expensiveho Posted May 2, 2019 Share Posted May 2, 2019 10 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said: It's cause some people thought Civil War showed signs of a ceiling for the team ups. Clearly Infinity War and Endgame have proven Civil War was a big anomaly. Infinity War proved that CW didn't perform as an Avengers movie, but at EG's rate I don't even think Ultron was an Avengers movie either Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted May 3, 2019 Author Share Posted May 3, 2019 5 hours ago, Rorschach said: That was an OW prediction! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Royce Posted June 7, 2019 Share Posted June 7, 2019 Call me crazy but I still think The Lion King DOM and WW > Endgame DOM and WW 1 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattW Posted June 7, 2019 Share Posted June 7, 2019 1 hour ago, Royce said: Call me crazy but I still think The Lion King DOM and WW > Endgame DOM and WW Yeah just a lil crazy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted June 7, 2019 Share Posted June 7, 2019 My biggest takeaway was just what a huge % of movies predicted didn’t release at the time they were planned when this post was made/won’t release at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCKillswitch123 Posted June 7, 2019 Share Posted June 7, 2019 (edited) On 5/2/2019 at 10:15 PM, expensiveho said: Infinity War proved that CW didn't perform as an Avengers movie, but at EG's rate I don't even think Ultron was an Avengers movie either Ultron performed like a sequel with sequelitis. It opened nearly on par with the 1st movie (its opening was only diminished by the sports events on Saturday), and then wom wasn't extraordinarily good by any stretch of the imagination as people were just like "meh" and sorta gave up. Civil War, to me, is extremely complicated to analyze. I would say it performed like a really, REALLY big solo movie (that's why it never surprised me that it opened in the Iron Man 3 range, since that's where I had it pegged before overprediction-mania started around March/April 2016), that was both elevated and wounded by its own concept. And the overpredictions made sense, since the movie was basically an Avengers movie, only with the word "Captain America" in the title. One can still argue that the OW wouldn't have been anywhere near as high as it was without the amount of characters in the movie, and if it had been more of a crowdpleaser, it could have actually topped Ultron's numbers. But alas, it performed like a Captain America movie featuring almost every major Avenger + some new major characters alongside him, and not like an Avengers movie. The concept of heroes vs. heroes I also think wound up hurting the movie as audiences aren't really fans of seeing the heroes beating each other up rather than beating bad guys up, on top of the movie having a slowish pace and a bloated plot. But yes, Infinity War and Endgame proved that those two films were definitely more of an exception rather than the rule. But even Ultron could have followed the rule a little closer in slightly less unfavorable circumstances (at least when it comes to its OW). @Royce Yyyyyeah, that's not just crazy..... that's kinda ludicrous. Good luck topping 850M DOM and 2.7B WW. If The Lion King makes 700 DOM and 2B WW, that's amazing enough. Edited June 7, 2019 by MCKillswitch123 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darth Lehnsherr Posted June 7, 2019 Share Posted June 7, 2019 Some of these Secret Life of Pets 2 predictions...... A new Despicable Me franchise for Illumination this is not I think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jedijake Posted June 7, 2019 Share Posted June 7, 2019 Disney could end up with 1 movie over $800 million (done) 1 movie in the $700 millions (TROS or TLK) 1 movie in the $600 millions (TROS or TLK) 1 movie in the $500 millions (Frozen 2) 2 movies in the $400 millions (TS4 and CM) 1 movie in the $300 millions (Aladdin-looking more and more likely every day) No movies in the $200 millions (unless Aladdin misses $300 million barely) 2 movies in the $100 millions (Dumbo and Maleficent 2) At THIS point, $4 billion domestic for the Mouse House seems certain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted June 7, 2019 Share Posted June 7, 2019 3 hours ago, jedijake said: Disney could end up with 1 movie over $800 million (done) 1 movie in the $700 millions (TROS or TLK) 1 movie in the $600 millions (TROS or TLK) 1 movie in the $500 millions (Frozen 2) 2 movies in the $400 millions (TS4 and CM) 1 movie in the $300 millions (Aladdin-looking more and more likely every day) No movies in the $200 millions (unless Aladdin misses $300 million barely) 2 movies in the $100 millions (Dumbo and Maleficent 2) At THIS point, $4 billion domestic for the Mouse House seems certain. Okay, but what if instead we move TS4 into the 500s, Frozen into the 600s, and use Maleficent to cover the 200s (~25% fall from first one adjusted gets there). And then Penguins covers the 000s, it’s perfect. