I'm not even huge on Ragnarok based on what I know of it, I just think it's so unlikely that until we were to see a bad 2nd weekend drop that it's not worth talking about yet if that makes sense.

[baumer]

3 hours ago, Mulder said:

I just don't see how much a better received and reviewed movie would miss a mark that one of the most disliked MCU movies hit. I'm not even huge on Ragnarok based on what I know of it, I just think it's so unlikely that until we were to see a bad 2nd weekend drop that it's not worth talking about yet if that makes sense.

 

Well, what's a bad second weekend drop? It's guaranteed to drop close to 60% in the second weekend because that's what super hero films do.  So I don't think it's the second weekend drop is going to tell us anything, unless it drops by something incredible like 50%.  

 

Wasn't Iron Man 3 really well liked?  It had an A cinemascore and it finished with less than a 2.4X.

[ZattMurdock]

4 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

Veterans Day and Thanksgiving coming up.  It will cruise past $300m

I'm with EC on this one. It will cruise $300m with ease, and I'd say it has a legit shot of going over Spider-Man: Homecoming, even with Justice League and The Last Jedi ahead. 

[Gopher]

120 mil opening is locked with that estimate. Incredible year for Marvel. Three 300 mil movies, all critically acclaimed, on the heels of what seems like even greater promise to come between Panther and Infinity War. 

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, The Last baumer said:

 

Well, what's a bad second weekend drop? It's guaranteed to drop close to 60% in the second weekend because that's what super hero films do.  So I don't think it's the second weekend drop is going to tell us anything, unless it drops by something incredible like 50%.  

 

Wasn't Iron Man really well liked?  It had an A cinemascore and it finished with less than a 2.4X.

Iron Man 2 got a mixed reception at best and is commonly talked about as one of the worst entries in the MCU, this is why CinemaScore isn't exactly valid imo. Good point on the 2nd weekend drop though, we'll see what happens I just think that based on the OW there's no reason to think it'd miss 300 at this point in time.

[ZattMurdock]

2 minutes ago, The Last baumer said:

 

Well, what's a bad second weekend drop? It's guaranteed to drop close to 60% in the second weekend because that's what super hero films do.  So I don't think it's the second weekend drop is going to tell us anything, unless it drops by something incredible like 50%.  

 

Wasn't Iron Man really well liked?  It had an A cinemascore and it finished with less than a 2.4X.

Nine years ago. We live in 2017 and Thor: Ragnarok is one of the most well reviewed superhero films of all time. This is going for a Deadpoolesque type of run, and while it'll probably fall under that domestically, it is topping it worldwide. So yes. don't see $300m not happening here. 

[baumer]

3 hours ago, iJackSparrow said:

Nine years ago. We live in 2017 and Thor: Ragnarok is one of the most well reviewed superhero films of all time. This is going for a Deadpoolesque type of run, and while it'll probably fall under that domestically, it is topping it worldwide. So yes. don't see $300m not happening here. 

 

I'm talking about IM3.  Not Iron Man, sorry.

[baumer]

3 hours ago, iJackSparrow said:

Nine years ago. We live in 2017 and Thor: Ragnarok is one of the most well reviewed superhero films of all time. This is going for a Deadpoolesque type of run, and while it'll probably fall under that domestically, it is topping it worldwide. So yes. don't see $300m not happening here. 

 

I doubt it's getting a 2.75X.

[aabattery]

2.75 is a big ask. And the "best reviewed of all-time" bit is disingenuous at best.

 

That being said, I don't think it'll go as low as 2.4.

[baumer]

3 hours ago, aabattery said:

2.75 is a big ask. I don't think it'll go as low as 2.4 though.

 

Just out of curiosity, why do you think it will have a better multiplier than IM3 and Civil War?  Because it opened less?

[Mulder]

Just now, The Last baumer said:

 

Just out of curiosity, why do you think it will have a better multiplier than IM3 and Civil War?  Because it opened less?

