FANTASTIC BEASTS: THE CRIMES OF GRINDELWALD | 495.3 M overseas ● 654.9 M worldwide | Trans Rights are Human Right

[PanaMovie]

530M OS

170M DOM

 

700M WW

[kswiston]

China is going to settle at $55M or less.

 

Domestic is looking like possibly sub $170M. 

 

So $700M is going to depend on strong holds elsewhere. It will need >$475M from the rest of the world. 

 

FB1 did around $495M international outside of China.

 

[Quigley]

On 11/18/2018 at 5:46 PM, a2k said:

Edit:

Their +2% is wrong though. I checked it above.

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4243&p=.htm

I don't think it's wrong. They have updated the article and they explain the methodolgy. They use historical rates. They look at the markets that FB2 opened in and they find the corresponding openings of FB in the same markets (regardless of whether they occurred on the same or different weekends) and they add them up.

 

"The opening in 79 overseas markets is within the range that we were seeing ahead of the bow and surpasses the start of Fantastic Beasts And Where To Find Them by 2.7% when using historical rates on the previous movie."

[ZeeSoh]

5 hours ago, kswiston said:

China is going to settle at $55M or less.

 

Domestic is looking like possibly sub $170M. 

 

So $700M is going to depend on strong holds elsewhere. It will need >$475M from the rest of the world. 

 

FB1 did around $495M international outside of China.

 

 

Its gonna drop around 30m in China. About 54m domestic (assuming a 180m total which seems a bit optimistic at this point) plus about 12-15m in South Korea. 

 

Thats about 96m drop from just 3 territories alone which will bring the total to about 718m (814m of original minus 96m). 

 

It seems that it will also drop in UK (based on its opening there) and probably Japan as well. So even if this one does the same everywhere else as the first one did, it might still not be enough to get to 700m WW. 

 

At this point I think there is a fair chance this finishes in the 600’s

[SMmadrid90]

2 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

 

Its gonna drop around 30m in China. About 54m domestic (assuming a 180m total which seems a bit optimistic at this point) plus about 12-15m in South Korea. 

 

Thats about 96m drop from just 3 territories alone which will bring the total to about 718m (814m of original minus 96m). 

 

It seems that it will also drop in UK (based on its opening there) and probably Japan as well. So even if this one does the same everywhere else as the first one did, it might still not be enough to get to 700m WW. 

 

At this point I think there is a fair chance this finishes in the 600’s

You're assuming it will do the same or drop everywhere but right now it's overperforming in many countries

[Brinatico]

3 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

 

Its gonna drop around 30m in China. About 54m domestic (assuming a 180m total which seems a bit optimistic at this point) plus about 12-15m in South Korea. 

 

Thats about 96m drop from just 3 territories alone which will bring the total to about 718m (814m of original minus 96m). 

 

It seems that it will also drop in UK (based on its opening there) and probably Japan as well. So even if this one does the same everywhere else as the first one did, it might still not be enough to get to 700m WW. 

 

At this point I think there is a fair chance this finishes in the 600’s

Tell me what you drink.

With 700 you could look normal , but with 600 you are a little drunk 

[peludo]

6 hours ago, SMmadrid90 said:

You're assuming it will do the same or drop everywhere but right now it's overperforming in many countries

The fact that a sequel opens better than the previous one is quite normal. In the same way, it is quite normal that a sequel drops deeper than the previous one for the same reason (even more if the sequel is not extremely well received, like this case). The perspective is not too good for FB2. I would not rule out what @ZeeSoh is saying.

 

Just take a look at DOM+China result:

FB1: 234+86=320

FB2: 175+55=230

 

That is a probable $90m drop in just 2 markets, unless it shows a drastic change in its run in both markets.

 

IMO, right now, 675-725 WW is a realistic range.

Edited November 22, 2018 by peludo

[a2k]

5 hours ago, Brinatico said:

Tell me what you drink.

With 700 you could look normal , but with 600 you are a little drunk 

he said 'in the 600s' meaning 600-699 i believe, not 600-609

[a2k]

26 minutes ago, peludo said:

The fact that a sequel opens better than the previous one is quite normal. In the same way, it is quite normal that a sequel drops deeper than the previous one for the same reason (even more if the sequel is not extremely well received, like this case). The perspective is not too good for FB2. I would not rule out what @ZeeSoh is saying.

 

Just take a look at DOM+China result:

FB1: 234+86=320

FB2: 175+55=230

 

That is a probable $90m drop in just 2 markets, unless it shows a drastic change in its run in both markets.

 

IMO, right now, 675-725 WW is a realistic range.

FB1 OS

China 86

Japan 64

OS-Ch-J 430

= 580

 

FB2 OS

China 55

Japan 60 (optimistic)

OS-Ch-J 420 (compared to FB1's 430 I think this is optimistic)

= 535

 

Add to that 175 Dom 710 ww is the most it can do imo.

 

With FB2's mixed reception won't FB3 look at sub-650 ww? The prod budget increased from 180 to 200 and they will have to keep it in check for FB3. If JW2's budget could go down from JW1, I think FB3 can be kept in control compared to FB2. The participation and back-end costs will increase I guess.

