ACSlater Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 I have to do 2 hours in the county jail...it's not cool... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dxmatrixdt Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 lol I keep thinking 666 minimum. right?????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junkshop36 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 5 minutes ago, The Greatest Rth said: TLJ 18.1, Jum 7.6, TGS 2.1, F 1.7, Coco 1.3 Seems like a pretty solid number to me. Better than 17.5 lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grim22 Posted December 22, 2017 Author Share Posted December 22, 2017 7 minutes ago, The Greatest Rth said: TLJ 18.1, Jum 7.6, TGS 2.1, F 1.7, Coco 1.3 A 7% increase on Wednesday seems to be on the lower side. Due to Christmas Eve on Sunday, there is a chance TLJ 2nd weekend can be under Rogue One's 2nd weekend with that Thursday number. The 4 day will belong to TLJ but there can definitely be a fight for the 3-day with RO. I think it will be at around 400-410M coming out of Christmas, about 160-170M behind TFA at the same point, just shows what a beast TFA was. Avatar seems safe as well now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Reynolds Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, Matrix4You said: lol I keep thinking 666 minimum. right?????? under a 3.0 multiplier during xmas season is really bad 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porthos Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just now, Ryan Reynolds said: under a 3.0 multiplier during xmas season is really bad 400m+ after OW is really good. (see, two can play at this game ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porthos Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 So what are we looking at as a range for the six day when it comes to Jumanji? 60m out of the cards or is it still in play? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
La Binoche Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 3 hours ago, lancelot123 said: Just like Marvel movies... oh... wait... Marvel movies have different characters, colors, palettes. Yeah they're technically the same shit but they're different enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lancelot Gold Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 (edited) 31 minutes ago, grim22 said: A 7% increase on Wednesday seems to be on the lower side. Due to Christmas Eve on Sunday, there is a chance TLJ 2nd weekend can be under Rogue One's 2nd weekend with that Thursday number. The 4 day will belong to TLJ but there can definitely be a fight for the 3-day with RO. Am I looking at the numbers wrong, cause +7% doesn't seem horrible. TFA was -27.9% R1 with +12.1% but that also had a much worse Wed drop. (mixed up days) I Am Legend was +0.7% Hobbit 1 +4.5% Hobbit 2 +3.9% Seems to be helping to keep the 3.5x or more multiplier alive, which all those movies did. Edited December 22, 2017 by lancelot123 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 4 minutes ago, lancelot123 said: Am I looking at the numbers wrong, cause +7% doesn't seem horrible. TFA was -27.9% R1 with +12.1% but that also had a much worse Wed drop. I Am Legend was +0.7% Hobbit 1 +4.5% Hobbit 2 +3.9% Seems to be helping to keep the 3.5x or more multiplier alive, which all those movies did. TFA's Thursday was Christmas Eve, which is always a big drop. Rogue One's Wednesday drop was 14.9% and Last Jedi's Wednesday drop was 16.6%. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lancelot Gold Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, redfirebird2008 said: TFA's Thursday was Christmas Eve, which is always a big drop. Rogue One's Wednesday drop was 14.9% and Last Jedi's Wednesday drop was 16.6%. Oops, my bad, mixed up my days. I think I was looking at either Tuesday's drop or the super early estimate for Thursday, for Wed's drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lancelot Gold Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 I changed some of my numbers after some research. Being more pessimistic about Christmas Eve and slightly more with other days. Maybe too pessimistic? I'm still well over Deadline's 110m 6-day so I think I'm still being too optimistic. Maybe Friday should only be +40%? That still gives a 148.61m 6-day. Would be curious to see Deadline's daily number predictions. Thursday 18.10m [296.81] Friday 28.96m (+60%) [325.77] Saturday 37.65m (+30%) [363.42] Sunday 22.59m (-40%) [386.01] Monday 40.66m (+80%) [426.67] 3 Day 89.20 4 Day 129.86 5 Day 147.96 6 Day 164.85 Not sure about Tuesday yet. I need to research more. Difficult with the days being different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porthos Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 (edited) 11 minutes ago, lancelot123 said: I changed some of my numbers after some research. Being more pessimistic about Christmas Eve and slightly more with other days. Maybe too pessimistic? I'm still well over Deadline's 110m 6-day so I think I'm still being too optimistic. Maybe Friday should only be +40%? That still gives a 148.61m 6-day. Would be curious to see Deadline's daily number predictions. Thursday 18.10m [296.81] Friday 28.96m (+60%) [325.77] Saturday 37.65m (+30%) [363.42] Sunday 22.59m (-40%) [386.01] Monday 40.66m (+80%) [426.67] 3 Day 89.20 4 Day 129.86 5 Day 147.96 6 Day 164.85 Not sure about Tuesday yet. I need to research more. Difficult with the days being different. Your Fri jump is probably WAY too high for something that's been in the ballpark of R1. R1 jumped 36.3% on its second Friday. I'd go with a 40% Fri jump at most and go from there. Edited December 22, 2017 by Porthos 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fancyarcher Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 (edited) 1 hour ago, Porthos said: So what are we looking at as a range for the six day when it comes to Jumanji? 60m out of the cards or is it still in play? Possibly. Pursuit of Happiness numbers (the only real comparison we have), would put it over 30m (say around 32m), for the weekend, though I question if it can have that kind of jump. Edited December 22, 2017 by Fancyarcher 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonathanLB Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 15 minutes ago, Fancyarcher said: Possibly. Pursuit of Happiness numbers (the only real comparison we have), would put it over 30m (say around 32m), for the weekend, though I question if it can have that kind of jump. I don’t think anyone knows. I think everyone wants to pretend they do. But I think given it has been a more regular type of work week, a 50% Friday increase isn’t by any means out of question. I thought Friday would be upper 20s or $30M before, why should I change my opinion because Thursday was $18M instead of $20M?! Makes no difference to who sees the movie Friday. There’s literally no correlation, just people throwing numbers at a board and hoping they stick. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 22 minutes ago, Porthos said: Your Fri jump is probably WAY too high for something that's been in the ballpark of R1. R1 jumped 36.3% on its second Friday. I'd go with a 40% Fri jump at most and go from there. Sat and Sun holds should be pretty harsh given how the calendar is, so Friday is likely to be where it has a sizable bump. I can see 50%+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brainbug Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Happy to see TLJ increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fancyarcher Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 (edited) 8 minutes ago, JonathanLB said: I don’t think anyone knows. I think everyone wants to pretend they do. But I think given it has been a more regular type of work week, a 50% Friday increase isn’t by any means out of question. I thought Friday would be upper 20s or $30M before, why should I change my opinion because Thursday was $18M instead of $20M?! Makes no difference to who sees the movie Friday. There’s literally no correlation, just people throwing numbers at a board and hoping they stick. I'd say this weekend is a bit of a wildcard in terms of increases, and that includes TLJ as well. Jumanji should do pretty well overall, but really there's not much to compare, so who's to say how well it'll increase today. Edited December 22, 2017 by Fancyarcher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weresweresweres Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Thor over JL? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAR Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 3 hours ago, EmpireCity said: Now that doesn't mean that theaters sometimes don't do it anyways and hope they don't get caught, but if they get caught they risk the studio pulling the movie and possibly whatever other movies they have running at the theater or triggering a penalty rate for missed shows. If a studio suspects this, they can request the projector logs and find out if the movie played or not, and if it didn't then the theater would be in trouble and in violation of their agreement. Most theaters won't pull this in the first 2 weeks of a films release, but if they have old movies hanging around they might steal a show here and there. Do the theatres in the major markets have different agreements than those in a more rural area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