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jedijake Posted June 7, 2019 Share Posted June 7, 2019 14 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said: Okay, but what if instead we move TS4 into the 500s, Frozen into the 600s, and use Maleficent to cover the 200s (~25% fall from first one adjusted gets there). And then Penguins covers the 000s, it’s perfect. Then it's better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattW Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 On 5/30/2018 at 9:41 AM, water said: i haven't flexed my box office muscles in a while so i thought this would be a good exercise. here are my very partisan predictions/wishes for everything i think will do over 100m dom, in order of release title ow multi dom os ww httyd3 38 3.6 137 400 537 captain marvel 120 3.5 420 770 1190 shazam 43 2.4 103 250 353 avengers 4 300 3.4 1020 1800 2820 Vs the actual ww numbers: 520 1128 363 2750 Solid predictions there. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 9 minutes ago, MattW said: Vs the actual ww numbers: 520 1128 363 2750 Solid predictions there. At first I was like “wow, da god.” Then I followed the quote back 😛 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The GOAT Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 (edited) On 6/6/2019 at 8:49 PM, Royce said: Call me crazy but I still think The Lion King DOM and WW > Endgame DOM and WW I will not accept this, even if it happens. Edited June 12, 2019 by The GOAT Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tupek Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 On 6/7/2019 at 11:20 AM, Thanos Legion said: Okay, but what if instead we move TS4 into the 500s, Frozen into the 600s, and use Maleficent to cover the 200s (~25% fall from first one adjusted gets there). And then Penguins covers the 000s, it’s perfect. Frozen in the 500s is enough.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darth Lehnsherr Posted June 17, 2019 Share Posted June 17, 2019 On 1/29/2019 at 9:19 AM, Darth Lehnsherr said: 1. Avengers: Endgame 270/700/2.2B 2. The Lion King 240/750/2B 3.Frozen 2 150/500/1.25B 4. Star Wars Episode IX 190/600/1.2B 5. Toy Story 4 150/450/1.05B 6. Detective Pikachu 110/300/1B 7. Spider-Man: Far From Home 140/360/950 8. Captain Marvel 160/430/950 9. Hobbs and Shaw 70/170/900 10. Secret Life of Pets 2 100/320/860 Other Potentials Jumanji 3 70/330/850 So far my Pika Pika and Secret Life of Pets 2 predictions look embarrassing. Also lol at me for not even considering Aladdin for the Top 10 too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EarlyDeadlinePredictions Posted July 10, 2019 Share Posted July 10, 2019 FANDANGO 1. “Avengers: Endgame” (April 26) 2. “Captain Marvel” (March 😎 3. “Star Wars: Episode IX” (Dec. 20) 4. “Spider-Man: Far From Home” (July 5) 5. “Toy Story 4” (June 21) 6. “Glass” (Jan. 18) 7. “The Lion King” (July 19) 8. “Aladdin” (May 24) 9. “Dumbo” (March 29) 10. “Joker” (Oct. 4) ATOM 1.Avengers: Endgame 2.Captain Marvel 3.Spider-Man: Far From Home 4.Toy Story 4 5.The Lion King 6.Star Wars: Episode IX 7.Aladdin 8.X-Men: Dark Phoenix 9.Glass 10.Jumanji Sequel So these were the most anticipated lists from Fandango and Atom and for the most part its turning out accurate. Notable misses would be Xmen, Glass and Dumbo but the first two could just be fanboy bias on these surveys. Star Wars and Jumanji should make bank easily during holidays and Joker has potential. Notable absence of Frozen 2 on both lists due to lack of marketing I would assume. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted July 10, 2019 Share Posted July 10, 2019 (edited) Fandango's most anticipated Top 5's have been incredibly accurate this whole decade for the most part if you go back and look. The big misses have consistently been in the 6-10 range, which is true again this year. Edited July 10, 2019 by MovieMan89 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
water Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 On 5/30/2018 at 8:41 AM, water said: i haven't flexed my box office muscles in a while so i thought this would be a good exercise. here are my very partisan predictions/wishes for everything i think will do over 100m dom, in order of release title ow multi dom os ww lego movie 2 45 3.3 149 150 299 dark phoenix 58 2.9 168 380 548 httyd3 38 3.6 137 400 537 captain marvel 120 3.5 420 770 1190 shazam 43 2.4 103 250 353 avengers 4 300 3.4 1020 1800 2820 aladdin 151 3.2 483 950 1433 godzilla 2 63 2.6 164 350 514 slop2 82 3.2 262 430 692 men in black 63 3.0 189 550 739 toy story 4 75 3.4 255 550 805 spider-man 2 143 2.7 386 750 1136 the lion king 215 4.0 860 1500 2360 hobbs & shaw 65 2.4 156 440 596 artemis fowl 39 2.6 101 150 251 it 2 70 2.5 175 240 415 abominable 55 2.6 143 500 643 ww2 125 2.6 325 450 775 bond 25 85 3.0 255 800 1055 death on the nile 35 3.3 116 300 416 frozen 2 110 3.5 385 1000 1385 star wars 9 185 4.2 777 777 1554 wicked 35 3.5 123 100 223 so as we are on the eve of lion king i was right about lego flopping, it surpassed floppage expectations dark phoenix idk what i was thinking i knew it was a disaster httyd3 now that i'm looking on bom i didn't even realize it did pretty well dom. nailed it ww tho cm nailed it although i should have realized ow would be bigger and more regular legs shazam nailed it although i think i went so low on dom because i was making fun of dc so much at the time 😂 endgame NAILED IT bow down aladdin i was too bullish but i will say that given how it turned out to be a ginormous success (like... 1b is happening disney will find the money) i was accurate in spirit. also best picture godzilla 2 well i saw the drop coming but damn slop2 again saw the drop but holy crap os 💀 mib 😢 ts4 not sure what my reasoning was tbh but ironically i might be close on ww ffh i don't think i even realized it was opening on a tuesday or whatever, i think i'll be close though ok... tlk i'm almost tempted to stand by. right now they're saying previews up to 25m and comparing to jurassic world and incredibles 2 (only other big mid-summer movies) both had 18m thurs and 200 180 ow, so 25 could translate to 200-250 ow.... hobbs & shaw definitely low on os, upping to like 500-800 os i guess? maleficent 2 i'm seeing 60/190/600/790. not sure though frozen 2 idk what i was thinking ow will probably be like at LEAST 150 but maybe 200 if i get hype about the songs, 500 dom (600? that feels too high but it also feels like it should be higher than incredibles 2), os probably like 1.2b, 1.7b ww... sounds crazy to say that but i feel like the math checks out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattW Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 Rank Title (click to view) Studio* Filter A24 Amazon Annapurna Aviron Briarcliff BST BV ENTMP Fathom Focus Fox FoxS FUN LG/S LGF MGM Neon Orion Par. PFR RAtt. SGem Sony SPC STX UAR Uni. WB WB (NL) ALL Worldwide Domestic / % Overseas / % 1 Avengers: Endgame BV $2,794.5 $857.4 30.7% $1,937.1 69.3% 2 The Lion King (2019) BV $1,195.8 $430.9 36.0% $764.9 64.0% 3 Captain Marvel BV $1,128.3 $426.8 37.8% $701.4 62.2% 4 Spider-Man: Far from Home Sony $1,075.3 $360.3 33.5% $715.0 66.5% 5 Aladdin (2019) BV $1,025.6 $350.4 34.2% $675.2 65.8% 6 Toy Story 4 BV $959.3 $410.1 42.7% $549.2 57.3% 5 billion dollar movies so far with a 6th soon to come. Frozen and Star Wars are basically shoe-ins putting the year at 8. Outside shot for Jumanji, nothing else gets close (and even jumanji I think will drop pretty big). 2018 and 2015 both had 5 so this year is a pretty big step up for high end movies. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 (edited) 2019 will put 8 movies in the WW top 45 (probably top 40). Comparison to past years: 2018 5 (5) 2017 5 (5) 2016 5 (5) 2015 7 (6) 2014 2 (2) yikes! 2013 5 (5) 2012 6 (6) TASM 46th 2011 4 (3) 2010 6 (5) 2009 7 (7) 2008 6 (4) 2007 7 (6) 2006 5 (5) 2005 6 (6) 2004 8 (8) 2003 6 (5) 2002 6 (4) 2001 7 (7) 2000 4 (3) So it’s pretty typical to get 5-7 movies per year in the top 45. From now on that will mean 1B+, not too far from now it will mean 1.2B+. Basic billie inflation, won’t be long before we’ve got over 75 and we’re averaging double digits a year. 2019 does still stick out as being above historical norms, with a single year making up 20% of the top 40 not having happened since 2004 (Shrek 2, Azkaban, SM2, The Incredibles, Passion of the Christ, The Day After Tomorrow, Meet The Fockers, and Troy). In fact those 8 all managed to make it into the top 35, we’ll see if 2019 can manage the same. Spoiler Also this is so, so, not a big deal but I just can’t help myself *shoo-in Edited August 5, 2019 by Thanos Legion 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...