Weekend Thread | Estimates: T:R 57.08M, DH2 29.65M, MOTOE 28.68M, ABMC 11.47M, 32.4K PTA for Lady Bird (Deadline, p.46) | The box office is good again!

[Finnick]

THOR RAGNAROK CROSSED $650M WW, YAAAAAAAAAY

 

Edited November 12, 2017 by Finnick

[Mr Impossible]

Holy Sh-t it’s already at $650M WW! $800M is locked, $900M is possible.

[Ezen Baklattan]

With that weekend, and looking at historic trends, I'd be surprised if MOTOE increased on Saturday after all, or had a smaller than expected increase. Should catch up to DH2 fairly easily over weekdays.

[MrPink]

7 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Funny book trash doesn't matter here.

 

 

 

You might have a case, but the literal definition of Funny Book Trash was the #2 highest grossing film of last year 

Edited November 12, 2017 by MrPink

[MrFanaticGuy34]

2 minutes ago, Finnick said:

THOR RAGNAROK WITH $56.6M,

 

It's funny that Thor 3 managed to beat Thor 2's lifetime DOM-gross in 2 weeks. Kinda acting like the "Captain America 3" of the Thor-franchise. The threequel is the biggest one. First Iron Man 3, then Captain America Civil War and now this.

 

Wonder how that will bode for Guardians of the Galaxy 3?

[That One Girl]

Just now, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

Wonder how that will bode for Guardians of the Galaxy 3?

 

probably a decrease.

[narniadis]

Guardians is already playing at a level that CA & Thor didn't reach until their 3rd films.... kind of hard but not impossible.

 

 

[SteveJaros]

3 hours ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

You are aware that it'll have 200M+ after two weekends, that even if it drops 65% next weekend (holiday fallout + Justice League) it'll still be at around 250M, and that the weekend after that is Thanksgiving which will help smooth out the drop again (and there may or may not be double features with Coco going on all the way through December, until Star Wars hits and gives Thor a small set of double features of its own)? There's no chance it misses 300M now.

 

Face it bub: your WB > Disney club lost. Justice League has no chance of carrying them to victory alone even if it makes 450M. It's sad, because WB had a fantastic 2017, but Ninjago and 2049 underperforming stopped them dead in their tracks regarding their winning chances.

 

FWIW, I didn't say Thor won't reach $300m DOM. I just said that relying on this weekend's drop compared to its first week to project that it will is probably unsound reasoning. It's the underlying reasoning i was questioning, not the outcome. Personally, i think it's about 70% likely TR does schlepp its way over the $300m mark, but by no means a sure thing.

 

And nope, WB is still going to dump Disney, I'm strong on that! Just wait and see. COCO is going to get CRUSHED by JL, a massive flop. Can't wait for that!  

 

Remember, many clowns around here laughed when i predicted WB > DIS months ago, but to their shock it has been WAY closer than they thought it would be. My reasoning has been much stronger, so you should trust me on this.

Edited November 12, 2017 by SteveJaros

[TalismanRing]

1 minute ago, SteveJaros said:

 

FWIW, I didn't say Thor won't reach $300m DOM. I just said that relying on this weekend's drop compared to its first week to project that it will is probably unsound reasoning. It's the underlying reasoning i was questioning, not the outcome. Personally, i think it's about 70% likely TR does schlepp its way over the $300m mark, but by no means a sure thing.

 

And nope, WB is still going to dump Disney, I'm strong on that! Just wait and see. COCO is going to get CRUSHED by JL, a massive flop. Can't wait for that!  

 

Remember, many clowns around here laughed when i predicted that months ago, but to their shock it has been WAY closer than they thought it would be. My reasoning has been much stronger, so you should trust me on this.

[That One Girl]

2 minutes ago, SteveJaros said:

 

FWIW, I didn't say Thor won't reach $300m DOM. I just said that relying on this weekend's drop compared to its first week to project that it will is probably unsound reasoning. It's the underlying reasoning i was questioning, not the outcome. Personally, i think it's about 70% likely TR does schlepp its way over the $300m mark, but by no means a sure thing.

