Tuesday Numbers (Dec 26): TLJ 27.7, Jumanji: 17.1, PP3 7.4, TGS 5.1 (actuals/estimates)

[Brainbug]

30 minutes ago, Kramerica1975 said:

 

 

 

Who would have expected this a couple of weeks ago?

A comedy sequel in 2017, there was a good chance it would fail.

Happy for the film, I liked it a lot.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nice to see it crossing the milestone, now we need MOTOE to get there too.

[Barnack]

7 hours ago, TheForceuser707 said:

Really?

 

Then why is TLJ the only Star Wars sequel to make LESS on its OW than its predecessor?

Most of them had a market growth for the opening weekend.

 

64m was the largest opening weekend in 1999 and Star Wars did it with an wednesday opening.

 

Attack of the Clones 80m was only 3rd best of 2002, 9 movies did 50m that year vs 2 in 1999. Not sure Attack of the clones really made a better OW than is predecessor.

 

 

[FantasticBeasts]

34 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Honestly, i have to disagree. Even with the best WOM in the world, TLJ would have always been more frontloaded and less leggy than TFA. TFA was a true cultural phenomenon, the return of Star Wars. People saw it that will never see a movie again in theaters. Its drops were never achievable for any SW movie again.

 

If the WOM for TLJ would be less mixed, we would see better drops, yes. But TFA's drops and numbers were never the goal.

Show me one person who predicted an 220m OW and a total less than 700m.

I really think there is not one.

I think most people did think that this will reach a x3.5 multiplier and to be honest it was far from crazy-talk..

[RandomCat]

having fun fiddling with dials, and the proof I have no idea what I'm doing. still confidant this hits 700M.

[Valonqar]

23 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

The MCU i think is its own thing. The bad taste from Thor 2 got washed away by the vastly better Marvel Films that followed (CA:WS, GOTG,) and the marketing for Thor was top-notch. Some of the best trailers of all time, showcasing the fun nature of the film unlike its dull predecessor. The two Marvel Films that came before it this year were also very-well liked by audiences, Marvel Studios just stands for delivering what audiences want these days.

All of this but especially bolded. MCU is really one enormous franchise where GOTG quality, for example, can lift interest in Thor 3 even though the latter is no sequel to the former. But people understand that it's the same universe so one movie's success boosts another movie's success even though they are basically connected only by their brand name. 

[a2k]

 

 

[Brainbug]

Just now, FantasticBeasts said:

Show me one person who predicted an 220m OW and a total less than 700m.

I really think there is not one.

I think most people did think that this will reach a x3.5 multiplier and to be honest it was far from crazy-talk..

 

I predicted a 210M OW and 710M DOM total. A 3,38 multi which i thought was reasonable. Mixed WOM can bring you down a lot, which we can see right now. However while i wanted to see Avatar fall again, it was unrealistic to expect that from the start.

 

I was one of those people that simply forgot the typical SW pattern. ESB and AOTC both fell 30% from their predecessors, so we all should have expected a 30% drop from TFA (655M) all along. The hype and the fact that i love the movie to pieces got me to raise my predictions, but in hindsight, a very big drop was kinda unavoidable.

 

And again, multipliers are not a holy tempel of wisdom. DH2 was a universally loved film and had a shitty multi, because it was so frontloaded. TLJ was also very frontloaded and when you get that and the only mixed WOM, the drops seem harsh.

[Lordmandeep]

People are not upset about fan theories not being met.

 

There are a ton of fan theories for TFA that ended up being totally wrong, but people overwhelmingly liked the direction JJ took the film.

 

Rian Johnson upended expectations and that alone to some is great filmmaking and a great film, but to others, if the choices made don't really seem as interesting, then frankly people don't like the final product as much.

 

Some would say that is not an objective critique of the film and just fanboying.

 

 

Well this is a Star Wars film after all where even secondary characters have a staple of pop culture, the film will be fanboyed to death. 

 

 

 

 

[StarWarsBGFan]

3 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

ESB and AOTC both fell 30% from their predecessors, so we all should have expected a 30% drop from TFA (655M) all along.

