kswiston Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 3 minutes ago, Fullbuster said: That would be sad, and damn China doesn't seem to be the growth engine it was before for Hollywood, I hope it's temporary...In the meantime it's time to bet on Mexico, Indonesia, Brazil, other emerging markets. Outside of a few films that resonate with them, Chinese filmgoers have shown a preference for local films as the market continues to expand to less affluent areas. There hasn't been a lot of growth for Hollywood since 2015. Especially if compared to the growth from 2012 to 2015. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SMmadrid90 Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 13 minutes ago, kswiston said: Because the domestic Friday was down 20% from Fantastic Beasts 1 when you screen out previews. And the fact that it is a sequel with poorer WOM, and has a much busier fall slate to compete against in coming weeks makes it unlikely to have the legs of the first film (which were pretty great). $63M this weekend, with similar legs to the Hunger Games sequels is $170-175M domestic. That might end up being generous, as the Mockingjay films were received better by most metrics. User reviews in China are pretty terrible, and the film will be lucky to hit $60M there off of what is looking like a $36-37M opening. Exhibitioners are going to prioritize Venom for holdover business as a bunch of new films hit there next week. The first Fantastic Beasts opened to ~$41M in China and ended up with around $85M. All possibilities and "may be/may be not" based on OD,let's wait a couple of weeks before jumping on conclusions please Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kswiston Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 5 minutes ago, SMmadrid90 said: All possibilities and "may be/may be not" based on OD,let's wait a couple of weeks before jumping on conclusions please If this film breaks the low 700s barrier of $730M in coming weeks, feel free to point out that I was wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barnack Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 22 minutes ago, kswiston said: Outside of a few films that resonate with them, Chinese filmgoers have shown a preference for local films as the market continues to expand to less affluent areas. There hasn't been a lot of growth for Hollywood since 2015. Especially if compared to the growth from 2012 to 2015. And if that graph is true: That 2012-2015 growth was quite China dependent, the International - China in 2015 smaller than in 2012 (maybe that exchange rate dependent, they become quite harsher fall 2014 if I remember correctly), specially compared to that international explosion between early 2000 and 2012. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SMmadrid90 Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 (edited) 23 minutes ago, kswiston said: If this film breaks the low 700s barrier of $730M in coming weeks, feel free to point out that I was wrong. My prediction is $710-740 WW but ok Edited November 17, 2018 by SMmadrid90 $710-740M WW Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salvador-232 Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 (edited) 28 minutes ago, Barnack said: And if that graph is true: That 2012-2015 growth was quite China dependent, the International - China in 2015 smaller than in 2012 (maybe that exchange rate dependent, they become quite harsher fall 2014 if I remember correctly), specially compared to that international explosion between early 2000 and 2012. That's only because in 2014-2015 all ER went to trash. ER now is hardly worse than say, 2016 Edited November 17, 2018 by salvador-232 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 (edited) 5 minutes ago, salvador-232 said: That's only because in 2014-2015 all ER went to trash. ER now is hardly worse than say, 2016 That's true, The Brazilian movie market alone lost almost 50% of its value in USD in 2015! ^^" And something similar but less intense happened in the rest of Latin America. Edited November 17, 2018 by Fullbuster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kswiston Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 (edited) 13 minutes ago, salvador-232 said: That's only because in 2014-2015 all ER went to trash. ER now is hardly worse than say, 2016 The exchange rate crash does make it hard to have apples to apples comparisons of USD international grosses in the first half of this decade vs now. I remember seeing someone mention in the Venom thread that the Spider-man franchise has pretty stable overseas business in the 500Ms (before we knew how big Venom would get in China. It's going to finish well over 600M internationally now). However, that's only true because the Amazing Spider-man movies got a big bump from favorable exchange rates over Homecoming and Venom. Edited November 17, 2018 by kswiston Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrGlass2 Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 48 minutes ago, kswiston said: The exchange rate crash does make it hard to have apples to apples comparisons of USD international grosses in the first half of this decade vs now. In what sense? Studios only care about dollar revenues. To us, the rest doesn't really matter beyond possibly getting sequels or spin-off movies. To measure popularity in general, we would have to take into account a lot more than the exchange rate over the years: economic growth and population for example. It is easier to adjust for inflation in one country, mainly the US (and even then not everyone agrees on the method). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kswiston Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 15 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said: In what sense? Studios only care about dollar revenues. To us, the rest doesn't really matter beyond possibly getting sequels or spin-off movies. To measure popularity in general, we would have to take into account a lot more than the exchange rate over the years: economic growth and population for example. It is easier to adjust for inflation in one country, mainly the US (and even then not everyone agrees on the method). Box office predictions for one. It will probably matter less going forward as we get to mostly sequels for post 2015 films, but a lot of optimistic 2016 to present worldwide predictions were partially based on projecting growth off of 2013 or 2014 USD values overseas instead of local currency. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darth Lehnsherr Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 I honestly thought $600M OS was gonna be a safe bet for this film. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Purple Minion Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaxAggressor Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 (edited) Edited November 18, 2018 by MaxAggressor 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Purple Minion Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaxAggressor Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 https://deadline.com/2018/11/fantastic-beasts-the-crimes-of-grindelwald-opening-weekend-venom-bohemian-rhapsody-china-global-international-box-office-1202504405/ Warner Bros’ Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes Of Grindelwaldcast a $191M spell at the international box office this weekend for a global launch of $253M. The opening in 79 overseas markets is within the range that we were seeing ahead of the bow and surpasses the start of Fantastic Beasts And Where To Find Them by 2%. In 43 individual markets, Newt Scamander and crew opened bigger than their previous outing, and set a series of offshore milestones — but they got licked by Venom in China where the Sony pic has become the 3rd biggest superhero title of all time. Spinoff sequel FB2, directed by David Yates and scripted by JK Rowling, set record openings for the entire Wizarding World in 18 markets. Warner itself logged its best starts of 2018 in 30, namely some of the key European majors like France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blaze Heatnix Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 Lol Deadline, the first Fantastic Beasts didn't have China's number included for its global opening. This one is aready including whatever it made in China. Not good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salvador-232 Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 (edited) 2 minutes ago, Blaze Heatnix said: Lol Deadline, the first Fantastic Beasts didn't have China's number included for its global opening. This one is aready including whatever it made in China. Not good. They already excluded it when doing the comparison. Edited November 18, 2018 by salvador-232 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Muzdt Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 FB2 JW2 AIW BP TLJ T 10,569 18,494 25,650 14,359 9,747 T+1 12,890 21,773 22,762 13,250 10,091 T+2 20,278 35,916 26,538 14,198 13,699 T+3 19,007 36,336 42,070 13,226 13,137 62,744 112,519 117,020 55,033 46,674 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jak Ryan Drake Campbell Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 (edited) Pretty good jump for France, FB1 had made $ 9M on its first 5 days, we are at $ 11.7M, which should correspond to 1.7 / 1,8 million tickets sold, against 1.425 for FB1. Edited November 18, 2018 by Jak Ryan Drake Campbell 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 (edited) Including China's OW FB1's global OW was 258.8 (218.3 + 40.5 Ch ow) compared to FB2's 253 (-2.2% from FB1 instead of +2% that Deadline said). With worse legs and 15% drop expected in Japan, final OS could be down 9-10% from FB1's 580 for 520-530. So 170-180 Dom + 520-530 OS = 690-710 WW Edit: 39 minutes ago, salvador-232 said: They already excluded it when doing the comparison. Their +2% is wrong though. I checked it above. https://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4243&p=.htm Edited November 18, 2018 by a2k Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...