2017 Critics/Alternate Awards Discussion

[filmlover]

7 hours ago, Jake Gittes said:

Between Oldman and Rockwell when's the last year we had at least two great actors win overdue Oscars for such blatantly unworthy, over-the-top performances? Closest answer I can see is Sean Penn and Tim Robbins for Mystic River

Eh, I'd say Kate Winslet's win for that trash movie was the cream of the crop, even though I just pretend that her Oscar was for Revolutionary Road (a far better movie and performance) from that same year.

[Ithil]

On 2/19/2018 at 7:49 PM, Jake Gittes said:

Between Oldman and Rockwell when's the last year we had at least two great actors win overdue Oscars for such blatantly unworthy, over-the-top performances? Closest answer I can see is Sean Penn and Tim Robbins for Mystic River

Has to be Kate Winslet being nominated for loads of great roles and never winning, then finally winning for a lame role that fulfilled the sketch she did on Extras years earlier.

[Jake Gittes]

7 minutes ago, Ithil said:

Has to be Kate Winslet being nominated for loads of great roles and never winning, then finally winning for a lame role that fulfilled the sketch she did on Extras years earlier.

Definitely up there but I was talking about two such performances in the same year. 

[CoolioD1]

i'd throw allison janney in there and make it three people where that was the case. sure she might not be overdue just because she doesn't have many substantive movie roles but she just seems like the kinda actress for whom getting an oscar is an inevitability. she's so beloved i always kinda figured as soon as she had a decently showy part in an awards contender she'd pick up an oscar but it's a shame it had to be this.

[CoolioD1]

but in terms of your question hmmm i might say freeman and blanchett in '04 not especially egregious but just kinda blandly decent work from both that got them oscars because of perceived dueness (even though blanchett was young and on her second nom then it was such a thing that paltrow "undeservedly" beat her)

[Jake Gittes]

24 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

i'd throw allison janney in there and make it three people where that was the case. sure she might not be overdue just because she doesn't have many substantive movie roles but she just seems like the kinda actress for whom getting an oscar is an inevitability. she's so beloved i always kinda figured as soon as she had a decently showy part in an awards contender she'd pick up an oscar but it's a shame it had to be this.

Even McDormand while the least embarrassing of the four isn't exactly about to win for her finest hour. She's not gonna take it away from someone as great as Dafoe or Metcalf (Ronan would be my pick but I don't feel that strongly about her) and it's a nice bit of history-making since it's even more rare for an actress to win two leading Oscars decades apart than it is for an actor (has this even happened beyond Streep and Hepburn?) but still. Disappointing that we're about to have so many talented people win for subpar work. 

[Cmasterclay]

This is going to be the worst year for acting winners I can think of. McDordman is pretty good but Rockwell and Janney gave some of the least nuanced performances of their entire careers, and Gary Oldman was doing a white version of fucking Norbit. Awful.

 

Also, I'm trying not to read too much into those Oscar ballots that have leaked out but last year they made me think "hmmmmmmmm does Moonlight have a shot?" Anyway, based on them, Shape of Water has this in the bag. 

[SLAM!]

24 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

This is going to be the worst year for acting winners I can think of. McDordman is pretty good but Rockwell and Janney gave some of the least nuanced performances of their entire careers, and Gary Oldman was doing a white version of fucking Norbit. Awful.

 

Also, I'm trying not to read too much into those Oscar ballots that have leaked out but last year they made me think "hmmmmmmmm does Moonlight have a shot?" Anyway, based on them, Shape of Water has this in the bag. 

 

I disagree. Gary Oldman was much less crass than Eddie Murphy. I think Gary Oldman did a fine job, and I think there were plenty of moments where he had nuance- that certainly couldn't be further from the truth in Eddie Murphy's case.

[Cmasterclay]

1 minute ago, slambros said:

 

I disagree. Gary Oldman was much less crass than Eddie Murphy. I think Gary Oldman did a fine job, and I think there were plenty of moments where he had nuance- that certainly couldn't be further from the truth in Eddie Murphy's case.

It was an exaggeration but not as much as it should be. I found him very Mike Myers doing Fat Bastard in that. It's not like there is bad actor noms. Kayuula, DDL, and Denzel are as good a top three noms in that category as any in ages. 

