4-day Weekend Thread: 5-day numbers per BOM - TLJ 99.0M, J:WTTJ 55.4M, PP3 26.4M, TGS 14.4M, F 10.1M, C 8.2M, D 7.7M and an incredible $5,480,000 for Father Figures

[aabattery]

2 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

 

Adding Asian characters in a film is rarely a draw in itself for Chinese audiences unless they are played by someone really well-known. Rogue One had Donnie Yen (one of the biggest names in China), and that still only propelled it to $69 million. 

 

Nice

[MovieMan89]

Looking at all the releases for the Holiday, Jumanji almost had to do well by default. Everything else besides TLJ  is kinda tanking. Next year's Holiday crop is going to wipe the floor with this year's. 

[Mojoguy]

Looking at all the releases for the Holiday, Jumanji almost had to do well by default. Everything else besides TLJ is kinda tanking. Next year's Holiday crop is going to wipe the floor with this year's.

There is already a club topic on the first page of this forum saying Jumanji would tank with under $116m DOM.
Saying everyone predicted Jumanji would do great is revisionist history.

Edited December 24, 2017 by Mojoguy

[Rebeccas]

16 minutes ago, slambros said:

 

This surprises me because I would've thought more Chinese audience members would go see it because of the new Asian-ethnicity character.

China doesn’t really care for pandering. 

[Orestes]

1 minute ago, Rebeccas said:

China doesn’t really care for pandering. 

Also she's Vietnamese, not Chinese.

[Galupp]

Just now, Orestes said:

Also she's Vietnamese, not Chinese.

She's American 

[MovieMan89]

5 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

There is already a club topic on the first page of this forum saying Jumanji would tank with $116m DOM.
Saying everyone predicted Jumanji would do great is revisionist history.

I always predicted it would do well. But yes, you're definitely right it had a lot of naysayers. I'm just saying it almost had to do well with how everything else besides TLJ has bombed and there aren't any significant November holdovers either (Coco not even making much of a dent). Audiences need more than just one movie for the holidays. 

[IronJimbo]

Weird casting TFA did was hire Yayan Ruhian and not make him

 do any martial arts, what was the point in that?

[JB33]

ROGUE ONE had accumulated 53.7% of its domestic gross at the 10 day mark. Using that same figure, THE LAST JEDI would end up with $679,866,585. Is it safe to say that, given the Calendar, TLJ might be a little more backloaded? If so, it has a chance to crack $700M.

[redfirebird2008]

Just now, JB33 said:

ROGUE ONE had accumulated 53.7% of its domestic gross at the 10 day mark. Using that same figure, THE LAST JEDI would end up with $679,866,585. Is it safe to say that, given the Calendar, TLJ might be a little more backloaded? If so, it has a chance to crack $700M.

 

Yes, that is what we expect. Hopefully it can get to 700. Not guaranteed though. 

[Mojoguy]

ROGUE ONE had accumulated 53.7% of its domestic gross at the 10 day mark. Using that same figure, THE LAST JEDI would end up with $679,866,585. Is it safe to say that, given the Calendar, TLJ might be a little more backloaded? If so, it has a chance to crack $700M.

TLJ is a sequel with mixed WOM, so it won't be more backloaded than R1.

[estebanJ]

9 hours ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Disappointment? It opened way above expectations (I remember quite a bunch of people having it at 55-60M for the 5-day), its drops have been mostly on par or better than Moana's, and it's on track for 200M+ DOM. And it had zero marketing to boot. Many a box office fan predicted it to be another Good Dinosaur as it was another 2nd Pixar movie in a year with dead marketing in the wake of a Star Wars episode - what kept Coco alive was the brilliant wom that really pushed its numbers far above the expected. And it has already outgrossed the equally budgeted Summer release Cars 3 domestically. How is that a disappointment?

 

That is why nobody wants to recognize that: because it's not a disappointment. Just because it doesn't live up to its crazy international numbers, that doesn't make Coco a DOM disappointment, given that its performance will match somewhere in the upper end of expectations. Hell, nobody expected Coco to completely overperform OS like it has, not even in Mexico.

IMO, the only way to not call CoCo a USA disappointment is if we just no longer regard Pixar films as blockbuster releases. I'm not ready to concede on that yet. 