Empire fell 16% from A New Hope. ANH made 215 on its original 1977 release and TESB made 181 on its original 1980 release. ANH's gross in BOM includes its 1978, 1979, and 1981 re-releases. TESB's gross in BOM includes its 1981 re-release.

[Brainbug]

Just now, StarWarsBGFan said:

Empire fell 16% from A New Hope. ANH made 215 on its original 1977 release and TESB made 181 on its original 1980 release. ANH's gross in BOM includes its 1978, 1979, and 1981 re-releases. TESB's gross in BOM includes its 1981 re-release.

 

Thats fair to point out, the movies released in the 70s and 80s just had such different release strategys. Phenomenons like E.T. used to be in theaters for over a year. Now nearly all movies make nearly all their money in the first 4 weeks.

 

However, AOTC is a good comparison, because it also had mixed (or even bad) WOM and even theatralic moviegoing beeing much more popular in 2002, its run wasnt very good for a SW movie.

Its important to remember ofc, that The Last Jedi will blow AOTC adjusted gross OUT OF THE SK....Water @ReyReyBattery

[Ethan Hunt]

In the theatre for The Disaster Artist

[LinksterAC]

24 minutes ago, Sand-omJC said:

having fun fiddling with dials, and the proof I have no idea what I'm doing. still confidant this hits 700M.

Just for shits and giggles I modeled TLJ through the holidays using the "Top-12" drops and gains from 2006 (from BOM). 

 

The deviations in my model are: I used a steeper drop for today's number to account for yesterday's Discount Tuesday effect, and I sometimes rounded in the tenths of million place to save myself some work.

 

Date	Weekday	Daily	% change
Through 25-Dec		395.6
26-Dec	Tuesday	28.2
27-Dec	Wednesday	22.6	-20%
28-Dec	Thursday	21.4	-5%
29-Dec	Friday	25.9	21%
30-Dec	Saturday	27.5	6%
31-Dec	Sunday	18.1	-34%	WKND-3	71.6
1-Jan	Monday	21.8	20%	WKND-4	93.3
2-Jan	Tuesday	10.9	-50%
3-Jan	Wednesday	7.3	-33%
4-Jan	Thursday	6.9	-5%
5-Jan	Friday	16.0	131%
6-Jan	Saturday	21.6	35%
7-Jan	Sunday	12.5	-42%	WKND	50.1
CUME		636.4

 

From that point in its run forward, RO made another $55M or so.  If TLJ can match that, it would get to $691M, so within spitting distance.

Edited December 27, 2017 by LinksterAC

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, LinksterAC said:

Just for shits and giggles I modeled TLJ through the holidays using the "Top-12" drops and gains from 2006 (from BOM). 

 

The deviations in my model are: I used a steeper drop for today's number to account for yesterday's Discount Tuesday effect, and I sometimes rounded in the tenths of million place to save myself some work.

 

Date	Weekday	Daily	% change
Through 25-Dec		395.6
26-Dec	Tuesday	28.2
27-Dec	Wednesday	22.6	-20%
28-Dec	Thursday	21.4	-5%
29-Dec	Friday	25.9	21%
30-Dec	Saturday	27.5	6%
31-Dec	Sunday	18.1	-34%	WKND-3	71.6
1-Jan	Monday	21.8	20%	WKND-4	93.3
2-Jan	Tuesday	10.9	-50%
3-Jan	Wednesday	7.3	-33%
4-Jan	Thursday	6.9	-5%
5-Jan	Friday	16.0	131%
6-Jan	Saturday	21.6	35%
7-Jan	Sunday	12.5	-42%	WKND	50.1
CUME		636.4

 

From that point in its run forward, RO made another $55M or so.  If TLJ can match that, it would get to $691M, so within spitting distance.

 

Thats very optimistic. Staying flat with its 2nd weekend is highly unlikely i think and the drop-off after the holiday season could be harsh.

 

Of course, im hoping to be totally wrong though

[a2k]

22 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

I was one of those people that simply forgot the typical SW pattern. ESB and AOTC both fell 30% from their predecessors, so we all should have expected a 30% drop from TFA (655M) all along. The hype and the fact that i love the movie to pieces got me to raise my predictions, but in hindsight, a very big drop was kinda unavoidable.

