4-day Weekend Thread: 5-day numbers per BOM - TLJ 99.0M, J:WTTJ 55.4M, PP3 26.4M, TGS 14.4M, F 10.1M, C 8.2M, D 7.7M and an incredible $5,480,000 for Father Figures

[The Panda]

12 minutes ago, Hermia said:

This article talks about the seven months leading up to The Last Jedi compared to the seven months  leading to TFA and Rogue One which means there was already lack of interest!

You skipped over the part that says

 

"Panjiva research analyst Chris Rogers says that part of the problem is the recent Chapter 11 bankruptcy filed by Toys R Us, which not only  has the giant retailer ordering less product but has spooked the industry"

 

Man, a major toy retailer isn't ordering many shipments because it filed for bankruptcy.  I wonder why toy shipments are down?

[Hermia]

1 minute ago, The Last Panda said:

You skipped over the part that says

 

"Panjiva research analyst Chris Rogers says that part of the problem is the recent Chapter 11 bankruptcy filed by Toys R Us, which not only  has the giant retailer ordering less product but has spooked the industry"

 

Man, a major toy retailer isn't ordering many shipments because it filed for bankruptcy.  I wonder why toy shipments are down?

I thought we were blaming Rian Johnson for it.

Yes you are right, i didn't read it all.

[narniadis]

What a whacked Friday... It really is funny - pre OW 700m was my top and I didn't expect it to come as close to TFA as it did. Yet, because of the OW can't help but feel underwhelmed by the numbers - SO FAR.

 

Also - I think both sides of this flame war are on Crack and desperate to be right which is making the reading of this thread miserable. (and trying my patience as I attempt to not block anyone lol.)

 

Heres to hoping that Saturday is just fine.

 

Also - I think I am actually more disappointed in Coco's numbers than TLJ - gonna be a squeaker to 200m now instead of 225 like it had the potential to.

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, narniadis said:

 

Also - I think I am actually more disappointed in Coco's numbers than TLJ - gonna be a squeaker to 200m now instead of 225 like it had the potential to.

That early 2.9 estimate from last night was just mean. Actually had hope it might have crazy late legs and get to 250. Now it's looking like Tangled numbers. Really a travesty given the film's quality, deserves far more. At least OS is with it. 

Edited December 23, 2017 by MovieMan89

[narniadis]

And to the person who says we need a film every now and then to say FU to past historical trends - you are right lol.

 

Also really puts TFA's entire run into perspective - ala the way we looked at Avatar in the years upto 2015.

[narniadis]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

That early 2.9 estimate from last night was just mean. Actually had hope it might have crazy late legs and get to 250. Now it's settling for Tangled numbers. Really a travesty given the film's quality, deserves far more. At least OS is with it. 

 

Yeah - I mean, Deadline has been so good of late - much better than we actually give them credit for - that it is easy to be mad at the "source" but obviously the evening shows didn't deliver, or they were looking at a bad batch of data.

 

I haven't had a chance to see it yet (new baby and all) but everyone I know that has, has raved about it.

[MrFanaticGuy34]

1 hour ago, filmnerdjamie said:

Again... the age-old rule is the new film will pay for the sins of the last.

Good point there....although the supposed ”age-old rule” as you put it....wasn’t/probably won’t be the case for every sequel to an average first film or last predecessor.

 

There are some sequels that either didn’t drop too much or had an increase. Aka..the exceptions.

 

The first Madagascar for example, received mixed results from critics, but still made $193M DOM & $532M WW. Then it’s sequel, ”Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa” still did pretty big DOM-wise. Yes...it dropped from the first film....but i didn’t really pay the sins from the first film (which wasn’t harshly hated by people who saw it) and yet made $180M DOM and increased WW-wise to $603M, with a bit better critical reception. And then ”Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted” came along with the best reception of the franchise. That film made over $216M DOM & $746M WW, since the quality for the third film was high. Wiped out  it’s R-rated counter-competitor ”Prometheus”.

 

Another example is Hotel Transylvania...which hade mixed/lukewarm reception as well..though it made $148M DOM & $358M WW. The mixed critical reception didn’t stop it’s sequel to increase with $169M DOM & $473M WW. Didn’t really pay the sins from the first film.

 

Skyfall also didn’t really pay the sins from Quantum of Solace either....which made $168M DOM & $586M WW, and it rocketed up to $304M DOM & $1.108B WW (first film in the Bond-franchise to do it). Granted it had tons of advantages of being an event-Bond film.

 

DM3 this year, didn’t drop too much though. Sure it dropped to $264M DOM...($104M less than DM2 and $72M less than Minions) but still made over $1.033B WW. Not that much of a ”sin-payment”.

 

War for the Planet of the Apes....did drop sadly....but more for a different reason...not because of the sins of ”Dawn” (which there weren’t any whatsoever). Same thing can be said about ”Kung Fu Panda 3” dropping to $143M DOM. $22M less than ”Kung Fu Panda 2” with $165M, although not by too much.

[a2k]

15 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Also - I think I am actually more disappointed in Coco's numbers than TLJ - gonna be a squeaker to 200m now instead of 225 like it had the potential to.

if Tangled made it to 200,

        coco                      tangled

Est. $1,854,000 +41.2% / -17.7% $157,973,128 / 31

$1,722,293 -34.8% / -21.1% $138,989,800 / 31

 

then 220 is still open for Coco. Just that 230-240 looks impossible. I think 210 is low-end, 220 realistic and 230 high-end. Coco will be close to 190 by New Years Monday http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=daily&id=tangledcoco.htm

Edited December 23, 2017 by a2knet

[KeithF1138]

1 hour ago, Lordmandeep said:

 

Its never that simplistic.