[Fullbuster]

That's pretty disappointing in my opinion.

 

I didn't expect a huge growth over the 1st one but at least $850m WW.

 

$675-725m would be a consequent drop.

[ZeeSoh]

7 hours ago, SMmadrid90 said:

You're assuming it will do the same or drop everywhere but right now it's overperforming in many countries

As Peludo already mentioned, it is a sequel and hence was always likely to open bigger than the first one but have smaller legs. With the ratings being what they are, legs are going to be shorter than the first one. 

 

In fact it opened lower than the first one in 4 out of 6 of its biggest markets (Germany being the only exception and its yet to open in Japan). These 6 markets alone contributed almost 2/3rds of the total gross of the first one. And FB2 is gonna drop close to a 100m in just 3 of these markets with at least 2 more of these markets also showing big drops. 

 

So any increase in other countries (mostly in Asian/Latin countries where the market is growing) is easily negated by the drops in the above 6 countries. 

 

6 hours ago, Brinatico said:

Tell me what you drink.

With 700 you could look normal , but with 600 you are a little drunk 

I understand English may not be your first language, so you should try and understand what someone said first before making a stupid comment and making yourself look like a foolish and desperate fanboy. 

 

I said in the 600’s which could mean anywhere from 600 million to 699 million. 

[kswiston]

175-180M domestic for FB2 is dead. It would have to outperform the drops first film going forward to hit 175M.  FB1 made 12.2x its Thanksgiving Wednesday during the rest of its run. FB2 needs 13.6x Wed to hit 175M now. 160M domestic might be optimistic. 

 

So down over 100M between domestic and China. I think that we have enough to call 700M+ unlikely.

Edited November 22, 2018 by kswiston

[KP1025]

It's discouraging to see such a drop from the previous film. I still remember when the first trailer dropped people were even discussing the possibility of hitting $1 billion WW.

[SMmadrid90]

10 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

It's discouraging to see such a drop from the previous film. I still remember when the first trailer dropped people were even discussing the possibility of hitting $1 billion WW.

That predictions were very delusional,not even HP hit $1 billion until the last movie and this movies are spin-offs. 

FB1 grossed $812 WW so if FB2 gross $650-680 the drop wont be too big (HP1 grossed +900 while HP2 grossed +800,a drop pretty similar) but i think for the next movie JK needs help writing the script because the plot of this one is very messy and dense

[KP1025]

Japan is off to a good opening so far.

 

Quote

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald got off to a pretty explosive start on Friday, likely earning over ¥650 million (~$6 million). This would normally be an indicator of a major opening weekend ahead, but Friday was a national holiday and it could have burned off a good amount of demand already. Regardless, the first day, despite the holiday boost, is excellent, and probably means the film will deliver a similar performance as the original -- which, if anyone remembers, managed to outgross the lowest grossing Harry Potter film, Deathly Hallows - Part 1.

This may be the only market that having Johnny Depp in the role will prove beneficial, given his star power here.

It's also worth noting that The Crimes of Grindelwald is the widest release ever in Japan in terms of seating/showtimes, and might have broken the theater count record, too. It's averaging 13 showtimes per location on an average screen seating 286.

 

[a2k]

2 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

Japan is off to a good opening so far.

 

 

Japan needs 55-60 to keep 700 ww alive.

 

170 dom

55 China

420 OS-China-Japan (FB1 was 431 OS-Ch-Japan, so 420 could be optimistic)

55 Japan

= 700

 

If OS-China-Japan comes in lower than 420 which is plausible then Japan will have to make up the difference. Dom could also come in 5 odd lower than 170.

[Olive]

WOM in Japan is terrible(3.2/5 on Yahoo, compared with 3.85 of FB1

[salvador-232]

2 hours ago, Olive said:

WOM in Japan is terrible(3.2/5 on Yahoo, compared with 3.85 of FB1

I don't know if I would read that much on it. Moana has a better score on Yahoo than Frozen and it did $200M less. Coco has even higher score than Moana and grossed less in Yen. Really there isn't much of a correlation. 

 

Likely will have worse legs than the first one but Yahoo isn't Maoyan 

Edited November 23, 2018 by salvador-232

[Fullbuster]

On 11/23/2018 at 5:55 PM, salvador-232 said:

I don't know if I would read that much on it. Moana has a better score on Yahoo than Frozen and it did $200M less. Coco has even higher score than Moana and grossed less in Yen. Really there isn't much of a correlation. 

 

Likely will have worse legs than the first one but Yahoo isn't Maoyan 

 

Everything seems down in Japan anyway, apart from Your Name I don't remember anything being big there.

Edited November 24, 2018 by Fullbuster

[Fullbuster]

On 11/22/2018 at 7:09 PM, SMmadrid90 said:

That predictions were very delusional,not even HP hit $1 billion until the last movie and this movies are spin-offs. 

FB1 grossed $812 WW so if FB2 gross $650-680 the drop wont be too big (HP1 grossed +900 while HP2 grossed +800,a drop pretty similar) but i think for the next movie JK needs help writing the script because the plot of this one is very messy and dense

 

I personally expected $850m, that didn't seem too much to ask...

 

But when China falls it spells trouble...