Iron Man 3 didn't get a glowing reception and Civil War was a pretty depressing movie and was also super fanboy centric compared to Ragnarok.

[XO21]

With a 50-60% drop the second weekend and JL in the third weekend I'd wait before throwing a multi above 2.5 around 

[aabattery]

3 minutes ago, The Last baumer said:

 

Just out of curiosity, why do you think it will have a better multiplier than IM3 and Civil War?  Because it opened less?

 

Because I am a biased fanboy who does not want his movie to fail.

 

Also I don't think it's too unreasonable to assume it'll act more like Guardians 2 than either of those. JL definitely has the potential to throw a huge spanner in the works though, so I guess we'll see.

[ZeeSoh]

The average MCU legs are about 2.73x. The only MCU movies, apart from the huge ones, to miss 2.5 legs have been Thor2 (2.42x), IM2 (2.43x) and hulk (2.44x). 

 

These three are considered to be the 3 worst MCU movie which could explain their short leg. I find it doubtful that Thor 3, being one of the best reviewed MCU, has the same multi as these movies. I don't see less than 2.5x legs which if Thor opens to 120 gets it to 300. 

 

But I'd rather wait for actual OW numbers before I start saying 300 is a lock

[MrGlass2]

4 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Iron Man 3 didn't get a glowing reception and Civil War was a pretty depressing movie and was also super fanboy centric compared to Ragnarok.

Thor+Hulk is fanboy friendly enough.

[ZattMurdock]

47 minutes ago, The Last baumer said:

 

I'm talking about IM3.  Not Iron Man, sorry.

Oh, I absolutely adore and worship Iron Man 3. With that said, sorry @That One Guy, but IM3 doesn't hold a candle to Ragnarok. Also, IM3 is in a complete different scenario and it's more of an acquired taste next to the universal praise that Ragnarok is getting. IM3 was way more frontloaded and opened north to 180m after The Avengers, that's not what is happening here. Rogue One has more in common with IM3 than Ragnarok when it comes to where the box office run is hinting at.

 

I'd argue that Ragnarok and Homecoming are with Guardians, The Winter Soldier, The Avengers and Iron Man. They are game changers for the MCU, for different reasons, with arguably The Avengers and Vol. 1 being the more important for the universe as a whole.

 

With that said, what I see in Ragnarok is more like Deadpool: Excellent marketing campaign that delivers a crowd pleaser film that has more layers than most pay attention for in films of this genre. Taika is going places, and this film is in for an excellent and lengthy box office run, with good odds of making around $125m this weekend. From there, I give a 2.7x multiplier minimum, which is the average of MCU multipliers, for something around $330-340m, with actual good shot of actually going even higher than that.

Edited November 4, 2017 by iJackSparrow

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, MrGlass2 said:

Thor+Hulk is fanboy friendly enough.

But no where near as fanboy centric as Civil War was which required having watched basically the entire MCU besides for Guardians and the Thor films up until that point.

[grey ghost]

No fucking way this gets the same multiplier as Thor 2 (2.4).

 

That makes no sense at all.

 

Also the funniest MCU movies have the best legs in MCU.

 

I'm with iJack.

 

We're looking at GotG2 or SMH legs at the very minimum.

[Darth Lehnsherr]

So.....reckon STXfilms regrets opening A Bad Moms Christmas on a Wednesday and not in December too?

[MCKillswitch123]

I do not see Ragnarok missing a 2.5x multiplier. HOWEVER, Justice League will hit it pretty hard, and make those 300M chances quite tough to achieve. We saw Doctor Strange collapse against Fantastic Beasts last year, and FB went for the same demographic but it wasn't even in the same genre.

 

The one thing Ragnarok has going for it to survive JLA's opening is that Guardians 2 held on pretty strongly against Wonder Woman (52% drop). But JLA is bound to be a much bigger opener than WW anyway, so it's a wait and see situation.