[WrathOfHan]

McDormand and Rockwell are middle of the pack in both of their categories. I'm fine with both of them winning, but upon rewatch, there's really not a whole lot to the characters themselves. That's more of an error on McDonagh's part, but it does impact my view of the performances. Streep/Hawkins and Jenkins/Dafoe would be much better winners IMO

[narniadis]

I would much prefer Jenkins to come in and steal the BSA and Hawkins as well, but I really loved Shape of Water and was rather cold about Billlboards now that I have seen it.

 

Also, Deadline's article earlier today has them speculating that Get Out may be able to pull it off, based on the younger set's votes.... they are using their comparison from last year when the data they saw coming in made Moonlight look like the winner but they stuck with La La Land.

Would be interesting to see the actual breakdowns knowing which film ultimately had the most #1s but still lost. The whole preferential ballot "consensus" choice thing making the actual up/down in the other cats less interesting.

[Webslinger]

Best Actor felt pretty weak this year, which no doubt cleared a path for Gary Oldman to coast to a career honors win for the baitiest role he could get his hands on. Oldman does really solid work in Darkest Hour, but I still had no problem coming up with five other names on my personal ballot despite feeling that the field was thin. It makes me wish that they had given him his Oscar for his superior performance in Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy six years ago.

 

As I said elsewhere yesterday, I wish some delay had forced Fences out of 2016 so that Denzel Washington could have laid waste to everything in his path instead of being left to not even bother with trying to look happy for Casey Affleck.

[4815162342]

The proper Shape of Water supporting actor is Stuhlbarg imo.

[CoolioD1]

3 minutes ago, Webslinger said:

 

As I said elsewhere yesterday, I wish some delay had forced Fences out of 2016 so that Denzel Washington could have laid waste to everything in his path instead of being left to not even bother with trying to look happy for Casey Affleck.

my wish is that people would wise up and award his superior performance in roman j israel  T B H.

Edited March 4, 2018 by CoolioD1

[WrathOfHan]

I think the preferential ballot is going to go like this:

 

9. Darkest Hour: Really, who the fuck is going to place this at #1?

8. The Post: Same deal, but chances are the Darkest Hour people have this in the upper half

7. Dunkirk: There's a decent chance the only categories this wins are the Sounds, and it could go home emptyhanded. It won't have enough #1 votes or higher placements to survive.

6. Call Me by Your Name: Although this has a lot of passion, I don't see many that placed the last three at #1 giving this their #2 or #3 slot. They're somewhat different demos, unlike....

5. Phantom Thread: This one is much more likely to be the alternative to those votes. It has passion among all generations even if the numbers aren't there.

4. Get Out: Keep in mind that this underperformed at BAFTA and has no tech nominations, and there have been reports older members aren't giving it a chance. That alone is enough to cripple this IMO.

3. Lady Bird: Despite not winning any guilds, this is something that may benefit greatly from preferential voting even without #1 votes.

2. Three Billboards: This isn't a divisive in Hollywood as Film Twitter would suggest, but the snub in Director is still weird as fuck.

1. The Shape of Water: I feel comfortable predicting this to win. The only statistic going against it majorly is the lack of a SAG Ensemble nomination, but when Octavia Spencer still managed to get in here, I don't think that's much of an issue. It'll have enough passion and higher placements to win IMO.

[CoolioD1]

octavia spencer really is the most ridiculous acting nomination this year.

[aabattery]

14 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

my wish is that people would wise up and award his superior performance in roman j israel  T B H.

 

When Denzel doesn't win

 

[Webslinger]

17 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

my wish is that people would wise up and award his superior performance in roman j israel  T B H.

I was pretty "meh" on his work in Roman J. Israel, Esq. It's committed and nuanced and one of the few things in the film that doesn't feel like an inconsistent mess, but it doesn't feel like top-tier work. Then again, I still can't figure out how he wasn't in the conversation at all for American Gangster ten years ago (seriously: great performance, big box office hit, and there were multiple scenes ripe for use as his Oscar clip), so I guess my Denzel-related opinions outside of the obvious ones (Glory, Malcolm X, Training Day, Fences) might be a tad odd.

[WrathOfHan]

20 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

octavia spencer really is the most ridiculous acting nomination this year.

It's basically just proof she's going to win another Oscar sooner than later.

[Webslinger]

I came thisclose to jumping ship and going with Get Out as a trendy upset pick, but I can't think of a movie that won Best Picture after losing PGA, DGA, and SAG Ensemble. I'm still not ruling it out as a possible upset (seems crazy to do so with the level of uncertainty in this season), but I don't have the balls to call the win.