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, JB33 said:

ROGUE ONE had accumulated 53.7% of its domestic gross at the 10 day mark. Using that same figure, THE LAST JEDI would end up with $679,866,585. Is it safe to say that, given the Calendar, TLJ might be a little more backloaded? If so, it has a chance to crack $700M.

It may be more backloaded for now, but once the Holidays end, I fully expect it to hold up worse than R1. So 680 still sounds like a good bet to me. 

[Deep Wang]

57 minutes ago, Rebeccas said:

So if we just take out Sunday’s number out of the equation and replace it with Monday’s projection instead, the 3 day weekend number comes out to like $85m, isn’t that still a 61% drop?

 

I mean, if we are talking hypotheticals, let's take the $45m in previews out of the opening weekend while we're at it. 

 

That means it drops from $175m to $85m. 

 

Only a 51% drop. 

 

[TwoMisfits]

8 minutes ago, estebanJ said:

IMO, the only way to not call CoCo a USA disappointment is if we just no longer regard Pixar films as blockbuster releases. I'm not ready to concede on that yet. 

I actually agree - at the Pixar budget it had, it's gonna be a US disappointment...it may not even match its production budget here...edit, although now I see $175M is the rumor (not the $200M+), and it should eek that out...but still...

Edited December 24, 2017 by TwoMisfits

[MovieMan89]

6 minutes ago, estebanJ said:

IMO, the only way to not call CoCo a USA disappointment is if we just no longer regard Pixar films as blockbuster releases. I'm not ready to concede on that yet. 

It's definitely disappointing by Pixar standards. It may come under Cars 2 in admissions, which only puts it ahead of Cars 3 and The Good Dinosaur. I think the opening was good considering I felt the marketing was way too low key and didn't sell the movie well. But the legs and WOM should be through the roof, imo, and instead it appears to be merely "good." May not even beat Tangled's 5 day multi. I really hope it wasn't a certain loony demo of the country that elected you know who that stopped it from reaching its potential, but given the quality of the film - and my own anecdotal experience with moronic comments I heard about it from someone -I kind of can't help but wonder...

[TwoMisfits]

2 minutes ago, Darth Boh-ne'er said:

 

I mean, if we are talking hypotheticals, let's take the $45m in previews out of the opening weekend while we're at it. 

 

That means it drops from $175m to $85m. 

 

Only a 51% drop. 

 

Actually, I think $175M to weekend actual is fair...Friday would be the Sunday and Sunday would be the Friday (having some "wasted time")...so $175M to $67M would be the most "fair" drop to compute...

[Mojoguy]

I mean, if we are talking hypotheticals, let's take the $45m in previews out of the opening weekend while we're at it.

That means it drops from $175m to $85m.

Only a 51% drop.

Now you are just trying to make TLJ look good even if it makes no sense.

If Thursday night previews showings didn't exist, those people WOULD have seen it on Friday.

[franfar]

TLJ was great (esp. the action scenes), although it felt a bit long. 8/10

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

It's definitely disappointing by Pixar standards. It may come under Cars 2 in admissions, which only puts it ahead of Cars 3 and The Good Dinosaur. I think the opening was good considering I felt the marketing was way too low key and didn't sell the movie well. But the legs and WOM should be through the roof, imo, and instead it appears to be merely "good." May not even beat Tangled's 5 day multi. I really hope it wasn't a certain loony demo of the country that elected you know who that stopped it from reaching its potential, but given the quality of the film - and my own anecdotal experience with moronic comments I heard about it from someone -I kind of can't help but wonder...

Nah, I think it had a lot of factors...

1. Length with the short and the division over the short 

2. Seasonality

3. Fast screen/showing drop thanks to TLJ and tons of Xmas movies...Moana held them so much better last year...

4. Lots of animated and family movies around, even if they didn't hit big...every little cut matters

5. Moviepass - kids don't have them...maybe this is the movie that started to matter for animateds...I mean, Ferdinand is going nowhere...The Star, even with its nice little leg out, went really nowhere (although it will do 2x its budget DOM)...I'd watch all the animated releases coming and see where it goes...summer ones should hold up the "best", but it should be interesting to watch for them...

 

I mean, Moviepass is moving to 2 million adult users and counting...how much is this now as a % of routine moviegoers?