 

And nope, WB is still going to dump Disney, I'm strong on that! Just wait and see. COCO is going to get CRUSHED by JL, a massive flop. Can't wait for that!  

 

Remember, many clowns around here laughed when i predicted WB > DIS months ago, but to their shock it has been WAY closer than they thought it would be. My reasoning has been much stronger, so you should trust me on this.

 

what are you predicting for Last Jedi?  95M?

[narniadis]

I am quite pleased with the Thor # - after the Friday numbers kept dropping I was afraid that 50m might be in danger, but that Saturday jump is great.

 

Murder not hitting the 12m that RTH thought possible is sad, but not unprecedented. It had a solid increase when taking previews into account and should have decent legs - and opened high enough to make 100m a possibility.

Daddys Home 2 - I am impressed it opened so well - will be curious to see if it can leg it out to 100m or if it collapses from here (nothing yet to suggest that.)

 

BM2 had a great hold - will also do better in the long run then opening day / weekend numbers suggested.

 

overall a very solid weekend and the ground work for a decently deep Thanksgiving frame has been set up.

[ThomasNicole]

11 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

It's funny that Thor 3 managed to beat Thor 2's lifetime DOM-gross in 2 weeks. Kinda acting like the "Captain America 3" of the Thor-franchise. The threequel is the biggest one. First Iron Man 3, then Captain America Civil War and now this.

 

Wonder how that will bode for Guardians of the Galaxy 3?

I expecting $ 400M DOM and $ 1B WW [if exchange rates get better till the release]

[MrFanaticGuy34]

5 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

probably a decrease.

DOM-wise....it could either be the in the middle with $345-360M. But if it does increase again....$400M+ would be a nice target.

 

OS+China though.... will do it more favor than it did for the second one. And if it has the CA3/Thor 3-reception, the more the merrier.

Edited November 12, 2017 by MrFanaticGuy34

[narniadis]

2 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

We gotta have the crack-heads so the rest of us look sane....

[Valonqar]

I think that MOTOE may go up with actuals. That Sunday drop doesn't feel right.

[ZeeSoh]

10 minutes ago, Finnick said:

THOR RAGNAROK CROSSED $650M WW, YAAAAAAAAAY

 

Yaas!!! claimed it would be at 650 by Sunday! Locks up 800 ww and 500OS

[narniadis]

2 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

I think that MOTOE may go up with actuals. That Sunday drop doesn't feel right.

While we don't have the age skew yet - assuming its at least 60% over the age of 30 the Sunday drop is reasonable if not a bit lite. -38% would be solid considering fall sundays for adult pics can run over 40%.

[a2k]

Thor2 added 61.3m more to it's cume after a 36.6m 2nd weekend. That's 1.67x the 2nd weekend. It also faced huge comp in the 3rd weekend in CF's 158m+ ow.

Thor3 needs 88.4m more fomr 300m after a 56.6m 2nd weekend. That's 1.56x the 2nd weekend.

 

I am not sold on 320+ cause it needs 1.9x more, but 300-310 looks likely.

Edited November 12, 2017 by a2knet

[MrFanaticGuy34]

1 minute ago, ThomasNicole said:

I expecting $ 400M DOM and $ 1B WW [if exchange rates get better till the release]

Well, if they leave the traditional May opening and put it in the beginning of June instead...maybe $400M will be more doable....considering school would be out in June.

 

Marvel sequels need more legs & breathing room if they're put in the beginning June. I know the beginning of May has been and still is a traditional slot for them....but even then...give up the tradition and pick a new release-strategy. Have to wonder why the ones like CA3 & Avengers 2 didn't open everywhere in the same releases slot in the world. They could have hit bigger WW-openings than what BvS currently has.

[Valonqar]

4 minutes ago, narniadis said:

While we don't have the age skew yet - assuming its at least 60% over the age of 30 the Sunday drop is reasonable if not a bit lite. -38% would be solid considering fall sundays for adult pics can run over 40%.

Ah, I see. Thanks!