 

When the director takes everything set up by JJ in SW7 and throw out the window to seem edgy and cool and says fuck off to fans.

 

What you thin would happen? 

I want to know what he threw out the window. People say general stuff like this and never back it up.

[narniadis]

5 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

Good point there....although the supposed ”age-old rule” as you put it....wasn’t/probably won’t be the case for every sequel to an average first film or last predecessor.

 

There are some sequels that either didn’t drop too much or had an increase. Aka..the exceptions.

 

The first Madagascar for example, received mixed results from critics, but still made $193M DOM & $532M WW. Then it’s sequel, ”Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa” still did pretty big DOM-wise. Yes...it dropped from the first film....but i didn’t really pay the sins from the first film (which wasn’t harshly hated by people who saw it) and yet made $180M DOM and increased WW-wise to $603M, with a bit better critical reception. And then ”Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted” came along with the best reception of the franchise. That film made over $216M DOM & $746M WW, since the quality for the third film was high. Wiped out  it’s R-rated counter-competitor ”Prometheus”.

 

Another example is Hotel Transylvania...which hade mixed/lukewarm reception as well..though it made $148M DOM & $358M WW. The mixed critical reception didn’t stop it’s sequel to increase with $169M DOM & $473M WW. Didn’t really pay the sins from the first film.

 

Skyfall also didn’t really pay the sins from Quantum of Solace either....which made $168M DOM & $586M WW, and it rocketed up to $304M DOM & $1.108B WW (first film in the Bond-franchise to do it). Granted it had tons of advantages of being an event-Bond film.

 

DM3 this year, didn’t drop too much though. Sure it dropped to $264M DOM...($104M less than DM2 and $72M less than Minions) but still made over $1.033B WW. Not that much of a ”sin-payment”.

 

War for the Planet of the Apes....did drop sadly....but more for a different reason...not because of the sins of ”Dawn” (which there weren’t any whatsoever). Same thing can be said about ”Kung Fu Panda 3” dropping to $143M DOM. $22M less than ”Kung Fu Panda 2” with $165M, although not by too much.

Posts like this though just remind us that in some instances there is nothing to explain why films behave like they do.... Kung Fu Panda is a great example of this - all 3 are well regarded films and yet each in turn diminished from the other in OW and in Total Gross...

[narniadis]

1 minute ago, a2knet said:

if Tangled made it to 200,

Est. $1,854,000 +41.2% / -17.7% $157,973,128 / 31

$1,722,293 -34.8% / -21.1% $138,989,800 / 31

 

then 220 is still open for Coco. Just that 230-240 looks impossible. I think 210 is low-end, 220 realistic and 230 high-end.

 

Huh, guess my memory is playing tricks on me cause I thought Tangled was farther along at this point... well that is slightly better lol thanks for making me feel good.

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, KeithF1138 said:

I want to know what he threw out the window. People say general stuff like this and never back it up.

Here's a decent place to start (SPOILERS IN THIS ARTICLE OBVIOUSLY):

https://www.thewrap.com/10-plot-threads-force-awakens-set-last-jedi-blew-off/

[Impact]

Well if I see anything else this year in theaters it will probably be Jumanji. (I never got a chance to see Coco-glad I didn't see it though when I wanted to in November, considering it had a short that should of just been made for TV, I could still see it though)

[ThomasNicole]

I'm also disappointed with Coco numbers [it's not bad, but the $ 2.9M projection from yesterday was really exciting], but at least will still have a good drop this weekend and it's right on track to $ 200M, which is more than almost everyone expecting before the release

[Fancyarcher]

3 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

I'm also disappointed with Coco numbers [it's not bad, but the $ 2.9M projection from yesterday was really exciting], but at least will still have a good drop this weekend and it's right on track to $ 200M, which is more than almost everyone expecting before the release

That number is very disappointing. Looks like Star Wars and the competition took a bigger chunk out of its audience then anyone expected. Still it's doing very well overseas, and it should cross 200m at least.

[Hatebox]

Someone on my Facebook newsfeed just posted something along the lines of 'just got back from last jedi, whole thing was just a long toy commercial!!'

 

I resisted the urge to reply 'is this the first Star Wars movie you've ever seen?'

[ThomasNicole]

I'm probably a minority here who is not concerned at all with TLJ box office

 

It will do $ 650M [maybe $ 700M if next week surprises], which is exactly what i'm expecting

 

Adjusted... TESB drop almost $ 600M from ANH, AOTC drop almost $ 300M from TPM, TLJ probably will drop the same $ 300M

So for me the TLJ performance is normal

 

EP IX will grow a lot, like all 3rd movies in SW trilogies grow

[John Marston]

Wonder if Jumanji could outgross Coco

 

[a2k]

sat bumps for sw8 (fri 24.68):

  5% 25.9

10% 27.15

15% 28.4

20% 29.6

[ThomasNicole]

8 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Wonder if Jumanji could outgross Coco

 

Domestic i think it will... Coco probably will finish with $ 205 - 215M

Jumanji could finish with $ 230 - 240M

 

Worldwide, Coco will win easily

 

But for me both movies was surprising, i think no one expecting these numbers 3 months ago