It would have made 692 if it followed AOU's drop from TA. AOU also followed (3) 'spin-offs' using up some of TA's goodwill. So it was a similar case as TFA, RO, TLJ. I think if it were closer to 700 than 650, say 680 or more, folks would still find a way to be content. If it falls below JW and misses 650, it kinda leave a bad taste in my mouth despite the numbers being huge as such. But you are right that it's bo performance is not without precedent.

 

The drop in legs is similar to AOU too. AOU did 2.4x compared to TA's 3.0x. That's a 20% drop in multiplier which would give TLJ 3.0x compared to TFA's 3.76x. But AOU's drop in ow was 8% vs 12% for TLJ's, giving a bigger dom drop to TLJ.

Edited December 27, 2017 by a2knet

[Ethan Hunt]

Surprisingly the theatre is moderately full

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

4 minutes ago, LinksterAC said:

Just for shits and giggles I modeled TLJ through the holidays using the "Top-12" drops and gains from 2006 (from BOM). 

 

The deviations in my model are: I used a steeper drop for today's number to account for yesterday's Discount Tuesday effect, and I sometimes rounded in the tenths of million place to save myself some work.

 

Date	Weekday	Daily	% change
Through 25-Dec		395.6
26-Dec	Tuesday	28.2
27-Dec	Wednesday	22.6	-20%
28-Dec	Thursday	21.4	-5%
29-Dec	Friday	25.9	21%
30-Dec	Saturday	27.5	6%
31-Dec	Sunday	18.1	-34%	WKND-3	71.6
1-Jan	Monday	21.8	20%	WKND-4	93.3
2-Jan	Tuesday	10.9	-50%
3-Jan	Wednesday	7.3	-33%
4-Jan	Thursday	6.9	-5%
5-Jan	Friday	16.0	131%
6-Jan	Saturday	21.6	35%
7-Jan	Sunday	12.5	-42%	WKND	50.1
CUME		636.4

 

From that point in its run forward, RO made another $55M or so.  If TLJ can match that, it would get to $691M, so within spitting distance.

Key number here is going to be this Friday. Not sure it can do +20% as RO only went up about 6%. Not impossible though

[LinksterAC]

2 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Thats very optimistic. Staying flat with its 2nd weekend is highly unlikely i think and the drop-off after the holiday season could be harsh.

 

Of course, im hoping to be totally wrong though

Like I said, I just followed the overall market drops and gains from 2006.  I didn't know where it would end up when I started, and I was frankly surprised it landed as high as it did, so I'm not sure "optimistic" would be the word.

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, a2knet said:

The drop in legs is similar to AOU too. AOU did 2.4x compared to TA's 3.0x. That's a 20% drop in multiplier which would give TLJ 3.0x compared to TFA's 3.76x. But AOU's drop in ow was 8% vs 12% for TLJ's, giving a bigger dom drop to TLJ.

 

The OW comparisons between TLJ and AOU are a bit unfair though, since AOU's Saturday was deflated (that Mayweather fight thing). That was also the reason it dropped only 11% on Sunday, enjoying some spillover, but the OW could have touched 195M+ imo if it wasnt for that boxing match attracting so many viewers.

[Brainbug]

4 minutes ago, LinksterAC said:

Like I said, I just followed the overall market drops and gains from 2006.  I didn't know where it would end up when I started, and I was frankly surprised it landed as high as it did, so I'm not sure "optimistic" would be the word.

 

Lets hope it follows that model. Ive lost my personal optimism for its run a bit.

[Valonqar]

MOLLY'S GAME
$668K Tuesday 
$1.7M Total (North America)

 

LADY BIRD
$428K Tuesday 
$29.1M Total (North America)

 

ALL THE MONEY IN THE WORLD
$1.76M Tuesday 
$4.36M Total (North America)

 

JUMANJI: WELCOME TO THE JUNGLE
$17.1M Tuesday 
$89.1M Total (North America)